Well here we are in the final weeks before Christmas and apart from last weeks storm surge and a few dustings of snow (at low level) in the north of the UK, so far it has been an uneventful winter.

When I got up this morning and looked out the bedroom window I was surprised to see heavy hoar frost on the grass and a crisp winter's morning with frozen car windscreens all around.

That says it all really!! The fact I was "surprised". Winter here in North Kent, has been incredibly bland so far, with no sign of a decent easterly event! 

Cold frosty starts have been limited and wintry precipitation totally absent IMBY!

Other parts of the world haven't been missing out on wintry precipitation however, and the Eastern USA has been particularly hammered! Even Turkey got in on the act last night, with the Champions League Game between Galatasaray and Juventrus being abandoned due to a blizzard!!

Deep down I have a horrible feeling that for cold lovers (myself included) winter 2013/14 is going to be a real dissapointment. 

Cold air just doesn't seem to want to linger around these islands? I feel we have been spoiled through the last few winters and especially the cold spell of December 2010, which despite the rest of that winter being pretty poor (in North Wales at least), was in fact a nailed on 'classic' spell of UK winter weather for almost everybody.

If you look at this excellent history of British winters in the attached link, it is obvious that Britain has always had fluctuating cold and mild periods for our winters. The early to mid seventies were particularly poor for snow as was the late nineties and early noughties!!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess=

However, despite the fluctuations, is climate change having a further impact? Or is is just the fact that our winters fluctuate from cold to mild as our weather in general is so changeable?

It just feels to me that every year the forecast snow events (if we get them) seem to become more and more marginal? Yes snow in Scotland is still fairly reliable (due mainly to elevation), but down here in the south east the famed "beast from the east" appears close to extinction?

Model output for the lead up to Christmas is showing mild and unsettled and last Christmas was also mild! 

 

So is it time to start the moaning thread or too early?

 

Any thoughts?

 

Snowjoke 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LOL - I think you've enough thoughts of your own without me adding too much.
To answer your question there is always room for a moaning thread, and it looks like it might be well populated in the next few weeks, by people moaning about the lack of cold weather to people moaning about people moaning that they like the mild weather.
As Lady Hamilton said on the poop deck of The Victory, you can't beat a good moan.

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Thought we already had one in the Model Output Discussion.........

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Yes, let's have a moan. It needs to be milder!

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OK so its alright for you guys, that live in scotland or the north west or wales or SW england or SE england or the midlands or northern ireland or the channel islands. You either never get any snow and should be used to it, have loads of happy stalling warm fronts knocking on your door, live in lerwick or aberdeen (no further explanation required) or are right next to the coldest uppers in the beasterlies. For us poor folks in the NE that rely almost exlculisvly on the lake effect for our snow, the month with the highest SSTs, lowest solar radiation and therefore highest extreme lake effect potential is GOooooooooooooone. And we have big appetites in the NE for lots of snow, unlike people in the midlands that are fine with a couple of days of tempory slushy deposits. 

Blah 

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znGBU5oODz8

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I Want SNOW Boxing Day...Shall be  lucky if it is even frosty.. Might not be cold enough to light a Yule fire..

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ha ha

Indeed, no moans on my part. With hardly a frost, plenty of sunshine and the outlook of milder weather until perhaps Christmas- thats a winter month nearly done and dusted. Only two more to go and we are well and truly on our way.

Now hows that song go again?????.....

"Jingle bells jingle bells jingle all the way, oh what fun it is to see mild weather on Christmas Day......."

"Well here we are in the final weeks before Christmas and apart from last weeks storm surge and a few dustings of snow (at low level) in the north of the UK, so far it has been an uneventful winter."

"So far". Are you serious? Winter began all of a week and a half ago! What do you expect to have seen  by now? There are still 79 days of winter left, or even longer if you subscribe to the solstice/equinox seasons.

This is akin to having a "summer moaning thread" in the first half of June. Very silly.

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Moaning about a moaning thread? Now that's silly!

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In all honesty Snowjoke - I think what you've described is just normal UK weather fare and sometimes we're reluctant to accept that very often in this part of the world, nothing much of interest happens most of the time. Even so, we've had a significant, damaging Autumn storm on 28th October, a damaging storm across much of the north on 5th December and a devestating surge on the same day across the east coast and parts of north Wales. Also bear in mind that a decent easterly as you call it - the stuff that brings wintry weather is quite rare before years end. The risk increases January to March but even then, in some years it just never happens. The English channel and the North Sea keep our island nations very benign most of the times with the average position of the 0C isotherm come February often just the other side of those bodies of water.
Wasn't it Greg Lake who once sang - "They said there'd be snow at Christmas but instead it just kept on raining"?

