Hmmmm

Being fair crap is SWLies and 13c , we aren't there yet

7/8c for the south--- ^^^ Maybe you should look again.

The reason why the GFS keeps flattening the pattern is it cannot resolve split flows & energy seperation.

PTB 20

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-20-1-114.png?18

Shows the energy split nicely ( SW greenland) & inline with the euros - where as the rest of the GFS suite inc the op will just blend those into one big pile of energy & flatten it south...

anyone saying the GFS has done well with this is to put it bluntly- Blind.

S

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

De Bilts.

The A-list output may be wafting around at the moment, but that set from the ECM is the coldest yet long term.
The Northerly may not live up to expectations for some, but further down the line something's up I reckon.

Yes but its in the context of current runs, i class a significant downgrade as crap, if previous runs had been showing blowtorch south westerlys then the 18z would have been a good run, its all about the trend and expectation.

GEFS 18z much better than the 12z though. ECM 12 ens not to shoddy either.

Doesn't look like it - away from Northern Scotland it's become a non event really, let's hope ECM has something of interest later on in the run.

Eh, not really - GFS shows a rain to snow event on the 5th for England and Wales, which has been a recurring theme.

What have we here?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Looks like the cold stays in Europe and we have a scandi high looking to form in FI?

Something which has been shown for days on end with the ECM EPS - and on a good number of GEFS members too over the past couple of days.

Indeed it has been cropping up time and again

Very few GFS members show that scenario this morning, Darren, though yes it has been there in various forms.
There is obviously some signal across the board for a significant height rise over Scandinavia, but as ever with this major synoptic switch, it's more temptation than substance.

In the meantime, the almost inevitable moderation in this weekend's potential for the majority of the UK continues.

It's a little bit more than that - the 15-day EPS output has been pretty bullish about building a high over or close to Scandinavia for several days in a row. It's a pity the full output isn't freely available, as the mood on here would be a bit more upbeat if it was!

GEFS isn't as promising as it was, true, but it still doesn't detract from the potential. Not yet, anyway, although give it a couple of days with GEFS and EPS pulling back and I'll be less optimistic.

That's par for the course. Equally I wouldn't be surprised to see some last-minute upgrades, as that often happens as the models latch on to small-scale features that just aren't possible to resolve until a day or two out.

It's worth mentioning that for much of the time the EPS has been colder than GEFS.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

versus

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

for example. I fully expect that to be the case with the 0z output as well, given the way the EPS control run has been behaving over the past few days.

Pens down now, a new thread on it's way......

I am liking this though, even though GFS has lost the scent this morning!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120200/ECM0-240.GIF?02-12