Good evening from a very stormy West Country. Here is the latest look at the midday outputs from the NWP output for today Monday December 23rd 2013.
All output tonight shows a very intense depression West of the Hebrides with some exceptionally low central pressure readings over the next 12-24 hours as its is shown to move gently North. The spell of torrential rain and severe gales continues across Southern Britain for another 6-9 hours before a clearance from the West later in the night sees wind speeds fall and the rain turn more showery as it turns somewhat colder. In the far NW storm force winds for a time later tonight and at first tomorrow are possible. All areas are shown to see a windy day tomorrow as the Low still has total influence over all areas tomorrow with a mix of sunshine and squally showers for all. Through Christmas day and Boxing Day the weather relaxes somewhat in a sunshine and showery mix with some welcome relief from strong winds for most. By Friday a new intense Low moves NE close to Western Ireland deepening explosively and returning rain and severe gales once more to all areas through the course of the day. the weekend then becomes rather colder and showery again in a blustery Westerly flow.
GFS then shows a continuation of wet and stormy conditions through the period from the weekend and over the New Year with continued flooding and high wind speeds still very newsworthy at times. Once into the New Year though still very changeable and often wet the weather becomes less stormy and steadily colder at times with some sleet or snow featuring across the UK and not always just over the hills.
UKMO tonight shows Sundays chart with yet another rapidly deepening depression moving NE close to Northern Ireland with severe gales renewed over Southern Britain and heavy, persistent rain sweeping NE to England and Wales through the day.
GEM tonight shows a barrage of Low pressure and strong winds across the UK on the run up to the New Year and some way beyond with an awful lot of rain and periods of very strong winds the main ingredients of the weather with academically average temperatures throughout.
NAVGEM too shows no let up in the windy and very wet weather at times from Christmas out to New Years Eve at least.
ECM also shows very changeable and often wet and windy weather well into the New Year though the intensity of the wind may reduce somewhat as we move into 2014.
The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions continuing throughout with wet weather at times for all. The very worst of the rain may lessen with time. The colder weather that develops from the operational late in the run is not well supported by other members of the ensemble group.
The Jet Stream continues to power Eastward over the Atlantic and around the British Isles throughout the run with the usual oscillating pattern North then South very indicative of very changeable and stormy weather.
In Summary there is still a lot of support for a lot more very strong winds and heavy rain for a good while yet before things improve somewhat. It is unlikely that any improvement of note in the current pattern will take place this side of the New Year and with a very strong Jet Stream in conjunction with stark temperature contrasts over the States showing little signs of relenting the pattern could well last out towards the middle of January before any significant change arrives.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY