Remove ads from site

moomin75
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 4:48:42 PM

If what Fergie is saying is true and UKMO are seeing something hinting at a Scandi, they must be seriously dismissing their own charts at the moment, because that 12z UKMO run is simply HORRENDOUS for cold weather....It's a very Euro high and can't see how that can transfer to Scandi anytime this side of 2014.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Arbroath 1320
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 4:48:45 PM



Very interesting update from Ian F on NW:

UKMOview (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter.


Ian K. FergussonFRMetS
Twitter:@fergieweather

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I can take a week of mild gunk next week as a precurser to something seasonal over Christmas UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Only GFS and only one run, but the 12z is not buying anything of the sort after one week of milder gunk - it just gets quite zonal. Absolutely no sign of a Scandi high whatsoever on the 12z...indeed the runs just seem to get milder and milder...with temps well into double figures for the majority of FI.

Originally Posted by: snowy14 



The difference between the 6z and 12z runs is marked and perhaps evidence that the model struggling with the setup. The 12z output is certainly plausible but I'd takke it with a pinch of salt. Lets see what the other 12zs are offering.
GGTTH
moomin75
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 4:51:06 PM

Very interesting update from Ian F on NW: UKMOview (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter. -------------------------- Ian K. FergussonFRMetS Twitter:@fergieweather

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

I can take a week of mild gunk next week as a precurser to something seasonal over Christmas UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Only GFS and only one run, but the 12z is not buying anything of the sort after one week of milder gunk - it just gets quite zonal. Absolutely no sign of a Scandi high whatsoever on the 12z...indeed the runs just seem to get milder and milder...with temps well into double figures for the majority of FI.

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

The difference between the 6z and 12z runs is marked and perhaps evidence that the model struggling with the setup. The 12z output is certainly plausible but I'd takke it with a pinch of salt. Lets see what the other 12zs are offering.

Originally Posted by: snowy14 


Well as mentioned above, the 12z UKMO is horrific for cold weather - and no easy way out of that if it verifies.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 4:56:05 PM


Well as mentioned above, the 12z UKMO is horrific for cold weather - and no easy way out of that if it verifies.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I've never understood why people say any particular set-up is "hard to get out of". Any given pressure pattern can easily change dramatically within a day or two. I don't buy into this "stuck in a rut" fallacy.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 4:58:58 PM



Well as mentioned above, the 12z UKMO is horrific for cold weather - and no easy way out of that if it verifies.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I've never understood why people say any particular set-up is "hard to get out of". Any given pressure pattern can easily change dramatically within a day or two. I don't buy into this "stuck in a rut" fallacy.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Just based on previous years and the track record that once a stubborn Euro high sets in, it tends to stick around for days, sometimes weeks on end.


Perhaps I'm thinking back to the horror winters from 1988-2007?


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:01:32 PM




Very interesting update from Ian F on NW:


 


UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter. 


--------------------------
Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS
Twitter: @fergieweather


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I can take a week of mild gunk next week as a precurser to something seasonal over Christmas


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Only GFS and only one run, but the 12z is not buying anything of the sort after one week of milder gunk - it just gets quite zonal. Absolutely no sign of a Scandi high whatsoever on the 12z...indeed the runs just seem to get milder and milder...with temps well into double figures for the majority of FI.


 


Originally Posted by: snowy14 


Yes we understand ................thank you K


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:02:53 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn1622.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
jondg14
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:17:05 PM

The UKMO 12z looks reasonable to me with an amplified jet and heights rapidly building to our NE. GFS & UKMO are certainly very different over Scandi at 144...


GFS


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3481/gfs-0-144_iiq8.png


UKMO


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8769/UW144-21_lej8.GIF

Arbroath 1320
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:18:10 PM

Very interesting update from Ian F on NW: UKMOview (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter. -------------------------- Ian K. FergussonFRMetS Twitter:@fergieweather

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I can take a week of mild gunk next week as a precurser to something seasonal over Christmas UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

Only GFS and only one run, but the 12z is not buying anything of the sort after one week of milder gunk - it just gets quite zonal. Absolutely no sign of a Scandi high whatsoever on the 12z...indeed the runs just seem to get milder and milder...with temps well into double figures for the majority of FI.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The difference between the 6z and 12z runs is marked and perhaps evidence that the model struggling with the setup. The 12z output is certainly plausible but I'd takke it with a pinch of salt. Lets see what the other 12zs are offering.

