Okay, so the only other model which goes far enough out to see this arctic high developing is the JMA. At 192, significantly weaker than the GFS, GEM, and ECM. But nevertheless there definately are some warmer colours on that pacific side, with the high moving north towards greenland. WAA is present too, although not the blowtoarch that the ECM suggested. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

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At T144 the UKMO and the GFS and the ECMWF Models show large UK NE mid Atlantic NW Euro High, Low Over Iceland and Newfounland and the Iceland Low spread across to NW Norway with all of them indicating A Zonal Active tied up PFJ flow.

One Sneaky bit of low level interest is on the ECMWF 12z run - Cold NW Flow might cross Iceland and head to the UK, while maybe (not that certain yet) is A Deep PV Low spin over E Canada through Newfoundland - and The UK Mid NE Atlantic High to maybe head in to Western an Atlantic at t192 hrs via ECMWF.

By the way t144 UKMO and GFS at t144 are still good with Mid NE USA High, NW and N Atlantic LP Zonal Westerly's blowing strong with warm air mass through Mid E N USA Central Mid and NE Atlantic with the att120 and t144hr areas of Low Pressure spread an Atlantic and SE Arctic Norwegian Sea areas upper Westerlies.

ECMWF at t168 and t192 will be possible but the t144h GFS appear to not aim to agree for that time- we will have to be very patient for any wishes for a Arctic NNW from Iceland at t168 & 192, more support from UKMO and GFS needed during next five days.

Watch it but I am not at all confident about a Northerly Arctic 28-29th November time yet, get the other models to show it as we get nearer time then believe it.

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I would argue that the stage is not yet prepared by the 29th, but by the time we get to the 4th-5th december things could get very interesting indeed. What I see in those late ECM charts (168 onwards) is something really interesting starting to develop over the pacific arctic. It may come to nothing of course, but all the models are showing it - even the JMA. Some time needs to be allowed for the two anticyclones to merge, and even then the mid atlantic high needs to be disposed of in one way or another, so its not a quick transition by any means. The fact there is any attempt at all of a northerly incursion on the 29th I would simply intepret as evidence for this transition. 

 

I mean it could even take longer, the GFS actually only has the cold air over the UK by the 7th (which is a 384 chart). If the pattern sets up as is being suggested on the major models by 216ish or before. I suppose it could take anything from a day to a week for it to come our way, assuming it doesn't deterorate in the process (although there is no evidence for this). 

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I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm around as usual and enjoying the debate immensely without needing to contribute.
Keep it up, and if any of you guys can conjure up a sudden pattern change to deliver a freezing blast then good on ya'.

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Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday November 21st 2013.

All models show High pressure in control of the UK weather for the reliable future which is about 7 days at the moment. The High pressure will generally stay just to the West of the UK and although innitially has well broken cloud on it's UK flank will with time fill in with cloud and milder air rounding the Northern periphery of the High and down over the UK next week. As a result the chilly weekend to come with some frost and fog patches will become less chilly next week but fairly uninspiring as a lot of cloud sets in with even a little drizzly rain possible with probable low light levels at times. Night time frosts will become much less widespread as will fog but this may appear on the hilltops at times.

GFS shows little change as we move through the latter stages of the run, firstly pulling the High just to the South of us with a mild Westerly flow before falling pressure brings the chance of something a little more changeable and volatile by the end of the run.

UKMO shows High pressure anchored near Southern ireland with a light and moist Northerly flow over the UK. It is likely to be cloudy for many but with a few holes in places allowing a little sunshine here and there and mist, fog and frost patches overnight but in general conditions will be very average temperature wise.

GEM looks like GFS tonight dropping High pressure down into France later next week with mild and windier Westerly winds bringing the threat of rain to the North but precious little in the South.

NAVGEM holds High pressure to the SW of the UK with a slight NW flow over the UK with cloud laden skies and generally benign weather conditions with temperatures showing little diurnal variation.

ECM shows High pressure out to the West and SW with a slack airflow over the UK biasing Northerly in direction. Some more interesting conditions do threaten the NE, East and SE periphery of the UK at times but become quickly thwarted by returning tropical maritime air rounding the High to the SW.

The GFS Ensembles show a mixed bunch tonight in general favouring fairly average conditions with rather more unsettled conditions likely eventually. There are a few cold options shown tonight after a universally milder interlude around a week from now.

The Jet Stream continues to show a Northerly aspect to it's latitude for the reliable future tonight.

