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Gandalf The White
20 December 2013 17:04:59


temps up to -12C by the end of the run and edging closer towards the pole, so by all accounts a warming event of sorts COULD begin in the next couple of weeks. Certainly a straw worth clutching to at the very least!


Originally Posted by: ITSY 


Yes, of some small comfort as I am trying to repair battered fence panels and sagging fence posts....


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Polar Low
20 December 2013 17:06:28
Polar Low
20 December 2013 17:18:19
Rob K
20 December 2013 17:20:11


950 gm


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=90&mode=0&carte=0


really


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Scarily, I think there must be some isobars missing from both that and the NAVGEM charts, jusdging by the large area inside the 950mb isobar! The pressure pattern wouldn't have a tight gradient around a large "flat" area like that in reality so I think it might be a rendering problem in that the isobars below 950mb just aren't drawn! Extrapolating that looks more like a 925mb low!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
20 December 2013 17:21:05

Never dont look gfs been on the cider


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=90&mode=0&carte=0


 Give that run 16 to Daily Express one off the greatest stormy run ive ever seen


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=168&mode=0&carte=0


 


 

nouska
20 December 2013 17:31:20
The low is down to 927mb on this run so a bit deeper - the +105 hour time frame looks horrendous - 75 kt gusts funnelling through the central belt of Scotland.

http://i.imgur.com/ZDvRuxG.gif 

http://i.imgur.com/QpVuRl7.gif 

Some Christmas menu flexibility required in case of power outages.
Twister
20 December 2013 17:34:48


Never dont look gfs been on the cider


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=90&mode=0&carte=0


 Give that run 16 to Daily Express one off the greatest stormy run ive ever seen


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=168&mode=0&carte=0


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


A 905 low on that run - incredible!

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Polar Low
20 December 2013 17:38:26

Think thats record breaking for uk????


 


 




Never dont look gfs been on the cider


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=90&mode=0&carte=0


 Give that run 16 to Daily Express one off the greatest stormy run ive ever seen


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=168&mode=0&carte=0


 


 


Originally Posted by: Twister 


A 905 low on that run - incredible!


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

glenogle
20 December 2013 17:39:49



Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I just hope the weather doesn't prove to be too much of a problem on Tuesday (Xmas Eve) up here; I'm planning a trip through to Edinburgh by train on that day and don't really want the trains to be disrupted!


Originally Posted by: ballogie 

 


Is this route prone to weather related disruption ? Being Scotrail's busiest and most profitable route, I'd imagine your chance of success remains much more than 50:50



Two weeks ago the entire rail network was shut down up here for a few hours after some parts of Scotland were battered by severe gales/storm force winds. We're not especially prone to problems caused by the weather but that said it has caused some difficulties in the past from time to time, including extreme heat causing damage to the track as happened back in July!



 


Your down here, he is up there.  I think he was correct in questioning your worries.  Central Belt rarely suffers, although it always makes better news when it does.


Current chart for Xmas Eve looks nice http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_96_mslp500.png?cb=451 

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Polar Low
20 December 2013 17:39:58

looks a record low run 16


http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/48934-the-lowest-pressure-reading-recorded-in-the-uk/


 And we beat them to it no mention on other side


 

Essan
20 December 2013 17:42:33

I think this is as far as the GME goes out and at this stage the storm is still deepening

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme721.gif

Hopefully, given the time scale some of the models are going OTT, if not it is a rather worrying outlook for a time when many people will be travelling.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Indeed.   It's not looking good at all

Though very interesting and exciting from a meteorological perspective. 

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Rob K
20 December 2013 17:46:06


looks a record low run 16


http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/48934-the-lowest-pressure-reading-recorded-in-the-uk/


 And we beat them to it no mention on other side


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Not sure that even that extreme chart has a pressure below 925mb over the UK itself. Hard to see with all the isobars blocking the view but  looks like it stays >930mb even in the western Isles.