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


Well as mentioned above, the 12z UKMO is horrific for cold weather - and no easy way out of that if it verifies.

Originally Posted by: snowy14 



The t144 UKMO chart I agree in isolation does not look good for cold weather. However when you look at the evolution from t120 to t144 the euro high is beginning to ridge northwards. What happens beyond t144 is anyone's guess, but if the ridging continues, WAA could allow a Scandi block to form. GFS 12Z discounts this option as the jet blasts everything away.
GGTTH
Saint Snow
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:22:40 PM

[quote=Rob K;555792]If you want to know where all the cold air is going... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn1622.png[/quote]


 


Makes a change from Greece!


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
JoeShmoe99
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:23:43 PM





Very interesting update from Ian F on NW:


 


UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter. 


--------------------------
Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS
Twitter: @fergieweather


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I can take a week of mild gunk next week as a precurser to something seasonal over Christmas


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Only GFS and only one run, but the 12z is not buying anything of the sort after one week of milder gunk - it just gets quite zonal. Absolutely no sign of a Scandi high whatsoever on the 12z...indeed the runs just seem to get milder and milder...with temps well into double figures for the majority of FI.


 


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


Yes we understand ................thank you K


Originally Posted by: snowy14 


To be fair Moomin is entitled to put his valid opinion that it may well stay mild, the 12z GFS and UKMO are pretty far away from anything cold after Thurs/Fri's cold snap

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:26:00 PM
The UKMO and The GFS12z Models for this Weekend and early next week.

Well it will be less cold after Saturdsy, but the night frosts will be here and this could carry on to Monady the 9th December thanks to a W Europe to UK High P area.

There in the North and NW Atlantic plenty of Active Low Pressure, with wet and windy there.

And Some of the PV Low's head East from N Atlantic to Central Mid E Europe- where they will be Cold with risk of Sleet rain and Snow band and showers.

To the West and North of the latter discussed I see A Scandy High could feature(Develop) and while NW N Atlantic and Iceland plus S SE Greenland PV Low's cross from SW to moving ENE across Far a & N at NE North Atlantic at Western NW Nirwegian Sea, that looks set to be under the Atlantic Low Pressure Zone.

Watching what could happen next week - could be some West and NW UK much needed rain and unsettled windy conditions, which is normal for them.

Higher Pressure to the East and South UK early in Wk, Commencing 9th December.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
eastcoaster
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:27:26 PM
The ensembles at 180hrs are impressively mild, with nearly every member going for high pressure anchored on the continent.
Stormchaser
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:35:42 PM

At day 6 the 12z GFS op, compared to the 12z GEM and UKMO operational runs, is further east with the block over Asia, the trough energy near Siberia, the UK high and the Atlantic troughing.


From there, it has the PV failing to split, and that results in a very uninspiring FI.




GEM is far more interesting, though not as quick as the 12z output yesterday in terms of setting up an easterly, with the risk of the cold pool being lost to the eastern Med.




If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Retron
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:44:01 PM


 


To be fair Moomin is entitled to put his valid opinion that it may well stay mild, the 12z GFS and UKMO are pretty far away from anything cold after Thurs/Fri's cold snap


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


He is indeed entitled. Just as we all are. For example, I could point out that 8C is the mid-December average high down here and the GEFS shows temperatures in the mid-term pretty close to that, not exactly a wash of >10C mildness!


Given that the ECM ensembles are trending away from mildness in the longer term I'd be reluctant to call a mild spell based on current output. (NB, my definition of a mild spell is several consecutive days of 10C or high maxes widely across central and southern England - slightly colder further north).


