LOLOLOLOL

how can you get angry at that, its frigging hillarious.

I nearly PMSLd

Thanks for putting me in a good mood!

One of my pet hates that - you see it an amazing amount. Mind you I sometimes think I am the only scientifically literate sub-editor in my office.

^^^^^^^^^

Or out to the NW

Warnings out for the Chichester Harbour and Portsmouth areas - don't know why East Kent is exempt

Thorney Island to Bracklesham

Time and date of high water 10:45 on 01/01/2014 Predicted astronomical tide level 2.31 mAOD Forecast surge height 0.26 m Forecast high water level 2.57 mAOD Forecast high water level in Chart Datum 5.35 mCD Forecast wind direction Southerly Forecast wind strength Force 8 This Flood Alert is issued for Wednesday mornings high tide. Levels should be a little less than those seen Tuesday morning, but disruption could still be experienced along Bosham High Street, especially if the tide comes in above forecast. Tides will remain high for the remainder of the week. It is likely this Flood Alert will be issued every day up to and including Monday 6th January.

from http://www.shoothill.com/FloodMap/

I found the intial comment odd anyway

BBC forecasts at odds with the metoffice

"For the end of January it looks as though the unsettled weather will continue across the UK. However, it does look like the amount of low pressure systems bringing wet and windy weather will decrease with the chances of some drier brighter weather increasing. With temperatures expected to be hovering around what we would expect for this time of year it doesn't look good for those wanting to see some snow."

This seems to be based on the ECMWF and UKMO.

Weird......tonights/ saturdays forcast from the metoffice for southwest england doesnt really match up with the warning that has just been issued?? Seems as though the two forcasters are not communicating haha

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead

I wonder if this could end up being right?

UK Outlook for Friday 10 Jan 2014 to Sunday 19 Jan 2014:

The unsettled theme looks set to continue through the end of next week and into the following week. Whilst this means showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. Showery rain and occasional gales are most likely in the north and west, with drier, brighter weather in southern and eastern parts. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal at first but turn colder later with most areas seeing an increasing risk of frost and ice. Later in the period it will remain mainly unsettled with the north and west generally wettest and the east and southeast seeing the best of drier and brighter weather, and more frequent colder spells.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 5 Jan 2014

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Jan 2014 to Monday 3 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as during recent weeks. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month. This would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 5 Jan 2014

Increasing confidence from the Met of a cooling down and calmer weather mid- to end-of the month.

Don't know whether this article has been referenced elsewhere, but it is from today's Sunday Times here:

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1359485.ece

"Switch in jet stream blamed for havoc

Britain’s meteorologists have coined a new term for the succession of storms battering the nation: the Ebdon effect, writes Jonathan Leake.

They believe the remarkable succession of powerful storms that have crossed the Atlantic to assault the country with gales and rain are linked to the equatorial jet stream, a giant belt of air that flows around the entire globe, at a height of 10 to 25 miles above the equator.

In 1975 Bob Ebdon, a little-known Met office scientist, discovered that when the equatorial jet stream changes direction and starts flowing west to east along the equator — as now — it sharply raises the risk of a succession of powerful storms hitting Britain.

“The current flow, from west to east, means the equatorial jet stream is flowing in the same direction as the polar jet stream that brings Britain its weather,” said Professor Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the Met Office “This allows the polar jet stream to grow stronger and move north, which in turn increases our exposure to depressions and storms that would otherwise have hit southern Europe.

“The polar jet stream also gets stronger and has exceeded 220mph — nearly twice as strong as normal — on many occasions this winter. These links were first discovered by Bob Ebdon.”

Ebdon’s revelation may help explain one of Britain’s biggest weather disasters of the last century, the Great Storm of 1987, when hurricane-force winds ripped across southern England destroying millions of trees and wrecking homes.

“Although we can’t say the Ebdon effect caused the recent storms, we can say it significantly increased the risk of them happening,” said Scaife. “I’ve looked back through the records and found the jet streams were in the same state in October 1987 during the Great Storm.”

This weekend Britain looked set for yet another battering, with a huge depression moving across the Atlantic. There is, however, some good news ahead — at least for meteorologists.

The Met Office has found the equatorial jet stream’s changes in direction, known as the quasi-biennial oscillation, can be predicted months or even years ahead, an observation that could bring sharp improvements in long-range forecasting. Scaife and his colleagues are building a computer model to exploit the finding.

For the rest of us, there may be hope in observations that the equatorial jet stream’s strength is waning. Over the coming months, it should first halt then restart in the opposite direction.

What kind of weather might that bring next winter? Weather is essentially chaotic, so no one can be sure, but there is at least a chance of something different — perhaps a big freeze and lots of snow. It is winter after all.

@jonathan__leake"

Great post MM - Love info like this - Anything that might help wrt probabilities is always useful

Evening all 

Here are my updated thoughts for the weather in Kent for the next 7-10 days (6-16th January 2014).

Thanks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO-c4fjc_k4

Metoffice seems to have lost all faith in a cold spell and is now relagating it until next month.

"Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting through to the end of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as earlier in the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types early next month."

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Jan 2014 to Monday 20 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. A band of rain lying across the UK on Saturday will be the focus for the most unsettled weather but it will weaken during the weekend. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal at first but turn rather colder with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Thereafter, more changeable conditions are likely in the north and west of the UK with the best of the drier weather in the south and southeast. It will be rather cold in the north with an increasing risk of snow, mainly over northern hills, and nearer normal further south but an increased frost risk.

Updated: 1134 on Mon 6 Jan 2014

A more wintery 6 to 15 day outlook than yesterday's, I would suggest.

Yes but they are talking about cold sectors, not cold blocks. There is basically no chance at all of any significant cold weather before the 20th, all the models agree on that. And now the 16-31day outlook where significantly colder weather is still possible is suggesting a continuation of unsettled and avg/mild conditions. 

Paul Hudson @Hudsonweather

Pic highlights coast storm nothing new via @ElinCeredigion & @weatherschool Marine Terrace, Aberystwyth Oct 28th 1927

Why , what did I miss?

Trawling through Facebook, I see that the general public are now getting worked up over the wording "Polar Vortex" as the term has now become this year's "buzz word". I guess the media isn't helping by conjuring up mental images of ultra cold air being sucked into a black hole over the North Pole.