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nsrobins
18 December 2013 11:56:24


Am I the only one who thinks some of today's warnings are way ott?

I have just seen the Met Office amber warning for 70-90mph gusts yet to me it looks more like 50-60mph gusts widely with 70mph gusts for exposed coastal areas.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


 


Interested to know what it is you see?


Nothing OTT as you say IMO. The Amber for far NW regions is entirely justified on current obs and data, as are the yellows for 60mph gusts across many other areas. There is no Amber warning for Kent.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Snowedin3
18 December 2013 12:02:29
ensemble member number 18 .... Nailed on! ;)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=336&code=18&mode=0&carte=1 
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Maunder Minimum
18 December 2013 12:05:41

ensemble member number 18 .... Nailed on! ;)

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


Please could you post a link - I am at work and don't have the time to hunt it out.


Thanks.

New world order coming.
ManUtdMatt1986
18 December 2013 12:05:53



Am I the only one who thinks some of today's warnings are way ott?

I have just seen the Met Office amber warning for 70-90mph gusts yet to me it looks more like 50-60mph gusts widely with 70mph gusts for exposed coastal areas.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Interested to know what it is you see?


Nothing OTT as you say IMO. The Amber for far NW regions is entirely justified on current obs and data, as are the yellows for 60mph gusts across many other areas. There is no Amber warning for Kent.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 



I was talking about the UK as a whole. None of the models I have seen show wind gusts reaching 70-90mph. 50-60mph gusts widespread and around 70mph+ for exposed coasts.

The GFS, NMM and a subscription only high resolution model are the ones I've been looking at. They all take the strongest winds from the southern and western edge of the low out into the Atlantic, away from the UK.

ManUtdMatt1986
18 December 2013 12:24:51

Having said that, the NMM model is showing gusts of 80-90mph clipping the Western Isles late tonight.

How on earth did I not see that before?! I've run the model through about a dozen times!

Gandalf The White
18 December 2013 12:27:16




Am I the only one who thinks some of today's warnings are way ott?

I have just seen the Met Office amber warning for 70-90mph gusts yet to me it looks more like 50-60mph gusts widely with 70mph gusts for exposed coastal areas.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


 


Interested to know what it is you see?


Nothing OTT as you say IMO. The Amber for far NW regions is entirely justified on current obs and data, as are the yellows for 60mph gusts across many other areas. There is no Amber warning for Kent.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I was talking about the UK as a whole. None of the models I have seen show wind gusts reaching 70-90mph. 50-60mph gusts widespread and around 70mph+ for exposed coasts.

The GFS, NMM and a subscription only high resolution model are the ones I've been looking at. They all take the strongest winds from the southern and western edge of the low out into the Atlantic, away from the UK.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


GFS High Res shows gusts of 75mph in the amber warning areas.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
18 December 2013 12:30:28


Having said that, the NMM model is showing gusts of 80-90mph clipping the Western Isles late tonight.

How on earth did I not see that before?! I've run the model through about a dozen times!


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Information overload?


It's easy to focus on one area and miss something elsewhere. 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ManUtdMatt1986
18 December 2013 12:31:04





Am I the only one who thinks some of today's warnings are way ott?

I have just seen the Met Office amber warning for 70-90mph gusts yet to me it looks more like 50-60mph gusts widely with 70mph gusts for exposed coastal areas.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Interested to know what it is you see?


Nothing OTT as you say IMO. The Amber for far NW regions is entirely justified on current obs and data, as are the yellows for 60mph gusts across many other areas. There is no Amber warning for Kent.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 



I was talking about the UK as a whole. None of the models I have seen show wind gusts reaching 70-90mph. 50-60mph gusts widespread and around 70mph+ for exposed coasts.

The GFS, NMM and a subscription only high resolution model are the ones I've been looking at. They all take the strongest winds from the southern and western edge of the low out into the Atlantic, away from the UK.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


GFS High Res shows gusts of 75mph in the amber warning areas.


 


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 



I've just noticed those wind clipping the Western Isles on the NMM model (I believe the NMM is a high resolution version of the GFS?). I don't know how missed that as I've run the model through about a dozen times!

