ECM and MOGREPS ensembles give strong support for the low crossing the UK late on Christmas not quite cold enough for low -level snow even on the Northern side, above 300 m I think
Originally Posted by: Polar Low
Yes, I agree. To get snow at lower levels, some stagnation would be required. For that we would need very low heights but no circulation on the surface. I would say parts of the south midlands and SW are most at risk of seeing localised snow, but I recon its still less than a 1/3 probability at best.
EDIT: The GEM solution is most conductive to transient snow in wales and the SW.
Originally Posted by: Quantum