Good morning and a very Merry Christmas to you all. Here is the latest look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday December 25th 2013.

All models show a slightly showery SW flow across the UK with most inland places away from windward coasts having a dry Christmas Day with showers heavy and wintry near mostly Southern and Western Coasts and over Scotland. Pressure continues to rise gently tonight and for a time tomorrow but many places will be dry and bright. Later tomorrow a new Low is shown to approach NW Britain deepening rapidly and giving rise to a repeat of the wind and rain of Monday, come Friday with severe gales and heavy rain making a return to all areas before clearer showery conditions arrive in the West at the end of the day. The weekend then stays unsettled and windy with showers and sunny intervals and chilly weather with some wintry showers and gales slowly decreasing through the weekend. By the end of Sunday yet another Low pressure is shown to approach from the West.

GFS then shows a wet and windy start to next week as the next Low anchors up to the NW with SW winds with gales in exposure bring further rain and showers NE across all areas up to the New Year. Then the first week and a bit of 2014 continue to be very changeable and sometimes wet as further Low pressure crosses East to the North of the UK with rain and showers at times with the chance of some sleet or snow at times on the hills of the North especially later.

UKMO this morning shows deep Low pressure centred three to four hundred miles to the West of Ireland with a South or SW flow carrying a trough NE across the UK with rain at times for all though at this stage abnormally strong winds may not be an issue.

GEM shows a continuation of the fast moving Low pressure systems crossing the Atlantic and to the North of the UK with strong and locally gale force winds for much of the time continuing to carry spells of rain followed by showers in average temperatures and restricting any snowfall to the hills and mountains of the North.

NAVGEM is very similar with no let up in the sometimes wet and windy weather a week from now.

ECM keeps things very unsettled with a deep trough over the UK later in it's run showing very little signs of releasing it's grip. It does suck in rather colder air down across the UK from the NW which would turn some of the outbreaks of rain and showers to a more wintry mix especially over the hills from a weeks time.

The GFS Ensembles show very little sign of any pattern change anytime soon as the Atlantic train is allowed to continue it's current progression aided by a powerful Jet Stream and huge temperature contrasts over the other side of the Atlantic. High pressure may play a bigger role between the Low's offering some brief respite in the South for a day or two on occasion but overall the suggestion from the pack remains an unsettled one in average temperatures.

The Jet Stream remains it's undulating sine wave pattern across or just South of the UK spawning deep Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic for some time to come. There is little overall sign of a significant enough change in this pattern to indicate any pattern change within the time frame of this morning's output.

In Summary it all looks more of the same this morning. All models show little if any sign of relenting from the often wet pattern of rain followed by showers as each successive Low crosses over. Thankfully the risk of damaging winds look less likely though winds will remain lively and gale force at times. Temperatures look like holding close to average throughout with just a few brief colder incursions shown from the NW on occasion when temperatures fall just a little below average supporting snow on Northern hills. Equally though there may be some milder days in the South as mild sectors pass through. All in all though the models have provided us with a very standard mobile Atlantic based outlook this Christmas morning. So my best advice is take a break from the models today and have a very merry Christmas with all your nearest and dearest.

Thank you Martin for your output. The summary say's it all..

Merry Christmas outputers and readers...

ECM output interesting to say the least. Of course one swallow doesn't make a summer. 

Thanks very much Martin,

 A very merry and safe xmas and new year to all members at Two and thanks to Brian and all moderators who also make it all happen.

Tim

Indeed - I would have thought there would have been more interest, but as it's Christmas I reckon people have other things to think about!

The 0z ECM-15 control run maintains the theme of a change of sorts towards the end of its run, with lows again moving ever southwards and eventually setting up an easterly for England and Wales. That, combined with the operational, yesterday's 12z and the 0z ECM-32 from yesterday is enough to make me take notice... it's likely the ECM model has picked up on a signal but as yet it's so far out the detail is hard to pin down.

I would call it tenous at the moment, the situation in the arctic is moderately good (but not perfect), and the blocking fairly weak. I would guess it would be enough provided the atlantic could just calm down for a short while. A spell of moderation over canada would really help. I'd put the odds at about 30% of this particular event coming to fruitation. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Chart of the Winter so far and was on the mild side in the ENS

cant see that the ecm suite supports strong height rises to our north. ncep/gem has been playing with this. ecm much flatter. the  consistent ecm signal is for the jet to align nw/se as the azores high pulls back towards newfoundland. the jet stays strong delivering systems into europe which have to pass across our part of nw europe. the track of these secondary lows will dictate where any snowfall ends up. not expecting anything of note before the 6th/7th.  there will have to some blocking to our north but i suspect it will be of the weak variety - weak but very effective. also possible tranisent amplified ridges between systems.

Interesting GFS 6Z.

Some buckling of the jet over US as the cold pool over North America digs so far south that it over extends itself. As the wave propagates it forces WAA up the west side of greenland. A couple of topplers to start with probably but it could be the start of a significant change.

Hi Nick and Merry Christmas

The ECM ensemble mean has been trending colder into the first week of the New year for several days now.  Initially beyond Day 10 there are two groupings, one with average temperatures and one with cold. By Days 14-15 the milder grouping just becomes scatter. The colder one gives highs of around 3C and overnight lows around -1/-2C.  Nothing very cold but certainly indicative of a change perhaps to colder zonality?

Another four bouts of rain showing up well, quite well supported by the Ensemble mean and very much in agreement with the GFS run.

So, another week to 10 days of zonality but gradually changing in nature as we head into the New Year.

and to you Gandy. the ecm extended ens have been singing a very consistent theme of troughing in two weeks time but, more importantly, also to our south. mean slp remains low towards iceland and the low anomoly around us keeps restoring so it appears to show a similar story to now (though with much less cyclogenesis) but depressions on a track around a mid atlantic high and dropping south through us.  that presents a very difficult scenario on the nwp as pinning down the track of the depressions will vary run to run and obviously deliver very different surface conditions across the uk.

Agreed.  that said, the GFS ensembles have been remarkably "tight" over the past fortnight and continue that trend giving reasonable confidemce, albeit trending colder:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

10th January to bear in mind.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

another interesting FI but it takes a hell of a long time to get there. High pressure over Europe again the problem

UKMO has Friday's storm further south than GFS