 


Would be a record for the Atlantic though, surely. I've never seen a 905mb isobar before!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
20 December 2013 17:49:28

 thought it was my cider


 




looks a record low run 16


http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/48934-the-lowest-pressure-reading-recorded-in-the-uk/


 And we beat them to it no mention on other side


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not sure that even that extreme chart has a pressure below 925mb over the UK itself. Hard to see with all the isobars blocking the view but  looks like >930mb even in the western Isles.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Twister
20 December 2013 17:50:04


looks a record low run 16


http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/48934-the-lowest-pressure-reading-recorded-in-the-uk/


 And we beat them to it no mention on other side


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Thanks for the link. 


Still a way to go before we know how deep it will turn out to be, and run 16 seems a little on the extreme side, to put it lightly!


Also, bear in mind that the lowest pressure might not reside over UK shores either, but to the north.


 

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Andy Woodcock
20 December 2013 17:55:57

Terrible GFS run, we even lose the cool zonality!


Just when you thought things are looking better pressure rises to the south, although to be fair the ECM 30 dayer predicted this very scenario.


Oh dear.


Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Gandalf The White
20 December 2013 17:58:46

The low is down to 927mb on this run so a bit deeper - the +105 hour time frame looks horrendous - 75 kt gusts funnelling through the central belt of Scotland.

http://i.imgur.com/ZDvRuxG.gif

http://i.imgur.com/QpVuRl7.gif

Some Christmas menu flexibility required in case of power outages.

Originally Posted by: nouska 


Indeed, and that evolution is well supported by the ensemble run.  The mean chart gives a low of sub-935mb at noon on Xmas Eve:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-96.png?12


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Polar Low
20 December 2013 18:01:30

Japs went into meltdown over it a few hours before could not handle it.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=84&mode=1

Gandalf The White
20 December 2013 18:08:13

Here's the pressure chart from the GFS 12z ensemble run for the northern tip of the Isle of Lewis:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2013122012/graphe4_1000___-6.509433962264151_58.340080971659916_.gif


The expression 'off the scale' was never more appropriate!



 


Edit: and in response to Twister's comment at the top of the page, here is the plot for the Faroe Islands, which is close to where the centre of the LP sits on Xmas Eve


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2013122012/graphe4_1000___-6.509433962264151_58.340080971659916_.gif


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
20 December 2013 18:15:33

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-324.png?12


The control is still keen on halting the Atlantic train


P14 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-14-1-324.png?12


P 6 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-6-1-288.png?12


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
20 December 2013 18:17:54
roger63
20 December 2013 18:49:28


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-324.png?12


The control is still keen on halting the Atlantic train


P14 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-14-1-324.png?12


P 6 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-6-1-288.png?12


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Looking at the GEFS ensembles from the 12h run, by 360h there is 50;50 split between continuing zonal flow and anticyclonic flow (a mixture of Scanadinavian ,Uk ,and Atlantic HP)


In such a situation would hope for an easterly to get going but experience suggests zonal usually wins the battle!

Gooner
20 December 2013 19:18:33



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-324.png?12


The control is still keen on halting the Atlantic train


P14 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-14-1-324.png?12


P 6 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-6-1-288.png?12


 


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Looking at the GEFS ensembles from the 12h run, by 360h there is 50;50 split between continuing zonal flow and anticyclonic flow (a mixture of Scanadinavian ,Uk ,and Atlantic HP)


In such a situation would hope for an easterly to get going but experience suggests zonal usually wins the battle!


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I'm just trying to look on the bright side

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
20 December 2013 19:20:29

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif?20-12


This doesn't look too good

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
20 December 2013 19:33:15

ECM shows the same two deep LP systems


Monday midday: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122012/ECM1-72.GIF?20-0


Friday midday: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122012/ECM1-168.GIF?20-0


 


Meanwhile, very cold air aloft for Xmas Day:


500hPa/SLP: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122012/ECF1-120.GIF?20-0


850hPa: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122012/ECF0-120.GIF?20-0


That's about 528dam air for much of England, so a chance of something wintry coming out of the trough as it moves through during the morning, especially with elevation.


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chiltern Blizzard
20 December 2013 20:03:29

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif?20-12


This doesn't look too good

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Ouch, that is bad; the UK is the bullseye.. Now its on the fax chart I'm really beginning to believe we are about to get an historic storm that will persist in the annals. Much as I'm fascinated and intrigued by this storm that's brewing, its intensity and its timing give means concern far outweighs any pleasure I have looking at this.

Andrew

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
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