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bowser
Sunday, December 8, 2013 8:21:46 PM
I'll go yes, but only for N Scotland - change in pattern into Xmas week....
Gandalf The White
Sunday, December 8, 2013 8:21:57 PM

One of the easier questions asked on TWO...


No!



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
Sunday, December 8, 2013 10:52:36 PM

No




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:20:41 PM
I know I got some knowledge about the GFS take on things right now.

Scotland, Ireland Esp. N. Ireland NW and N England and Scotland have a 40 percent chance of a decent spell of Snow.

While South of the Birmingham and Leicestershire Areas have much lesser chance of Snow at 25 percent.

The Midlands also could get a chance: 35 percent chance there.

Birmingham and Leicestershire have 35 percent chance.

South of the M4 has a 15 percent chance of snow based on Today's 18z GFS Model Run.

It appears A cold NNW flow with Active Cold Front and SE Tracking Iceland to UK Low Pressure is currently suggested.

The above forecast is liable to significant changes in Location, Depth and Track of that Low Pressure system, which may lead to High Pressure by Wednesday Xmas day- A Cold and Settled day if the High over Central N Atlantic follows the SE diving Icelandic Low on 23 and 24th December 2013.

This is possible- give the reliable GFS, by the way this right now is Progged at 348 to 384 hours Am I right?.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Matty H
Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:21:23 PM

I know I got some knowledge about the GFS take on things right now.

Scotland, Ireland Esp. N. Ireland NW and N England and Scotland have a 40 percent chance of a decent spell of Snow.

While South of the Birmingham and Leicestershire Areas have much lesser chance of Snow at 25 percent.

The Midlands also could get a chance: 35 percent chance there.

Birmingham and Leicestershire have 35 percent chance.

South of the M4 has a 15 percent chance of snow based on Today's 18z GFS Model Run.

It appears A cold NNW flow with Active Cold Front and SE Tracking Iceland to UK Low Pressure is currently suggested.

The above forecast is liable to significant changes in Location, Depth and Track of that Low Pressure system, which may lead to High Pressure by Wednesday Xmas day- A Cold and Settled day if the High over Central N Atlantic follows the SE diving Icelandic Low on 23 and 24th December 2013.

This is possible- give the reliable GFS, by the way this right now is Progged at 348 to 384 hours Am I right?.

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 



Yes or no?
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:30:45 PM
Matty,

I am not that sure about it but my recent thoughts are based on Imagining the Week 3 from today or next 48 hours from would make us believe The Model GFS it is playing very well the way I see things, So for London based on fact that I am not that sure of it, Though as it may be I am prepared to disagree with Staying in High Confidence if I said yes it will for North and NW UK, even Central Parts- I faithfully say that them may be more likely than London- given what usually happens- It is not yes for London.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Gooner
Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:31:44 PM

I know I got some knowledge about the GFS take on things right now.

Scotland, Ireland Esp. N. Ireland NW and N England and Scotland have a 40 percent chance of a decent spell of Snow.

While South of the Birmingham and Leicestershire Areas have much lesser chance of Snow at 25 percent.

The Midlands also could get a chance: 35 percent chance there.

Birmingham and Leicestershire have 35 percent chance.

South of the M4 has a 15 percent chance of snow based on Today's 18z GFS Model Run.

It appears A cold NNW flow with Active Cold Front and SE Tracking Iceland to UK Low Pressure is currently suggested.

The above forecast is liable to significant changes in Location, Depth and Track of that Low Pressure system, which may lead to High Pressure by Wednesday Xmas day- A Cold and Settled day if the High over Central N Atlantic follows the SE diving Icelandic Low on 23 and 24th December 2013.

This is possible- give the reliable GFS, by the way this right now is Progged at 348 to 384 hours Am I right?.

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120818/gfsnh-0-384.png?18


Might be something wintry from this on the Eve


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


domma
Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:42:31 PM

I think no White Christmas in the UK this year.


