Hello folks,

Here's Terry Scholey's Mid Deceber To Mid January Forecast:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Surely some colder weather must be on the way?

I am begining to get the feeling that I might not see much lying snow at all this Winter, if so that would be a shock as I really thought I was into a run of Winters of snow and Ice IMBY of course

Perhaps you are/was but all such run's will eventually come to an end.

That said, we still have February.

Thanks Gavin.

Bloody hell Gav , when I say a run , I meant 4

It's 15th December..... even if the next two weeks models verify, we still have January too!   Enough of the depression!

Thanks Gavin for putting on the forecast..

Yes, we have January to come. However, given our collective experience, the writing is on the wall - January is likely to be zonal and relatively mild.

These types of winters sometimes deliver a sting in their tail, late February/early March, then again, sometimes they don't.

yep but by now the Met extended forecast would be giving us a hint and that is now out to mid January, at the moment there is NO hint

although met office not hinting at any colder weather cfs is showing a marked temp drop around the 2nd week of january. looks fairly believable.at the moment the weather is locked into a stormy, wet spell which will last a few weeks. if you like cold and snow there is plenty of time as in my experience early cold spells nov- dec rarely lead to cold in the new year and beyond. fair bit of truth in the saying "ice in november to bear a duck the rest of the winter will be slush and muck"

That'd be the same CFS which over the past couple of months has shown a really cold December, a mildish December, a cold December, an average December.... throw enough darts at the board and even if you're useless you'll score some points sooner or later.

Meanwhile the ECM-32 control run (which has also done its share of flipflopping over the last month) from last night shows unrelenting zonality all the way out to the middle of January. There are some cooler interludes as the wind goes (briefly) north of west but in the main it's just zonal mush as far as the eye can see. The only trend is for the jet to eventually migrate northwards again into January, bringing drier interludes to the south as the Azores High ridges over France.

yes that is true, but it is one possibility. the weather becomes stuck in a pattern. when that changes and the hints are for around the 7-15th jan it might turn significantly colder or maybe dry and mild.just because it is mild and wet now does not have any bearing which way it will go in a months time.

Darren, that was my reading of the 30 day forecast on the MetO site, i.e. something like a Bartlett pattern.  Not at all what is wanted if we want anything average never mind cold. 

I suppose, like this year, there's always March.....