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NickR
22 December 2013 11:10:57


Have just come across this fantastic real time global wind map.


See -


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-21.50,46.68,302


You can move anywhere round the globe, you can zoom in and no doubt we can all see how the storms in the next few days develop and affect our region.


For me to make it work, I had to reload everytime after I had got the globe location I wanted.


Edit: Trying the link again, I now don't need to reload.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


IT's great, but it's not real-time. It simply takes the models' forecasts and uses that.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
polarwind
22 December 2013 11:14:40



Have just come across this fantastic real time global wind map.


See -


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-21.50,46.68,302


You can move anywhere round the globe, you can zoom in and no doubt we can all see how the storms in the next few days develop and affect our region.


For me to make it work, I had to reload everytime after I had got the globe location I wanted.


Edit: Trying the link again, I now don't need to reload.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


IT's great, but it's not real-time. It simply takes the models' forecasts and uses that.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Fair enough - I took the link and comment as read.


 


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
nouska
22 December 2013 11:14:56


The GFS output is now very consistent run to run for tomorrow's storm so the chances of a downgrade seem to be diminishing.


The 6z has the low centre at 927mb 09z on Tuesday
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/51-515UK.GIF?22-6


Wind gusts of up to 140kph (87mph) in the eastern English Channel and up the Dover Strait just after midnight on Tuesday morning
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/42-289UK.GIF?22-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/45-289UK.GIF?22-6


Similar speeds for the NW of Ireland and the west coast of Scotland a little later in the morning
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/48-289UK.GIF?22-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/51-289UK.GIF?22-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/54-289UK.GIF?22-6


The NAE seems unable to cope with pressure below 950mb. But just look at that huge area on the chart where the pressure is below 950mb
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/22/basis06/ukuk/ismh/13122400_2_2206.gif


This chart from the NMM model for 0z Tuesday is quite worrying. Wind gusts in the SE even inland quite widely in the 120 - 130kph bracket (75-80mph).
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122200/nmm-11-48-1.png?22-06


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


It is a wee bit easier to see the UK outline for NMM on Meteo 60


http://www.meteo60.fr/modeles-nmm-europe.php?parametre=precipitations&echeance=06h


....and the hourly close-up for south coast.


http://www.meteo60.fr/modeles-nmm-france.php?parametre=precipitations&echeance=04h

belfastbrum
22 December 2013 11:23:18


I'm a bit puzzled that the METO warning is yellow alert for Monday and Tuesday ,mentions gusts 80-90 mph ,but doesn't mention  anything about damage.?That doesnt seem to sit easily with some of the comments on this thread.


My own take is that the more southerly tracking(at present) LP on the 27th looks a bigger threat.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


 


I'm amazed the MetO still only have yellow alerts out. After all the hooplah over the St Jude storm, you'd think they would increase warnings for western/central scotland at least with a sub 930mb storm approaching,

polarwind
22 December 2013 11:28:53




Have just come across this fantastic real time global wind map.


See -


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-21.50,46.68,302


You can move anywhere round the globe, you can zoom in and no doubt we can all see how the storms in the next few days develop and affect our region.


For me to make it work, I had to reload everytime after I had got the globe location I wanted.


Edit: Trying the link again, I now don't need to reload.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


IT's great, but it's not real-time. It simply takes the models' forecasts and uses that.


Originally Posted by: NickR 

Fair enough - I took the link and comment as read.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Apparently it's a 'near time' forecast, updated every three hours.


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
stophe
22 December 2013 11:33:05
NickR
22 December 2013 11:42:54





Have just come across this fantastic real time global wind map.


See -


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-21.50,46.68,302


You can move anywhere round the globe, you can zoom in and no doubt we can all see how the storms in the next few days develop and affect our region.


For me to make it work, I had to reload everytime after I had got the globe location I wanted.


Edit: Trying the link again, I now don't need to reload.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


IT's great, but it's not real-time. It simply takes the models' forecasts and uses that.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Fair enough - I took the link and comment as read.


Originally Posted by: NickR 

Apparently it's a 'near time' forecast, updated every three hours.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


Yes, with the models, not actual recorded windspeeds:


http://earth.nullschool.net/about.html


Mesmerising!


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
picturesareme
22 December 2013 11:51:32
Metoffice just updated weather warnings for the south... The wind warnings have gone and just heavy rain warnings remain.
glenogle
22 December 2013 11:54:34

Metoffice just updated weather warnings for the south... The wind warnings have gone and just heavy rain warnings remain.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Generally means they are in the middle of updating/upgrading.  Expect ambers galore shortly. 


Maybe even a few yellows for snow up in Scotland.


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
glenogle
22 December 2013 11:56:58

The question is.... will they put out a red, due to the mass movement of people expected on Christmas Eve.


The joy of a matrix means that a different colour might be warranted for the same weather at different times of the season


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/warnings


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
picturesareme
22 December 2013 11:58:34

Metoffice just updated weather warnings for the south... The wind warnings have gone and just heavy rain warnings remain.

Originally Posted by: glenogle 


Generally means they are in the middle of updating/upgrading.  Expect ambers galore shortly. 


Maybe even a few yellows for snow up in Scotland.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Ah thanks... I thought it odd a little. I will check back a little later then 🙂
nsrobins
22 December 2013 12:04:26


Metoffice just updated weather warnings for the south... The wind warnings have gone and just heavy rain warnings remain.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Generally means they are in the middle of updating/upgrading.  Expect ambers galore shortly. 


Maybe even a few yellows for snow up in Scotland.


