I recall you mentioning a while back that flooding may not be an issue in the current weather as it had been pretty dry for a while but the reality unfolding has seen far more rain than I was expecting and everything now is saturated. Winchester may well have picked up 5 inches of rain in just over 10 days and a pattern such as you suggest will simply exacerbate the problem. Brians MLblocking winter looks doomed

or maybe just the right side of marginal rob which we all know delivers the most snowfall !!  on a more serious note, ecm extended ens are now consistently taking the jet south through week 2 with a general trough in nw europe and the secondary systems running nw/se into the continent.  naefs isnt in quite the same place but there were a few gfs members headed this way (as was the op) so perhaps its the GEM ens holding naefs back in this regard.

Jas the charts that I have been looking show a cooler trend ................any chance you can post the links to the charts you have been looking at old chap

Sounds drastic - Usually when a situation like this happens - an exceptionally severe storm materialises from the likes of this.

Worrying if you ask me.

Indeed they do. Here is the 12z ECM ensemble for London:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

The main cluster of members sits around maxima of 5-6C and minima close to or a little below 0C.  Noticeably fewer members going for anything above average for early Jan, perhaps 10-15% from Day 11 onwards.

The Op has four distinct periods of rain, the first 3 well supported by the ensemble members, the last one rather less so.

High pressure attempting to get in from the east later on - Doesn't get far though.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Good morning folks. Here is todays report taken from the 12 midnight outputs of NWP for today Christmas Eve 24th December 2013.

All models show an intense depression close to the far NW of Scotland with a showery WSW flow over the UK following the stormy fronts clearance over the SE later this morning. The showers will be heavy but scattered with some snow over the hills at times. The strong winds will gradually subside away from the far NW by tonight. Christmas Day and Boxing Day are shown with our deep depression filling to the North and moving away with both days being dry and bright days for many though coastal areas of the South and West may see scattered showers, still wintry over the hills. It will feel rather cold. Late on Boxing Day another rapidly deepening Low is shown to drift past Western Ireland and Scotland with yet more heavy rain and severe gales over Boxing Night clearing to sunshine and showers, wintry on hills again over Friday and Saturday.

GFS then shows a cool and showery end to the weekend as winds blow down from the NW though much lighter than previously. Then as next week begins it's back to square 1 as a new deepening Low swings NE over the North with strong winds and rain for all followed by showers, turning wintry from the North on New Years Eve. Then through the extended parts of it's output the run keeps very changeable conditions going over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain in near average temperatures but it looks less stormy than recently.

UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure up to the NW of Britain with another set of fronts carrying strong winds and rain across the UK to start next week.

GEM today also keeps Low pressure belts to the North and NW with strong WSW flows over the UK with spells of rain and showers for all in average temperaturs.

NAVGEM is similar with deep Low pressure ending up just to the West of the UK a week from now with wet and windy weather still the most dominant weather events for the UK in temperatures near average.

ECM this morning also shows very changeable conditions persisting into the New Year with fast moving depressions crossing the Atlantic to the NW or indeed over the UK maintaining the very frequent areas of rain followed by showers type weather going. The depressions are shown to be less deep though and as a result the winds should not be as fierce later.

The GFS Ensembles trend very slightly downward in the 850 values late in the run but there is little overall evidence of a major shift towards anything generally cold. Instead there is less heavy rain shown later in the run with the emphasis shifting more towards the NW later.

The Jet Stream profile remains wrong for cold over the UK in the coming two weeks. The flow remains strong and while it remains just South of the UK currently it moves back North over the UK later and tracks in a NE direction across or to the NW of Britain late in the run.

In Summary the weather remains very unsettled for the foreseeable future. There is still room for more severe weather in the pre New Year period as more storm systems develop very deeply to the NW. However, as time goes the depressions look less intense as we move into the New Year and while they will still each bring their own version of wind and rain to many areas they look less inclined to bring severe gales. However, the further rain they bring will only exasipate the already saturated ground to maintain a flood risk in places. For those looking for colder weather I have nothing to report this morning as if anything the amount of wintriness in the showers on the passing of each storm system looks likely to become more and more restricted to the ususal locations over the mountains of the North with temperatures holding up well towards average in the basic West or SW flow.

Thank you Martin.

Output for this Friday is more winds that I could do without for off visiting people...

Yes indeed. I'm unable to update my website this morning due to power failures in the SE from yesterdays storm where my server resides.

GFS is being fairly consistent in modelling an active frontal system for Sunday/Monday with winds almost as strong as we've just had here in the south, and there is support from ECM and UKMO for this.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122400/150-289.GIF?24-0

It does look to be a much briefer affair, though.

Rainfall looks to be a bigger concern for many:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122400/168-777.GIF?24-0

...particularly in the far West but also around here - Boscombe Down had the highest rainfall total yesterday, and that's not far north of me. I'm amazed that it saw more than all of the stations across Devon and Cornwall, but that's what it says on the Met Office summary page.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013122400/gem-0-240.png?00

GEM offers some hope for coldies

GFS tries but fails to build heights. Could be another long and frustrating spell of model watching. Dont expect anything before mid Jan is my advice. Might happen sooner, which would be a bonus

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

This would bring something wintry

Can't see any sign in the models of an end to the temperature gradient driven storm factory off the Eastern Seaboard. This is a very stable pattern, and it's hard to see what will break it until the Gulf of Mexico runs out of very warm air, or Canada runs out of very cold. Hard to see how any blocking could form, let alone be sustained.

Not yet until end of Jan when I return from Canada can lose the very cold air and anyway it cannot last too long the very cold air over there as it arrived very early this winter than normal.  

but the 15 day ecm ens mean is consistently showing heights dropping over france as we head through week 2 ?????

So ECM is the be all and end all