Leysdown, north Kent
David M Porter
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:48:46 PM

Very interesting update from Ian F on NW: UKMOview (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter. -------------------------- Ian K. FergussonFRMetS Twitter:@fergieweather

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

I can take a week of mild gunk next week as a precurser to something seasonal over Christmas UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Only GFS and only one run, but the 12z is not buying anything of the sort after one week of milder gunk - it just gets quite zonal. Absolutely no sign of a Scandi high whatsoever on the 12z...indeed the runs just seem to get milder and milder...with temps well into double figures for the majority of FI.

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

The difference between the 6z and 12z runs is marked and perhaps evidence that the model struggling with the setup. The 12z output is certainly plausible but I'd takke it with a pinch of salt. Lets see what the other 12zs are offering.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Well as mentioned above, the 12z UKMO is horrific for cold weather - and no easy way out of that if it verifies.

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

The t144 UKMO chart I agree in isolation does not look good for cold weather. However when you look at the evolution from t120 to t144 the euro high is beginning to ridge northwards. What happens beyond t144 is anyone's guess, but if the ridging continues, WAA could allow a Scandi block to form. GFS 12Z discounts this option as the jet blasts everything away.

Originally Posted by: snowy14 


GFS 12z runs in my experience tend to be over-progressive sometimes in that they are too quick to blast away any HP area over or near the UK. I'm not saying that it won't ultimately be proved correct in what it shows, but in some ways I'd be surprised as the atlantic has been fairly quiet of late.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:49:30 PM






Very interesting update from Ian F on NW:


 


UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter. 


--------------------------
Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS
Twitter: @fergieweather


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


I can take a week of mild gunk next week as a precurser to something seasonal over Christmas


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Only GFS and only one run, but the 12z is not buying anything of the sort after one week of milder gunk - it just gets quite zonal. Absolutely no sign of a Scandi high whatsoever on the 12z...indeed the runs just seem to get milder and milder...with temps well into double figures for the majority of FI.


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes we understand ................thank you K


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


To be fair Moomin is entitled to put his valid opinion that it may well stay mild, the 12z GFS and UKMO are pretty far away from anything cold after Thurs/Fri's cold snap


Originally Posted by: snowy14 


Of course he is , and Kieran know's I am kidding


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Zubzero
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 5:50:16 PM

The ensembles at 180hrs are impressively mild, with nearly every member going for high pressure anchored on the continent.

Originally Posted by: eastcoaster 


Yep very mild get the bbq's out 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=259&y=87&ext=1&run=12&runpara=0

doctormog
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 6:42:54 PM

The ensembles at 180hrs are impressively mild, with nearly every member going for high pressure anchored on the continent.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Yep very mild get the bbq's outUserPostedImage
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=259&y=87&ext=1&run=12&runpara=0 

Originally Posted by: eastcoaster 



Yes, I think some are confusing anticyclonic conditions with "mild" t850hPa values and mild surface conditions? With a SWly flow that may well be the case in places I suppose but the outlook does not look especially mild.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png 

Having said that these interpretation ps should not really come as a surprise as people seem to see orange (at either 500hPa or 850hPa) and think mild. It can be the case but is not always so in winter, especially in a continental or very slack air flow.
Essan
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 6:44:41 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png  Having said that these interpretation ps should not really come as a surprise as people seem to see orange (at either 500hPa or 850hPa) and think mild. It can be the case but is not always so in winter, especially in a continental or very slack air flow.




Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gooner
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 6:48:46 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png  Having said that these interpretation ps should not really come as a surprise as people seem to see orange (at either 500hPa or 850hPa) and think mild. It can be the case but is not always so in winter, especially in a continental or very slack air flow.


Well cleared up Michael


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 6:49:47 PM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120312/ECH1-216.GIF?03-0


ECM not that inspiring tonight


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:05:20 PM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120312/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0


No great shakes from ECM tonight


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:08:34 PM

What's the ECM like tonight then Marcus ?


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Rob K
Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:11:43 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Users browsing this topic

Remove ads from site

Ads