Originally Posted by: glenogle 



Ah thanks... I thought it odd a little. I will check back a little later then :)

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Yes this is normal for updating periods. The wind warnings are being posted shortly - Ambers probable.
Reds will not appear until less than 24hrs out but given the potential scenarios and the way the matrix system works, reds may well be issued at some point tomorrow.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Cumbrian Snowman
22 December 2013 12:14:11

I was just about to post thyat the warnings had gone - thanks for the suggestion on what they may be doing.


glenogle
22 December 2013 12:17:43



Metoffice just updated weather warnings for the south... The wind warnings have gone and just heavy rain warnings remain.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Generally means they are in the middle of updating/upgrading.  Expect ambers galore shortly. 


Maybe even a few yellows for snow up in Scotland.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Ah thanks... I thought it odd a little. I will check back a little later then :)

Originally Posted by: glenogle 


Yes this is normal for updating periods. The wind warnings are being posted shortly - Ambers probable.
Reds will not appear until less than 24hrs out but given the potential scenarios and the way the matrix system works, reds may well be issued at some point tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Having now read the warning thing, i can see why there have not been reds for previous events.  The only real difference between amber and red is "widespread"  so really depends on how they define widespread, although even by anyones definition, surely uk wide is widespread 


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
22 December 2013 12:19:14

Hmmm, well still a yellow wind warning now for Scotland / Northern Ireland


This 'event' now only around 24 hours away

glenogle
22 December 2013 12:22:42


Hmmm, well still a yellow wind warning now for Scotland / Northern Ireland


This 'event' now only around 24 hours away


Originally Posted by: ElusivePolarLow 


 


Was just about to comment on that.  I would have thought confidence would be approaching very likely by now.  Maybe the latest info doesnt have it deepening as much?


Anyway off to do my Christmas shopping, i may be a while


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
belfastbrum
22 December 2013 12:31:33



Hmmm, well still a yellow wind warning now for Scotland / Northern Ireland


This 'event' now only around 24 hours away


Originally Posted by: glenogle 


 


Was just about to comment on that.  I would have thought confidence would be approaching very likely by now.  Maybe the latest info doesnt have it deepening as much?


Anyway off to do my Christmas shopping, i may be a while


Originally Posted by: ElusivePolarLow 


 


Well the BBC Weather twitter feed is using two hastags today - #weatherbomb and #explosivecyclogenesis

belfastbrum
22 December 2013 12:39:11
MetO now have amber warnings for rain in S Wales and SW, S and SE England with 20-40mm of rain forecast with 60mm over high ground
Polar Low
22 December 2013 12:42:32

Nasy looking fax chart for the n/w but good news is it does ease nicely perhaps and maybe not quite as bad for the rest of us as it was a couple of days ago


http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t60

Essan
22 December 2013 13:00:57

Reading the Chief Forecaster's Assessment, I think that there is supposed to be an amber warning out for wind as well ....

"Meanwhile, south to southwesterly winds will increase with gusts 70-80 mph likely around exposed coasts, particularly along the English Channel. Further inland, gusts of 50-60 mph are likely through the amber area, with a lower risk of gusts reaching 70 mph - more especially across southeast England during the evening."


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Phil G
22 December 2013 13:35:52
Seems incredible just to have one storm this deep so close to us, never mind two. Rare anyway but more used to seeing these close to Iceland.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.png 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png 
Essan
22 December 2013 13:47:41

Tweet earlier today from The Schafernator:

"likely that across less hardy south UK wind gusts similar to St Jude Storm but this time lasting much longer and wider area"


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 13:48:00


Having now read the warning thing, i can see why there have not been reds for previous events.  The only real difference between amber and red is "widespread"  so really depends on how they define widespread, although even by anyones definition, surely uk wide is widespread 


Originally Posted by: glenogle 


I don't think that's correct?  The Met Office website says


Red: Take action. Extreme weather is expected. Red means you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the weather. Widespread damage, travel and power disruption and risk to life is likely. You must avoid dangerous areas and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities.


'Widespread' doesn't mean for the UK it means 'widespread' within the geographic warning area.


The key difference is the word 'expected' - Amber says "increased likelihood' and 'potential' (disruption to travel, power etc).


Full explanations here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/warnings


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 13:55:35


Tweet earlier today from The Schafernator:

"likely that across less hardy south UK wind gusts similar to St Jude Storm but this time lasting much longer and wider area"


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Which is pretty much what the model output is suggesting.


I am afraid I expect tomorrow night's news to be about fallen trees and damage to cars and property - and in all probability injuries to some.  Let's hope nobody is killed, but I fear it may happen again, like the last gales.  If a tree comes down on your car there's not a lot you can do about it.


I guess if the forecast gets any worse that might move to 'Red' but I doubt the authorities would consider - or be able - to close roads and get people off the streets.


Like most here I like interesting and exciting weather but this is worrying.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Essan
22 December 2013 14:01:17



Tweet earlier today from The Schafernator:

"likely that across less hardy south UK wind gusts similar to St Jude Storm but this time lasting much longer and wider area"


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Which is pretty much what the model output is suggesting.


I am afraid I expect tomorrow night's news to be about fallen trees and damage to cars and property - and in all probability injuries to some.  Let's hope nobody is killed, but I fear it may happen again, like the last gales.  If a tree comes down on your car there's not a lot you can do about it.


I guess if the forecast gets any worse that might move to 'Red' but I doubt the authorities would consider - or be able - to close roads and get people off the streets.


Like most here I like interesting and exciting weather but this is worrying.


 

Originally Posted by: Essan 





Aye, and of course most people don't read the MetO website, or weather forums, and rely wholly on the BBC or the Daily Express for the weather forecast - if at all.  Whatever the MetO do, many will be take unawares if it is indeed as bad as we fear.


 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
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