In Summary there is little notable difference to the overall pattern tonight. High pressure remains in control to the West or SW with brief flirtations with rather more unsettled and interesting weather at times to the north and East. However, until this mid latitude block is removed (and they can notoriously stick around for a long time) then the weather will continue to be all about chasing breaks in the cloud in an otherwise benign and quiet period of weather with patchy frost and fog should those breaks develop overnight.

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Congratulations on posting your first working link 

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Would have liked to have seen ukmo at t168 but we cant a lot of changes at t144 tonight tomorrow will be intresting

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

 

The UKMO has that pacific high further west than the other models, potentially in a better position even than the GFS, especially since something is going on as early as 144h. Still the GFS12z was pretty amazing today in terms of northern blocking, unfortunately probably be a downgrade tommorow. 

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Gfs is good at spotting a new trend thou Beast its knowing what to do with it once it has it thats gfs down fall half gfs ens look like ecm later on in f1

Thanks Martin

No comment on 18z GFS 

One word sums it up 

The models appear to show a prospect of a week or more of anticyclonic gloom and this fills me with dread.

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Excellent 18z, with the heights almost in the same place as the 12z, the surface patterns are slightly different but you would expect it from run to run.  If this trend continues, I will be very confident of a cold spell in the first week of december. 

 

Am I missing something here people? No one seems to be commenting in the MO thread, when I see some very promising weather in the long term. The NAVGEM 144h seems to have that pacific high in a slightly more western position, even more favourible!

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Oh dear our enemy the slug has arrived good job it's FI

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_336_mslp500.png?cb=454

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Guess what the GFS and ECMWF and the UKMO dread even when the set up is Conductive to A Northwest then Northerly- the High then is pushed in and dragged Across through the West N Atlantic by it having to regularly be confronted by NW and North Atlantic Low Pressure NE to SE Arctic and NE Europe- so no point getting excited any better setup should rather be given a chance by developing a proper link Retrogression UK to a Greenland High that if did come to prediction I prefer being forecasted within t72 hrs and the t120 hrs frame- mid range and FI often are too in satisfying for me- A repetitive Sequence From Mid July and Throughout November 2013 is typical what do you expect- I mean this is related to a very Quiet Sun- not many flares nor that many Earth directed CME's we hav seen - typical evidence as seen in October and November.

A usual change to Cold Weather is truly likely after next Week and maybe even the Saturday after it, wait till we get to 1st Week of December- We most likely will see proper winter Weather in much of December- It is certain- a two week period of Windy Wet weather, turns to a week of Colder- with a few frosts- we had this weather in August- November- there were colder phases as well as mild and warm spells, and In November this year the leaves have almost all been removed by the lowering temperatures, strong winds and notable periods of heavy rains.

Expect a mixed bag of weather in December.

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Yup. There are currently no signs of a proper cold spell* any time soon and people are reacting to that.

Before the big cold spells in recent years there have always been signs of what's to come. As I mentioned in a post last week, the number one sign is seeing a high build to the north of the jet. This spell just saw a displaced Azores High and there was nothing for it to link to - over Russia, for example, the high pressure was also a warm one, to the south of the jet.

In 2010, 2005 etc there was a high to the north or NE, supported by upper heights near the Pole. In both cases the high came to the UK as the jet retreated southwards. Until we start seeing signs of a proper cut-off upper high forming in the Arctic (and not on the other side of the pole from here) we're unlikely to see a humdinger of a cold spell.

There are less technical things to look out for as well. When EPS and GEFS are both showing cold clusters it's worth paying attention - they're not at present. When GEFS starts to have 4 or so runs reaching -10C each run, that generates interest. Again, no sign of that bar the odd isolated -10C outlier. When the Dutch ensembles start showing mean highs of zero, it's worth getting excited (down here, anyway). They got down to around 2C for a time several days ago but the means have risen since then. The London EPS is also worth a look - are there any runs showing subzero maxima? Before 2010 there were - but aside from the odd one or two, not this time. And so on - none of the normal signs are showing, hence in my view at least there's very little chance of any proper cold, snowy weather at the moment for most of us.

* - my definition of a proper cold spell includes: -10C 850hPas across parts of the UK, widespread lowland and coastal snow, wiidespread moderate or severe frost and a synoptic pattern which results in temperatures generally 5C or more below average for several days. YMMV!

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Still pessimism this morning ?? Looks better for cold weather longer term this morning. GFS could turn
out very cold

New thread on the way.

M.

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