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I could do with some rain, to be honest ......   

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I hope we have a big freeze this winter and your pipes burst.

 

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In terms of 'mildies' versus 'coldies', I always view those wanting tons of snow as fun-loving, in touch with their inner child, whilst those who come on here cheering mild weather seem the sort that would delight in snatching a child's favourite toy off them, laughing as the child blubbed.

 

 

PS - wasn't that Jacko character someone who, just a couple of years ago, was a big cheerleader for snow, and always moaning when his part of Nottingham or Leicester or wherever he lives didn't get enough snow? Odd.

 

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I am an avowed coldy, yet no complaints from me so far. The weather I hate most is mild zonal, so the settled weather of the recent past suits me fine.

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I understand that some people dislike being cold and that ice and snow can be a nuisance but I have never understood how anyone with an interest in meteorology can actually like mild winter weather. It is so bloody boring. 

Mild Christmas weather is vile as well. It just isn't festive at all and doesn't feel right.

The only thing I like about the weather so far this winter is that it is showing up the press and the "forecasters" that they quote.

 

I'm generally with you on that one. But I also hate cold zonal. In fact, I just hate rain (unless it's accompanied by a really impressive & damaging storm)

I don't find this benign weather 'boring'. I find drizzle boring.

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I,m still waitng for it to get mild here, plus the weather on 90%+ days of the year are boring weatherwise imby. So im used to it 

What gets me when its mild/zona,ls some develop that great ability to be ablel to know what the weather will be like for weeks/months ahead

No surprises really in what the models are showing. It is, regrettably, the form horse with regard to UK winters. Welcome to the Post- Post- Modern Winter.

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a few points i think need to be made here.

1- The "everyone gets more snow in their backyard than mine" subject.

Typically there will be a few places that get more snow than others everyyear - prone areas. The most snow ive seen in the last 20 years was about 13cms, the rest of the time its usually 2-10cms at best. So i usually head into wales for any sledging - INFACT, i havent sledged anywhere near me since about 1995. Even places near me away from the coast dont usually see heavy snow... it is a very rare event, so i treat it like so - its not expected.

The North east has in recent years faired very well, if not amazingly well with snow. with depths the other year exceeding 2ftin relatively low lying ares. Same too for the south and south east ( i work in London, Newcastle and Liverpool)

If you get a heavy fall, take it as that, and dont expect more of the same. It was a rare event.

2- "are winters getting less snowy?"

I dont think they are - if we count the last say 6-7 years I cant remember a snowier spell in my lifetime (im 30) I also think this is a consequence of the explosion of information brought about by the internet. We constantly have a feeling we are on the edge of something big happening in FI - then get let down when they dont develop further. We are being fed more and more possible scenarios now, than 10 years ago when most peopls expore to weather info was knowing every weather forecast timeslot on the telly... all the ceefax and teletext codes ( i remember how good it felt to be well inside the coloured area saying "Heavy Snow 1*c"" and if you were lucky the odd website (anyone remember the BBC weather message boards? Atmospheric etc?

Weather sites have enabled me to get the next best thing to snowfall - that being seeing other people getting it. I love seeing the pictures, and mapping the progress and severity of the snowfalls (and other weather systems too) as they develop.

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 Top post!

Yes agree a great post and I can go back quite a bit further when weather info was basically only radio and TV forecasts (remember the 00.33 BBCR4 weather report?), Old Moore's Almanac and I'm embarrased to say the premium phonelines with long range outlooks (cost about £5 to be told it's going to be mild until the New Year LOL).

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No moaning! A gorgeous day today, dry, 100% blue sky, frosty and fog banks drifting around the valleys.

 

A good traditional run-up to the winter IMO; rain and wind in October/November, fog and frost in December; the snow can come in January.

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Being age 60 Winters were defintely snowier years ago but not much colder, for instance I don't recall a December as cold as 2010. I've lived in this house since the early 70's and we've had some epic snow events that blew the 30cm+ we got here in January 2010 out the water, especially the late 70's and early-mid 80's when there was some big drifts.

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Nice overall post, Russ - very sensible 

 

On the question of

I'd agree that the past few years have been a big improvement on snow over the period that went from late-80's to around 2009. Not to say we didn't have snow in this period; we did. But it was less frequent to when I was growing up (born 1972, so enjoyed the late 70's/early 80's great winters)

What I will say is that during my lifetime up until being 33, I saw snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day just 3 times (sometime in the 70's, 1981 and around 1996/1997)

My eldest daughter is just 10, and she's seen snow lying on the ground on Xmas Day 3 times already (2004, 2009, 2010). She thinks a white Xmas is the norm!

 

 

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