theweatheroutlook

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NickR
  • NickR
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 December 2013 20:53:06

Right, let's see what pearls you lot have to offer this time...



 


 

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Andy Woodcock
16 December 2013 21:03:30

Lovely GFS 12Z, would bring more snow to my back yard than all last winters Easterlies put together


Just a few more upgrades and we could have another January 1984 classic.


Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Whether Idle
16 December 2013 21:16:49


Lovely GFS 12Z, would bring more snow to my back yard than all last winters Easterlies put together


Just a few more upgrades and we could have another January 1984 classic.


Andy


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


Yes, if I was at altitude in the north I would be feeling slightly optimistic of the snow making potential of cold zonality from Christmas Eve on.  Further south it could be an evaporative cooling temporary slush-fest for the "lucky" few.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Hade Edge Snowman
16 December 2013 22:01:38



Lovely GFS 12Z, would bring more snow to my back yard than all last winters Easterlies put together


Just a few more upgrades and we could have another January 1984 classic.


Andy


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yes, if I was at altitude in the north I would be feeling slightly optimistic of the snow making potential of cold zonality from Christmas Eve on.  Further south it could be an evaporative cooling temporary slush-fest for the "lucky" few.


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


I'm feeling confident.......

Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
aunderwood7
16 December 2013 22:09:01
Looking at the GFS 18z would there be a chance of snow over higher ground in the south? Those westerly winds originate from that bitterly cold air in USA. Feel free to correct me
Maunder Minimum
16 December 2013 22:29:18

Looking at the GFS 18z would there be a chance of snow over higher ground in the south? Those westerly winds originate from that bitterly cold air in USA. Feel free to correct me

Originally Posted by: aunderwood7 


All the bitter cold over the USA does as it leaves the eastern seaboard is to fire up cyclogenesis and the jetstream - by the time the air reaches the UK, it has been heavily modified by the comparatively warm seas of the Atlantic Ocean.

New world order coming.
Gooner
16 December 2013 22:38:02

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121618/gfsnh-0-168.png?18


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121618/gfsnh-0-192.png?18


LP's lining up to run across the UK


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


aunderwood7
16 December 2013 22:42:03

Looking at the GFS 18z would there be a chance of snow over higher ground in the south? Those westerly winds originate from that bitterly cold air in USA. Feel free to correct me

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


All the bitter cold over the USA does as it leaves the eastern seaboard is to fire up cyclogenesis and the jetstream - by the time the air reaches the UK, it has been heavily modified by the comparatively warm seas of the Atlantic Ocean.

Originally Posted by: aunderwood7 



Ahh thanks......straw clutching (becoming an unwanted habit so far this winter)
Russwirral
16 December 2013 22:44:00
Gooner
16 December 2013 22:56:27

I spy with my little eye - i see something like a greenland high

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

">http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131216/18/276/h850t850eu.png


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nsrobins
16 December 2013 23:10:34

The GFS OP once again fires-up a Christmas Day horror show.

The potential for an event involving severe winds, rain, wintry stuff in Scotland and teh odd kitchen sink for good measure is on the cards although it would take a lot to interupt the Xmas edition of Dr Who TBH.


Other than that a general boisterous westerly zonal regime prevails.


Edit: Incidentally GEM also wants to destroy much of mainland UK on Christmas Day.

The gathering support for one or more nasty storm events next week needs careful monitoring IMO

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Hungry Tiger
16 December 2013 23:22:17

Boxing day looks interesting.


Ages since I last saw charts like these.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gooner
16 December 2013 23:32:41


The GFS OP once again fires-up a Christmas Day horror show.

The potential for an event involving severe winds, rain, wintry stuff in Scotland and teh odd kitchen sink for good measure is on the cards although it would take a lot to interupt the Xmas edition of Dr Who TBH.


Other than that a general boisterous westerly zonal regime prevails.


Edit: Incidentally GEM also wants to destroy much of mainland UK on Christmas Day.

The gathering support for one or more nasty storm events next week needs careful monitoring IMO


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013121612/gem-0-240.png?12


Looks woeful

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
16 December 2013 23:39:39

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-216.png?18


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-228.png?18


A deep low from the control for the festive period


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
16 December 2013 23:40:37
Hurricane Rao 😞
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
16 December 2013 23:49:51


I spy with my little eye - i see something like a greenland high

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

">http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131216/18/276/h850t850eu.png

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 




apols


 


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131216/18/252/h850t850eu.png


 


try now?


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
The Beast from the East
17 December 2013 00:30:28


although it would take a lot to interupt the Xmas edition of Dr Who TBH.


