Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday November 21st 2013.
All models show High pressure in control of the UK weather for the reliable future which is about 7 days at the moment. The High pressure will generally stay just to the West of the UK and although innitially has well broken cloud on it's UK flank will with time fill in with cloud and milder air rounding the Northern periphery of the High and down over the UK next week. As a result the chilly weekend to come with some frost and fog patches will become less chilly next week but fairly uninspiring as a lot of cloud sets in with even a little drizzly rain possible with probable low light levels at times. Night time frosts will become much less widespread as will fog but this may appear on the hilltops at times.
GFS shows little change as we move through the latter stages of the run, firstly pulling the High just to the South of us with a mild Westerly flow before falling pressure brings the chance of something a little more changeable and volatile by the end of the run.
UKMO shows High pressure anchored near Southern ireland with a light and moist Northerly flow over the UK. It is likely to be cloudy for many but with a few holes in places allowing a little sunshine here and there and mist, fog and frost patches overnight but in general conditions will be very average temperature wise.
GEM looks like GFS tonight dropping High pressure down into France later next week with mild and windier Westerly winds bringing the threat of rain to the North but precious little in the South.
NAVGEM holds High pressure to the SW of the UK with a slight NW flow over the UK with cloud laden skies and generally benign weather conditions with temperatures showing little diurnal variation.
ECM shows High pressure out to the West and SW with a slack airflow over the UK biasing Northerly in direction. Some more interesting conditions do threaten the NE, East and SE periphery of the UK at times but become quickly thwarted by returning tropical maritime air rounding the High to the SW.
The GFS Ensembles show a mixed bunch tonight in general favouring fairly average conditions with rather more unsettled conditions likely eventually. There are a few cold options shown tonight after a universally milder interlude around a week from now.
The Jet Stream continues to show a Northerly aspect to it's latitude for the reliable future tonight.
In Summary there is little notable difference to the overall pattern tonight. High pressure remains in control to the West or SW with brief flirtations with rather more unsettled and interesting weather at times to the north and East. However, until this mid latitude block is removed (and they can notoriously stick around for a long time) then the weather will continue to be all about chasing breaks in the cloud in an otherwise benign and quiet period of weather with patchy frost and fog should those breaks develop overnight.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset