Looks like a very unsettled period of weather coming up leading upto Christmas and possibily beyound.

Sounds like a Daily Express headline!

The 06Z GFS continues the theme of the 00Z with a chunk of the vortex heading in our direction: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

If that was true then the potential is there for a rather wintry spell after Christmas and into the new year.

Eg

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.png

(usual caveats apply!)

Yes the charts are looking rather similar to Xmas 2004 which provided some surprise snowfall for quite a few.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2004/Rrea00120041225.gif

Remember when the ensembles were more or less 100% boring dull HP right out until the solstice? A lot can change in a week!

The latest GFS is showing the Polar Vortex moving SE towards the UK in a number of members.  Interesting for the run up to the New Year.

Possibly good for Northern members with a little evevation, otherwise such synoptics often bring very wet and miserable weather to vast areas of England and Wales. Looking at most model output this morning, I fear we could be in for a very wet spell of weather regardless of mild or cool- and the wind will undoubtedly start to make the headlines.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

JMA Friday (13/12/13)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A look at the month ahead and then beyond with the Korean model.

Have to say, things aren't looking terribly inspiring this winter.

Like i said the other day - i reckon if the LPs move just a little bit further south, we could end up with a few surprise snowfalls.. which in my opinion are the best kind.  All to often we are numb with model watching by the time (if) actually snow arrives to fully enjoy it... When it snows and its not expected - it brings back similar excitement like when i was a child - excellent stuff

Oh dear, not good for coldies! I just hope thos xmas crackers don't contain razor blades or anything sharp for that matter!

Interesting looking 6z GFS - chilly and unsettled in FI, with a general cooling trend to the end on the London ens (interestingly the Aberdeen ens is above average in far FI, other than the OP). The jet sinks a fair way south out in FI - might lead to an unexpected height rise up North if the trend is maintained and the PV energy diminishes or wanders off elsewhere.

Before that mild & unsettled down south with cooler intervals, less mild up North

Suspect the wind will be more of an issue in the near term than anything.

Still, at least I don't have to worry about fog on the cycle in to work for the forseeable

Having watched the GFS ensembles for the last 2 days there is a slight trend for a dip now just after christmas - as shown in the last two runs. The ECM ensembles wont show anything for this at present as 5c in Holland is what you woudl expect from a North Westerly based cool down. Will eb watching to see if it developes further into the post christmas / new year wintry episode.

Martin

Maybe  you not are not worried about fog now,but you risk getting blown off your bike if some of the deep LP's eg efnsembles 1 13 &14 materialize.Very low central pressures of 935mb close to  the uk over festive period.

I think I see a light at the end of the tunnel. Small light, long dark tunnel. The ECM and the GFS are in good agreement to 240h. After that the GFS explodes a deep high over the arctic which propagates towards greenland. Meanwhile in the atlantic we have a southerly tracking jet and over N america the cold on the E seaboard is subsidiing, with some WAA apparant in the NW. Now, these signals, have been sparsely appearing on the ECM recently so I think its fair to say that there is a pattern change on the way. However it is extremely unlikely that this pattern change will come in time for xmas. We are probably looking at start of january for a chance of some northern blocking, but if we are very lucky it may be a few days before that. 

The strat warming thing again? 

I might be completely wrong about this, but modest warming at the highest level in the stratosphere over the UK and other southern latitutes will have absolutely no effect on the PV whatsoever. If anything strat warming at lower latitues, like I have said before will have the opposite effect. Look at the chart from last year where the PV was displaced by SSW over N asia. It got significantly colder in the strat in the UK.

Just saying..... I don't know if you're right, I don't think anyone does.

I don't know if you're correct about modest warmings either. We had a week long cold cold snap at the beginning of Dec 2012 which was associated with very modest strat warming. The snap itself produced a couple of days lying snow down here in the SE, and right now most contributors would chew your arm off for something similar. The later more sustained snap of Jan 2013 was associated with a greater warming.

The one showing up now is quite reasonable  - 20 - 30c at 10hPa.

I only point it out because it might be interesting for some to monitor on GFS. I suppose we'll see if it is associated with anything downstream

This type of modest warming at the 10  hPa level was one of the precursor events for the January 1963 SSW. A screenshot of the page http://i.imgur.com/uFK0skO.png

The full paper.   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281964%29003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2