UK Outlook for Monday 30 Dec 2013 to Wednesday 8 Jan 2014:

Rain clearing most parts early on Monday, with brighter spells and showers following for a time before rain returns later and for part of Tuesday. Windy then too, especially in the north and west with gales at times. Also some hill snow in the north early next week. The unsettled theme continues through the New Year period and beyond with further spells of wet and windy weather and occasional gales being interspersed with some brighter, colder and showery interludes. These showers could turn increasingly wintry, especially over hills, but perhaps also to some lower levels later. Temperatures likely to be near or just below normal in the north and a little above average at times further south. Nights also tending to turn colder bringing an increasing risk of icy patches.

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Jan 2014 to Thursday 23 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled theme to early January weather conditions being more likely than not to persist through the middle half of the month. Spells of dull, wet and windy weather would then alternate with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks and perhaps even slightly below average.

Issued at: 1600 on Wed 25 Dec 2013

Cooling trend

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead

Where the hell are they picking that up from

And with moderate confidence

There is NO hint whatsoever in the current output that suggests this , what info have they for such a change in conditions

I find that very odd , it is as though they have shut their eyes and picked a weather pattern

As my children say " itchy chin"

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Sunday 26 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

Issued at: 0400 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

I am always looking for cold as most on here know, the signs have been a flash in a pan, here today and gone the next.

The Met Office update has only just appeared and the previous update said slightly below average , something has changed overnight

I understand what you say about the strat bit...........but would they even mention it?

where do you think the weatheronline boys get  their monthly update from, that is so strange?

Quite a sensible weather related article from the Express today for a change, focussing on the failngs of our infrastructure and government response

I think we have to assume they don't do 'knee-jerk' reactions, so I would assume there is something in the way patterns are evolving in some of the ensemble runs - which may indeed be stratosphere related.  I think it's reasonable to assume that they would start to make reference to the potential once it is being modelled consistently. After that, a little like the weather warnings, the mention of the risk will increase if the output increases the probabilities.

One clue we might expect is when they start to shade some regional variation into the colder theme, i.e. will it be coldest for eastern/southern parts or northern parts - in terms of whether they see a continental or northerly influence.

Evening 

Here are my updated thoughts for the weather in Kent for the week ahead (30th December 2013 - 6th January 2014)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNidxBXQcAk

where do you think the weatheronline boys get  their monthly update from, that is so strange?

 as far as i know their monthly updates are based on cfs, jma and korean long range models. they produce a forecast using that as a base and experience. cfs is often way out but recently has been predicting a sharp drop in temps as we go through jan, timing a little all over the place but it does now start to look like it was right.

not the most inspiring long term outlook for those of hoping for some snow. At oods with Weatheronline forcast for similar period.

Me, I am torn, love the cold and snow but quite enjoying the average temps and not having to de-ice car etc etc every day.

Monday 13 January—Sunday 26 January 2014

Will the weather ever ease up?

For the end of January it looks as though the unsettled weather will continue across the UK. However, it does look like the amount of low pressure systems bringing wet and windy weather will decrease with the chances of some drier brighter weather increasing. With temperatures expected to be hovering around what we would expect for this time of year it doesn't look good for those wanting to see some snow

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 28 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging to suggest temperatures being less mild in general terms than during the first half of January, with the possibility of colder weather later in the month.

Issued at: 1600 on Mon 30 Dec 2013

The word 'Significantly' has been dropped from the forecast, obviously saving that for a future update

"... December is currently some 2C (35.6F) above normal for the month."

Paul Simons in the Times, suffering at the hands of a scientifically illiterate sub-editor  (at least, I hope he has that excuse)