Btw, model unrelated, what year was the thundersnow event where a cold front laid out a few inches across nearly the whole country As it moved south?

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Looking at the ECM again, it is pretty optimistic. I would say the 2nd best one in a while after that run 2 days ago. By 240 things are looking especially good. Really need to keep an eye on this one, a few upgrades could re capture some interest. 

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Hey Deano! Long time no speak!

It was January (26th/27th?) 2004. I was due to fly out to the Caribbean for a cruise, and was petrified I wouldn't make the airport! I also gave up smoking, on the ice, in the car park at a Heathrow hotel on the morning I flew (28th Jan)

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Hi folks. Pressure of work has caught up with me at last. There will be no report from me tonight or all day tomorrow. Should be OK for Fridays runs though. Perhaps something better for 'coldies' will of evolved by then.

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Given the output, maybe someone could just copy and paste today's report... 

Since the ECM has come up with a decent chart. I annotated it below. This is what I am looking out for in future runs? Would people agree that this is at least something to be optimistic about?

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Not sure about that emerging Arctic High, but I do think going up to and beyond Christmas we may find the Azores High flattening off with a spell of increasingly stormy (and cool) zonality possible.

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You're right that the chart is an improvement on many previous runs (which were about as poor as its possible to conceive) in that there are tentative signs of potential, but that's it.   I'd give the run 2/10, which I suppose an improvement on the 0/10 and 1/10 runs we've had for the past few days; so in summary, still very poor, but not utterly atrocious.  It's a case of seeing whether the features you've identified develop over the days ahead or get ironed out as the evolution unfolds.

Andrew

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I can't believe I am saying this but the current set up is actually quite nice, today was sunny and mild and it was great being outside which in December is a real treat.

Alas, it will not last long as things are set to turn more zonal with the dreaded 'zonal Bartlett' taking over for at least a week.

In FI colder zonality becomes a possibility but that is so far out it can be ignored for the time being.

I would settled for today's gentle southerly all winter but such conditions this far north are as rare as hens teeth.

Time to batten down the hatches and await the gales, oh dear........

Andy

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To my untrained eye, no.

How about the chance of more southerly tracking lows
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38415.png 

Whereas down here it was a cold winters day

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Yes, indeed. A chart like this isn't bad in itself, but the problem is that it is isolated at 240h with absolutely no agreement. The only reason I am bothering to post it is to bring some morsel of optimism (plus it is the ECM which has to count for something). When I predicted the most recent cold spell a good two weeks in advance, I was seeing charts like this consistantly at the 300+ hour mark on the GFS; and that was why I was so confident about a cold snap. I have no confidence in this, I am just hoping that it won't dissapear by tommorow like it did two days ago. 

Incidently I plan to keep on annotating decent ECM charts like this, until the bartlett high takes over the world or something consistantly good appears. 

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I think that where we're headed. Question is : will that lead to a temp drop in euro heights with mean troughing in our vicinity or something longer lasting?

Baby steps but only really a straw to clutch at this stage

Yes but I would say, the limiting factor is the range and lack of support for charts like this. The actual chart itself, is really quite good and is definately on the way to producing a cold snap 1+ week down the line. If I start to see stuff like this on the ECM and GFS regularly but for now it isn't happening, the ECM 2 days ago was the only other run that came with anything tangible. And the CFS of course, but blah. 

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The models continue to torture coldies today. You know when things are bad when the best hope is for slush in the far north above 150 meters from Groundhog Day zonal patterns.

Indeed looking very zonal, looks like another depressing damp Xmas day 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

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GFS OP run - showing signs of a Siberian high flirting at the end of FI and perhaps high pressure building over Greenland!?? - Still very uncertain and a long way off!?

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentraleGFSforecast.htm 

Back to the hear and now - we are stuck at 10 - 14c for the rest of the week and weekend! Very unseasonal indeed! 😞 Mind you a year ago it was mild and dry and proper winter never arrived until Mid January!? - So we still have time!