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Yes it would be a shame to miss Jenna Louise Coleman


 


It does look as if we are at last seeing some light at the end of the tunnel.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jiries
17 December 2013 00:45:24



The GFS OP once again fires-up a Christmas Day horror show.

The potential for an event involving severe winds, rain, wintry stuff in Scotland and teh odd kitchen sink for good measure is on the cards although it would take a lot to interupt the Xmas edition of Dr Who TBH.


Other than that a general boisterous westerly zonal regime prevails.


Edit: Incidentally GEM also wants to destroy much of mainland UK on Christmas Day.

The gathering support for one or more nasty storm events next week needs careful monitoring IMO


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013121612/gem-0-240.png?12


Looks woeful


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Classic zonal pattern and never ending Lows that always circle around UK insteasd of moving to Russia and China on the other end like N America that they have zonal spells with LP move freely from W-E giving more variety of weather.  That why they get milder spells and severe colds than UK that get just mild and a tad cooler as the LP going in circles doesn't bring extreme mild in advancing LP or extreme cold spells when LP exits bringing N to NE winds.

Gandalf The White
17 December 2013 00:54:30




The GFS OP once again fires-up a Christmas Day horror show.

The potential for an event involving severe winds, rain, wintry stuff in Scotland and teh odd kitchen sink for good measure is on the cards although it would take a lot to interupt the Xmas edition of Dr Who TBH.


Other than that a general boisterous westerly zonal regime prevails.


Edit: Incidentally GEM also wants to destroy much of mainland UK on Christmas Day.

The gathering support for one or more nasty storm events next week needs careful monitoring IMO


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013121612/gem-0-240.png?12


Looks woeful


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Classic zonal pattern and never ending Lows that always circle around UK insteasd of moving to Russia and China on the other end like N America that they have zonal spells with LP move freely from W-E giving more variety of weather.  That why they get milder spells and severe colds than UK that get just mild and a tad cooler as the LP going in circles doesn't bring extreme mild in advancing LP or extreme cold spells when LP exits bringing N to NE winds.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Jiries, I think you'll find that the problem is related to the Gulf Stream and 3,000 miles of ocean upwind of the British Isles.  The west coast of the southern half of British Columbia and the US states of Washingon and Oregon have similar weather to us until you get inland into the high ground.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
17 December 2013 01:03:33

The ECM 12z ensembles are showing a marked and well supported colder spell starting on Boxing Day


London: http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html


Something with a wintry flavour looks a possibilty on 27th and 28th December.


The biggest grouping keep the maxima around 6C and minima around 2C.


The rainfall totals keep moving upwards slowly - the mean is showing almost 70mm over the two weeks, with most of the runs between 50mm and 80mm.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


nsrobins
17 December 2013 07:11:22

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


Apologies for sounding like a stuck record, but copy and paste from the last seven days.
Mo MLB or HLB anywhere to be seen once again.

A stormy spell.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Twister
17 December 2013 07:17:13


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


Apologies for sounding like a stuck record, but copy and paste from the last seven days.
Mo MLB or HLB anywhere to be seen once again.

A stormy spell.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yup, Thursday looking potentially nasty for parts of the north. Beyond that, it's LP after LP... Santa had better tighten his seatbelt!


With the usual caveats, CFS keeps us on the zonal train for at least the next 1074 hours!

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Maunder Minimum
17 December 2013 07:52:10


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


Apologies for sounding like a stuck record, but copy and paste from the last seven days.
Mo MLB or HLB anywhere to be seen once again.

A stormy spell.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


No surprise there however, it is the SNAFU situation - once the UK gets stuck in the zonal rut, there it stays, especially when it is in place during deepest winter months. We have been here so often before - it will most likely be zonal all the way to late February. In these types of winters, we can get a cold snap in February/March - until then, batten down the hatches and tie on your rainhats.

New world order coming.
Andy Woodcock
17 December 2013 07:55:54
My God, on this mornings GFS northern England and Scotland is under purple uppers by Boxing Day, what conditions could we expect at the surface?

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Gooner
17 December 2013 07:56:41



http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


Apologies for sounding like a stuck record, but copy and paste from the last seven days.
Mo MLB or HLB anywhere to be seen once again.

A stormy spell.


Originally Posted by: Twister 


Yup, Thursday looking potentially nasty for parts of the north. Beyond that, it's LP after LP... Santa had better tighten his seatbelt!


With the usual caveats, CFS keeps us on the zonal train for at least the next 1074 hours!


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Apart from this at 516 from the East


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121600/run1/cfsnh-0-516.png?00


 


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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