theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Sevendust
20 December 2013 13:13:22

One thing I have learnt from moving to Hampshire from Essex a few years ago is just how wet it gets down here in zonal winter set ups. In early winter especially we get a lot of rain, probably due to the increased energy from the Channel and the rainfall expected will be a concern for some generally across the south.


Winchester has piled up over 60mm in the last week and will probably be through 100mm for the fortnight. That tends to get overlooked in the natural concern for damaging winds but is worth remembering.


Endlessly zonal at the moment and the strong jet actually helps in bringing some wintriness at times as it limits the time spent over the warm Atlantic after the air leaves the Canadian Arctic 

Gooner
20 December 2013 13:15:20
Stormchaser
20 December 2013 14:02:25

Its beggining to look a lot like


Stormageddon


 



That system later next week is now being developed more rapidly by all the models except ECM, which was there already - kudos to it if that turns out to be the right solution.


What that leads to is a second large and deep system possibly bottoming out sub-940mb, competing with the Christmas storm for the title of UK's Strongest Storm 2013.


It will have some way to go though, as the storm 24th-26th December is modelled to bottom out at 932mb according to ECM, nearer 936mb according to GFS, with a tight pressure gradient producing wind gusts of 70mph widely, with some 80-90mph gusts certainly possible especially to the NW... like a re-hash of last Wednesday night, but probably more prolonged.


 


Down here in the south, the system later next week needs watching in case it is modelled to develop a bit more slowly again - this results in a track further SE, bringing the strongest winds that way and with the risk of the system still rapidly developing as it arrives, increasing the risk of 'freak gusts' or a sting jet situation.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gooner
20 December 2013 15:17:00


Its beggining to look a lot like


Stormageddon


 



That system later next week is now being developed more rapidly by all the models except ECM, which was there already - kudos to it if that turns out to be the right solution.


What that leads to is a second large and deep system possibly bottoming out sub-940mb, competing with the Christmas storm for the title of UK's Strongest Storm 2013.


It will have some way to go though, as the storm 24th-26th December is modelled to bottom out at 932mb according to ECM, nearer 936mb according to GFS, with a tight pressure gradient producing wind gusts of 70mph widely, with some 80-90mph gusts certainly possible especially to the NW... like a re-hash of last Wednesday night, but probably more prolonged.


 


Down here in the south, the system later next week needs watching in case it is modelled to develop a bit more slowly again - this results in a track further SE, bringing the strongest winds that way and with the risk of the system still rapidly developing as it arrives, increasing the risk of 'freak gusts' or a sting jet situation.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122006/gfsnh-0-180.png?6


This doesn't look too clever does it

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
20 December 2013 15:31:11


Its beggining to look a lot like


Stormageddon


 



That system later next week is now being developed more rapidly by all the models except ECM, which was there already - kudos to it if that turns out to be the right solution.


What that leads to is a second large and deep system possibly bottoming out sub-940mb, competing with the Christmas storm for the title of UK's Strongest Storm 2013.


It will have some way to go though, as the storm 24th-26th December is modelled to bottom out at 932mb according to ECM, nearer 936mb according to GFS, with a tight pressure gradient producing wind gusts of 70mph widely, with some 80-90mph gusts certainly possible especially to the NW... like a re-hash of last Wednesday night, but probably more prolonged.


 


Down here in the south, the system later next week needs watching in case it is modelled to develop a bit more slowly again - this results in a track further SE, bringing the strongest winds that way and with the risk of the system still rapidly developing as it arrives, increasing the risk of 'freak gusts' or a sting jet situation.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122006/gfsnh-0-180.png?6


This doesn't look too clever does it

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 



Amazing chart, but I don't believe it. Positive AO with 1040 mb over the Pole and the PV centred just north of Ireland.
New world order coming.
ITSY
20 December 2013 15:55:43


  goodness me that would be close if with evap cooling.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-2m/120h.htm


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=taup&HH=120&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


 


 


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rart&HH=120&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Some Central/Eastern areas would certainly be at risk of (at least a temporary) white christmas if that actually happened. Certainly one to watch!

EDIT: that secondary low early on Christmas day isn't as organised and indeed is further SE than before, but it still shows up on the precip chart as snow - as it did on the above/previous run. Interesting possibilities, albeit just possibilities at this stage, for some. 