_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


Gary

Matty H
Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:58:08 PM

Matty,

I am not that sure about it but my recent thoughts are based on Imagining the Week 3 from today or next 48 hours from would make us believe The Model GFS it is playing very well the way I see things, So for London based on fact that I am not that sure of it, Though as it may be I am prepared to disagree with Staying in High Confidence if I said yes it will for North and NW UK, even Central Parts- I faithfully say that them may be more likely than London- given what usually happens- It is not yes for London.

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 



Based on current output I largely agree with your analysis, although not so confident for northern areas.

I would love to wake up to a foot of snow on Xmas morning as much for the kids as myself.
Russwirral
Monday, December 9, 2013 2:58:37 PM
Based purely on the fact that 70-80% of Xmas's come around a change in weather. ie settled then stormy - I would say there is a fair chance. If we do get a "white Christmas" it wont be from a sustained cold source. Merely on the northern side of Low pressure. Wet snow to low lying areas.

Of course - this depends if we can shift the HP to our south west - which there is tentitive signs for - mid to end of December.

If we dont see snow for low lying areas before or over xmas - I doubt we will have to wait long after.
Snow Hoper
Monday, December 9, 2013 3:24:37 PM

Its a No from me.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
turbotubbs
Monday, December 9, 2013 3:28:58 PM

No from me!


 


(As an aside, I have virtually guaranteed warm weather in SW Wilts for the next two weeks. I do charity collection at this time of, whatever the weather. I bought some very nice warm fleece lined trousers at the weekend, all set for those -5 deg nights...)

Twister
Monday, December 9, 2013 3:39:39 PM

No


 


(...said with low confidence! After all, our Bartlett HP lookalike might decide to head north for his Chrismas break! )


Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
schmee
Monday, December 9, 2013 3:41:40 PM
Probably not. I'll say no and hope I'm wrong.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
nouska
Monday, December 9, 2013 8:20:11 PM
I'm not sure if it is snow falling or snow lying on the ground - maybe latter doubtful in a city environment.

Yes to snow falling - no, if it actually means covering the ground at a specific time of day.
doctormog
Monday, December 9, 2013 9:07:53 PM

I'm not sure if it is snow falling or snow lying on the ground - maybe latter doubtful in a city environment.

Yes to snow falling - no, if it actually means covering the ground at a specific time of day.

Originally Posted by: nouska 



I had the former (falling) in mind when I started the thread. 😄
Essan
Monday, December 9, 2013 9:19:32 PM

The only snow in London this Christmas will be if a media celeb trips and spills their coccaine ....


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Monday, December 9, 2013 11:08:11 PM

I'm going to say Yes.  Probably a Scottish city.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
vince
Monday, December 9, 2013 11:19:14 PM
not a carrots chance , mild ,mild ,mild all the way .....love it ...
cowman
Tuesday, December 10, 2013 6:57:17 PM
No,looking like a mild December
Deep Powder
Tuesday, December 10, 2013 11:33:48 PM
Yes, for sure somewhere City wise will have snow.
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Snowjoke
Wednesday, December 11, 2013 10:21:32 AM

Not a chance here in the south east. In fact the way it is going I would be surprised if we see any wintry precipitation this winter in Kent 


 


Last few winters we have been spoiled!


 


 

doctormog
Wednesday, December 11, 2013 4:39:38 PM
Thanks for the yes or no answers so far.

Not a chance here in the south east. In fact the way it is going I would be surprised if we see any wintry precipitation this winter in Kent 


 


Last few winters we have been spoiled!


 


 

Originally Posted by: Snowjoke 



Just to clarify, is this a yes or no for the original question? 😄
ARTzeman
Friday, December 13, 2013 11:46:03 AM

Things are changing ..Still hopeful for something Boxing Day if not before..






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gooner
Friday, December 13, 2013 1:11:45 PM

Yes


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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