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The models are suggesting that blocking highs develop right the way across from N.E. Asia to the (western) U.S., placing pressure onthe PV and pushing it over to our side i.e. close to our over the UK.

It brings an epic cross polar flow to the U.S., although it's not a smooth affair on ECM and GFS chooses to deflect it out across the Atlantic.

It all starts with a bit of PV energy trracking well south over the Pacific and providing support for a high latitude block there, which then encroaches on the Pole. The critical point for this is now at around 120 hours, so we've got a good chance of seeing the process get started. Whether it will succeed in displacing the PV right over to the UK remains to be seen.

 

It's something to watch. That's it really... at this stage.

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so much talk of blocks and greenland high pressures etc that arent going to happen within the next 3 weeks.

what im seeing is the potential for a succession of shortlived borderline snow events from next week onwards. Cold air being chased by stormy weather, in some cases with a quick return to sub 528dam air 

In heavy spells of rain - we could see a few places getting alot of wet snow. We had a bit of this 2-3 yrs ago on eastern wales dumping alot of snow.

This also seems to be supported by the ECM and in some manner - ensembles.

Eyes peeled for any further developments.

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looks we're set for a nice mild december (and hopefully jan and feb as well) any FL models showing cold incursions will soon dissapear in the coming days as they have done in the past....i work outdoors so the mild dry weather is most welcome!

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If London can get like this for eg from Larnaca with those beauty solid precips and very low uppers SAME time!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Larnaca_ens.png

If this was for London going for -10C and slowly rising to -5C with 2-3 days of solid precips we would be looking at ft of snow levels!

It seem we are stuck in this mild weather but been much better than last few winters that almost mostly cold wet and dry types and it keeping my heating bills much further less this time and far much relaxed too.

If we want cold here I rather see well below -2C maxes with proper snow but if no offering then I take what we having now staying on aveage to milder to waste this winter until Spring come.

 

Well in E London in my part of the World, it was properly foggy for 3/4 of This Wednesday 11th, and by 20:50 and even now looking at the Cars and Roofs they have a Thick Coating Of Ice and Frost on them and the Path's /Roads are cold wet- seemed slippery as well.

I am not sure of Temp Reading but 100% sure there is A Zero or lower temp in my area tonight and the evening!- sure even frost may have also been around this morning.

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Funny how the Daily Express Xmas day "superstorm" keeps popping up from time to time

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121118/gfs-0-324.png?18

Things are starting to look a bit more interesting as we go into the New year

 

 

 

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I seen Evidence of your above Assesment in the Analysis of usual checks on Models etc Analysis of Today's MSLP, and Surface temps via CPC NCEP PSD NOAA current weather Northern Hem Maps, it is Very Very Cold In NE Europe, Central and NE Siberia and Canada N to Central plus the Central and NE and NW USA they are at -35 and -40 deg C and much of the Arctic is also the Same.

I suggest we all think very Carefully About the Low Sunspot Activity, But the CH HSS from the Sun on 15-17th Dec. look very interesting and also the Strat Warming in the Mid Lat North Hem as well as the W Arctic W and NW Canada and East to Central South Asia Warmth / Strat warming- High Pressure is worth a chance to understand and believe in the why the cause are affecting the a Arctic and North Atlantic PV and Troughs- The Stat 10 hpa Temps Very cold at -75 or -80 deg C.

Once upon A Time Winter in USA and Siberia plus the Arctic and Canada is Cold and has been especially in some winters in last 14 years for example - it is worth noting the Severe Snowstorms East and Mid Atlantic USA plus NE USA gets and the Cold Arctic winds coming Straight down. This could be an unsettled very wet very snowy cold winter. The Sun and Earth are behaving that way- even we have a weak Magnetic Field.

And it got breached in 2007 in June in the North Pointing Pole of Earth.

Things can change you must know!.

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