Am I correct in remembering a few dream charts from Xmas past, that soon disappeared once the festive season was over? Aeroplane data or some such.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
But they're not! These kinds of Synoptics for after the new year have been showing up on gfs for over week, it's just they keep looking better the closer we get... also most on here where either blinded by the constant bombardment of storms or simply refused to take note of the bigger picture that was and has continued to be modelled by the gfs.
I said on here a few days ago I think we would be looking at a significant cold blast into the second week of January. (Who knows maybe a little early) :)
Maybe my memory is hazy here but I'm sure it was the gfs that first picked up on the block of 09/10 and again 2010.., ECM played catch up both times.
Originally Posted by: picturesareme
If i'm honest, my intuition says until that cold air clears from canada; I really think we will struggle to setup any kind of block.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
What has been showing though originates towards the north/ northeast with the block transitioning towards Greenland. Though other variants have had it descending over Greenland from the pole.
Originally Posted by: picturesareme
Yeh but conditions have been favourible over the arctic for a while, the falling AO now is no different. Personally I think that a block may start to setup, but will topple very easily to the storms coming in from canada. That seems more of a natural solution at the moment, then the storms being deflected to the north or the south. Having said that, if we can get a big LP delayed by a greenland high, then that may start to introduce some much needed WAA, and may in the long run cause a transition to colder weather after another attempt or so. My guess is we will have to wait until mid january, or at least the 2nd week.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
I'm stilling sticking to what I said a few days ago, we will be staring down the barrels of a significant cold spell by the 9th January. 🙂
Originally Posted by: picturesareme
To be fair 9th of january is the 2nd week
But I don't share your confidence, we have such an unusually cold pool over canada; wanting to keep the natural order of things going verses tenous attempts at northern blocking. Actually the GFS and ECM cool things down, rather than the converse. Also while Canada has a cold pool, Europe and scandanavia don't so even if a block does setup; it will not instantly produce cold weather, and a transition period of days may be expected.
If I had to be specific (which is probably a bad idea)
I would say that there will be a notherly toppler sometime around the 9th of january mark, proceeded by a mild spell and then perhaps a more sustained cold spell provided things continue to look favourible which may not be the case. It might just be a mild snowless winter this year.
Originally Posted by: Edicius81