Gandalf The White
20 December 2013 16:02:17
Gandalf The White
20 December 2013 16:05:06

The GFS 12z now has the Xmas Eve storm down below 930mb at midday


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-0-102.png?12


The winds approaching the west of Scotland look nasty


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/96-289UK.GIF?20-12


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


JoeShmoe99
20 December 2013 16:06:20

Chaos for travellers in NI and Scotland Xmas eve


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png


 


 

Arbroath 1320
20 December 2013 16:09:13


The GFS 12z now has the Xmas Eve storm down below 930mb at midday


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-0-102.png?12


The winds approaching the west of Scotland look nasty


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/96-289UK.GIF?20-12


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, if the 102 chart verifies that is seriously bad news for Scotland and N England. Worrying.

GGTTH
Polar Low
20 December 2013 16:09:23
JoeShmoe99
20 December 2013 16:12:51



The GFS 12z now has the Xmas Eve storm down below 930mb at midday


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-0-102.png?12


The winds approaching the west of Scotland look nasty


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/96-289UK.GIF?20-12


 


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


Yes, if the 102 chart verifies that is seriously bad news for Scotland and N England. Worrying.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


If that verified a fair few folks would have no electricity xmas day, that looks like a sub 930mb low

Rob K
20 December 2013 16:14:48
That secondary low on Saturday has all but vanished on the 12Z GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn301.png 

Also not much showing on the NAE.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
JACKO4EVER
20 December 2013 16:16:16
Some very serious and worrying charts posted in the last few minutes folks. I expect some MetO warnings coming soon. The fax charts will be interesting later. Very very stormy period in the offing
Rob K
20 December 2013 16:17:51
So a "bomb" is defined as a pressure fall of >24mb in 24 hours. What is a pressure fall of >30mb in 12 hours then!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png  is quite scary!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
20 December 2013 16:18:50

Might be a bit over the top gfs ukmo at that time


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021


 



Chaos for travellers in NI and Scotland Xmas eve


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png


 


 


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 

JACKO4EVER
20 December 2013 16:19:02

That secondary low on Saturday has all but vanished on the 12Z GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn301.png 

Also not much showing on the NAE.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The weather version of the Hokey Cokey!
I have noticed this before- the models are struggling with late development of this feature.
JACKO4EVER
20 December 2013 16:20:13

So a "bomb" is defined as a pressure fall of >24mb in 24 hours. What is a pressure fall of >30mb in 12 hours then!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png  is quite scary!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Nuke!
doctormog
20 December 2013 16:34:52
I think this is as far as the GME goes out and at this stage the storm is still deepening

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme721.gif 

Hopefully, given the time scale some of the models are going OTT, if not it is a rather worrying outlook for a time when many people will be travelling.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
JACKO4EVER
20 December 2013 16:49:05

I think this is as far as the GME goes out and at this stage the storm is still deepening

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme721.gif 

Hopefully, given the time scale some of the models are going OTT, if not it is a rather worrying outlook for a time when many people will be travelling.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Doc, it's not that far away in terms of hours. I think the models are unfortunately firming up on this one. Hopefully it will downgrade, though it could hardly get much worse! This Christmas and New Year period could well go down as being one of the stormiest on record
Gandalf The White
20 December 2013 16:53:51

GFS continues to show quite marked warming at the 10hPa level on the Asian side of the Pole.


By the end of the run there's a very large area of warmer air over northern Siberia, not far from the Pole


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


 


The 500hPa/SLP chart shows a split vortex throughout the low res part, with high pressure at the Pole:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-0-240.png?12


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-0-384.png?12


 


There's still a way to go when we've got that chunk of the vortex stuck over Greenland, but it's a start.


 


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Polar Low
20 December 2013 16:55:56

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0&carte=0


 


Nav 950 but intresting how it plays that shortwave to the south within its self very serious rain from that I would have thought for the south.

ITSY
20 December 2013 16:57:43


GFS continues to show quite marked warming at the 10hPa level on the Asian side of the Pole.


By the end of the run there's a very large area of warmer air over northern Siberia, not far from the Pole


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


 


The 500hPa/SLP chart shows a split vortex throughout the low res part, with high pressure at the Pole:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-0-240.png?12


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122012/gfsnh-0-384.png?12


 


There's still a way to go when we've got that chunk of the vortex stuck over Greenland, but it's a start.


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Absolutely.


//www.meteociel...mode=10&carte=1


 


 


temps up to -12C by the end of the run and edging closer towards the pole, so by all accounts a warming event of sorts COULD begin in the next couple of weeks. Certainly a straw worth clutching to at the very least!

Users browsing this topic

Remove ads from site

Ads