The GFS and UKMO Outputs Strat Wise, MSLP 500hPa, T850's, Surface Temps and Weather, PV Vorticity, Short and Long Waves, Trofs, Strong Winds, Low P Vs High P Strat wise, and MSLP 500 hPa and Strat Temp Low and High based all these pointers etc where the Cold Pools are most spread and really impacting and where they really are just normal UK impacts, and the Average Temps UK with short and lengthy less cold Waves all are in the Progged 0-240 hr time Frame.
Saying that and what it means for the NE N and NW USA, Siberia West and NW and NE, and Newfoundland Greenland PV and West SW Arctic PV Low P Zonality etc and same for NE and NW Europe and N and West To NW Russia - the -2 to -4 at T850 hPa, and the 0 to 6 at T850's as well in the UK is in charge at times.
Yep Strong winds and heavy rain some deep low's and some cold frosty nights possible and a few ridges high also on offer for UK, and also Some Severe Gales.
The Heavy Snows and very low Record break temps in other areas are there and so is Stratospheric High and also very Low Temps, that over the UK is show not too cold nor too warm! - so there is my analysis for the 12z GFS and UKMO outputs!.
The Siberian and E NW and NE Arctic Sea is also prevailing.
And the SW Arctic PV as well as Norwegian plus Svalbard areas PV Low's and Very Cold air also there, and that with Deep low's and Cold Strat Temps inc Zonal Strength- this also for much of next 2 weeks plus same goes to our NW North and NE plus our East in NE E Europe as well cold and Wintry so any one want Xmas snow then go there rather than the paltry UK Weather Sitauation.
The Pesky Low as we all know to well.
Wanting long cold spells is not on offer if you check all this online..
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Â
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.