Huge amount of rain many in a short time if this is true

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

just starting to form will be intresting to keep an eye on

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.06,53.60,1024

Edit - reload if it fails to depict the moving winds.

No warnings now for Cumbria and much of Northern England Midlands etc -  dont quite understand it. clearly not as bad as we on here think - 

Indeed and many who would stay at home will be pressured into travel and the usual frenzy that is last day food/present shopping. This could not be happening at a worse time in terms of volume of people moving across the country, by car and public transport.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/42-289.GIF?22-6

I see there is now a marked frontal wave being modelled for tomorrow night. That means even more rain and some ferocious winds, gusting 130-140kph for a time in the Channel, which is 81-87mph...!

WRF-NMM goes with 120-130kph so there's room for a slight downgrade from the GFS version. At least that peak down south looks to be overnight, though the day is hardly much better with 100-120kph gusts depending on which model you look at.

As for the rain...

I must admit that, having spent so much time on the university campus in Reading without any time to get out and about, I assumed that water levels in the local rivers would not be all that high after the run of 21 days without appreciable rainfall 22nd November to 12th December, even after the recent deluge... but boy was I wrong!

The river levels around here are very high, and visiting Moors Valley today, I was amazed to see the lake already overflowing into the neighbouring fields. There was some notable surface flooding on the roads too.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/48-777.GIF?22-6

With that in mind, 45mm in the next 48 hours has the potential to bring water levels about as high as they were in late December 2012. The storm later this week could then raise them higher still...

We sure are having a wild end to 2013, which will mask what has generally been a rather average year overall here (despite the notable variation between spring and summer!).

No its in the afternoon 2.45pm

We have been looking more at gusts but the sustained wind speeds are pretty remarkable too. This image from the 06Z Hirlam has wind in knots.

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

The storm is due to arrive in the Worcester area around 9-10am

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122212/21-289UK.GIF?22-12

If you aim to arrive at noon you'll be arriving during the worst of it

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122212/24-289UK.GIF?22-12

If you want to go in the morning I would suggest leaving before 8am, to get there by 10am at latest.

Or wait until Xmas Eve

I have to say are we being a bit dramatic about travel plans?? If it was that bad wouldn't the forecasts being saying travel only if neccassary ?

Just asking the question

Better to be safe than sorry, anyway.

Still looking pretty bleak down here tomorrow evening, FWIW - mean windspeeds according to the NAE will be in the 40s across Kent (mean of over 50 around the east Kent coasts) and GFS shows gusts to 70-75 MPH at the same time.

The 0z ECM has winds that are 5 MPH or so weaker than the 12z NAE is showing. There are all sorts of data fields on the ECM suite but sadly gust data isn't amongst them.

(FWIW, the ECM shows the low at 927hPa at T+60 and T+66).

Which is my point Darren , I would have thought the Beeb would take the cautious side as they do when we have 2cm of snow

I'm sure that's what the guy whose van was crushed by a tree in the St.Jude storm thought.

If you have a chance to modify your travel plans to avoid being caught out in potentially dangerous conditions then I woudl take that chance.

It's dealing with the unknowns - you don't know if the tree 50 metres ahead of you is going to pick that moment to succumb to the next severe gust of wind.  If the tree doesn't get you perhaps the guy coming the other way who swerves to avoid it will.  Why put yourself - and family - in harm's way if you can avoid it.

OK

My point which I have made poorly is if we can see it is dangerous why aren't the forecasts saying the same thing, as I previously said much caution is given when 2cm of snow why not 70mph gusts

Chris Fawkes with weather for the week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25485532

giving jet stream as 275 mph 'the strongest he's ever seen', and the storm underneath it bombing by 80Mb in 24 hr

Which is sensible

As Global Warming has said above - and as I saw on the News earlier, the train companies are taking this seriously.  I would imagine any business that involves transporting goods or people will be thinking hard about tomorrow and Xmas Eve.

There are Amber alerts out for all of the southern counties and south Wales

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387843200

I wouldn't be surprised to see some upgrading of these once the latest model runs are available.

I would still advise an earlier start, as I said earlier - try to be there by mid-morning.

Is there any storm surge associated with this upcoming period.  I seem to remember the one that hit the east coast being blamed on the pressure being so low.  With the pressure lower on this one, is it likely to affect west coast in same way as before?

 http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/301549/article_img.jpg

Oban

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Another pumelling on Tuesday for us then....looks like 80mph yet again. MO are warning 80 - 90mph and the Uig forecast (10 miles south of here and sheltered) is showing gusts to 75mph. I add 10mph for our exposure 

To be fair, a squall has just pushed through, it blasterd us with 75mph gusts for about 5 minutes, and wind speeds of 60mph. So 70mph is the new "normal" 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=slpw&HH=57&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=