ManUtdMatt1986
18 December 2013 12:32:05



Having said that, the NMM model is showing gusts of 80-90mph clipping the Western Isles late tonight.

How on earth did I not see that before?! I've run the model through about a dozen times!


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Information overload?


It's easy to focus on one area and miss something elsewhere. 


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


I was concentrating specifically on those areas. My eyesight leaves me feeling

Stormchaser
18 December 2013 12:41:58

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2013/12/18/basis06/euro/prty/13121900_1806.gif


This new Euro4 model (4km grid across Europe) shows the NW being battered by a 950mb storm in 18 hours time.


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis06/euro/prty/13121900_1806.gif


NAE isn't quite as deep with the storm but there's not much in it. Looks like a noteworthy blast up there.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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Keep Calm and Forecast On
Retron
18 December 2013 12:43:10
ECM control finally shows something of interest - a whopping Scandinavian High by 360.
Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
18 December 2013 12:46:17

ECM control finally shows something of interest - a whopping Scandinavian High by 360.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Along with Pert #18? The first faint flickers of hope on the horizon?

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Russwirral
18 December 2013 13:14:21
yup Ensembles now showing much colder scatter in FI.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20131218/06/t2mCheshire.png 

could be a major pattern change on the horizon post the stormy one we are on the cusp of.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
18 December 2013 13:18:01
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2013/12/18/basis06/ukuk/prty/13121918_1806.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
18 December 2013 13:21:03


ECM control finally shows something of interest - a whopping Scandinavian High by 360.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Along with Pert #18? The first faint flickers of hope on the horizon?


Originally Posted by: Retron 


No - that's going to collapse south because the jetstream is coming over the top of the high in mid-Atlantic.  You can see it starting to happen by T+384


All bound to happen that way of course........ not.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
18 December 2013 13:25:10

ECM control finally shows something of interest - a whopping Scandinavian High by 360.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Good update Dazza


Need to knock a 0 off the timescale before the interest picks up

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
18 December 2013 13:26:26

New Euro 4km model out on WeatherOnline, for those that missed it. Some transient wintry interest on offer in southern/Midland parts tomorrow: Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2013/12/18/basis06/ukuk/prty/13121918_1806.gif


Even I might get to see a flake or 2

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


picturesareme
18 December 2013 13:42:13

ECM control finally shows something of interest - a whopping Scandinavian High by 360.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Along with Pert #18? The first faint flickers of hope on the horizon?

Originally Posted by: Retron 



First? There where hints yesterday, just i fear many had taken a page from steptoes book... even those who are normally quite rational about these things. 🙂
nsrobins
18 December 2013 13:58:33

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim


There do seem to be some much colder options right at the end on the updated De Bilt set.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
kennedy
18 December 2013 14:52:31

ECM control finally shows something of interest - a whopping Scandinavian High by 360.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


how do you see 360 ecm,i thought it only goes to t+240

Liam79
18 December 2013 15:42:55

Hi Kennedy if you look at the De Bilt ensembles the control run and ensembles go out much further than the Operational which stops at 240hrs :)

The Beast from the East
18 December 2013 16:20:41

quite a different run, no storm on the big day it would seem

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Gandalf The White
18 December 2013 16:34:56


Hi Kennedy if you look at the De Bilt ensembles the control run and ensembles go out much further than the Operational which stops at 240hrs :)


Originally Posted by: Liam79 


Just to clarify, the control run is part of the ensemble run, which goes out 15 days.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
18 December 2013 16:39:24


quite a different run, no storm on the big day it would seem


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Referring to the 12Z GFS? It's all about the timing and position of the secondary low. On this run it doesn't really get going so the winds are much less extreme:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png


 


Then after Christmas there's almost a bit of Greenland blocking trying to develop but the cold air spilling out of America is always going to put it under pressure... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.png

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
18 December 2013 16:45:18
fascinating end to the GFS 12z there.

I think we are facing another of those scenarios where the models have a good grasp on how its all going to end up , but still rather confused on how its going to get there.

Think that’s more down to the extremely complex LP (and all its children) developing to our west over the next few days. Each detail within the run is different by quite a margin but at the same time, the main pressure elements remain quite consistently placed.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
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