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eddied
26 December 2013 08:33:39
Now thoughts turn to Friday I guess. Watching it very closely and it doesn't look to clever at the moment.

Oh and following upon my posts before the last storm, we left early on Monday and managed to drive from Surrey to Worcester by 11 o'clock. I think my family thought I was mad to be driving them so hard in the morning. Last half hours of atrocious driving and the news on Christmas Eve made my point.

I would also say, this has all been extremely well forecasted so far. We often like to think we're never prepared in this country, but this event, along with the storm surge in the North Sea the weeks before show that real headway has been made in last couple of decades.
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Deep Powder
26 December 2013 10:01:18

Two hours of moderate to very heavy rain here this evening - the parting gift from the huge storm complex, and one we really could have done with rejecting!
Most local streams are now running at a little way above above normal levels, having peaked at record high levels in the early hours of Tuesday (true for both East Mills Stream and Dockens Water in/near Ringwood, for example)
The Avon is a little above normal and, as usual, it will be the longer-term rainfall that matters most as far as the river is concerned. Unfortunately that looks to be rather high in the near future, with the 18z GFS op run bringing 31.5mm by month's end, which would give a month total of 178.5mm, which beats last year (151.2mm) for my wettest recorded December (though that is only since 2005).

Autumn as a whole looks like being about 70mm drier than that of 2012 (and 100mm behind 2009), yet the flooding I've seen has been worse in peak magnitude, and that all comes down to the fact that Monday into Tuesday delivered a staggering 79.2mm, nearly all within a 24 hour period, which blows away my previous record which I believe is near 40mm (too late to bother trawling through my records for that one right now). The major rivers were barely into flood stage while anywhere with small streams having flash responses saw some truly incredible flooding from around the start of Tuesday to sometime in the afternoon/evening. While stream levels have since fallen a great amount, there's still a lot of residual floodwater out there, and most backroads are smeared with mud and strewn with stones - cycling 30 miles through it all yesterday was an experience I won't forget in a hurry!
No surprise that the last time such a vast rainfall event occured here was most likely during that intense storm at the end of October 2002. For whatever reason, the July 2007 event didn't deliver nearly as much (less than 40mm) here - a lucky escape I suppose.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 



I went for a bike ride IMBY yesterday, did not do 30 miles, more like 15, but cycled around areas where it was flooded much like you did. My experience was very similar, although water levels had receded, the amount of mud, debris etc. that had been strewn all over paths and roads that had been flooded, was phenomenal! I cycled past the Buford bridge hotel and it was all smeared with mud and looked a state, felt really sorry for folks who were meant to have Xmas dinner there.

In places the river mole was still very high and bridges were on the verge of being breached. Lots of people were out for a pre lunch stroll and were taking photos of themselves by the floods, lots of voyeurism going on. Almost like tourists viewing a famous landmark......

It all felt quite strange to see all of this on Xmas day, but the extent of the flooding was something to behold........
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Gandalf The White
26 December 2013 10:04:48

Now thoughts turn to Friday I guess. Watching it very closely and it doesn't look to clever at the moment.

Oh and following upon my posts before the last storm, we left early on Monday and managed to drive from Surrey to Worcester by 11 o'clock. I think my family thought I was mad to be driving them so hard in the morning. Last half hours of atrocious driving and the news on Christmas Eve made my point.

I would also say, this has all been extremely well forecasted so far. We often like to think we're never prepared in this country, but this event, along with the storm surge in the North Sea the weeks before show that real headway has been made in last couple of decades.

Originally Posted by: eddied 



Glad to hear you moved your travel plans forward. I agree it's not looking great again, strong winds for west and north plus a lot of rain for southern counties.

Not the last of the year either.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


26 December 2013 10:08:44

Looking like another nasty day for many tomorrow. Low centre expected to reach 943mb by midnight tonight before gradually filling


Fax charts


6z today - Low centre is at 968mb http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+00.gif


0z Friday - Low centre at 943mb http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+24


So 25mb of deepening in 18 hours


12z Friday - a wave is developing on the cold front. Will this push the front back into the SE corner or is it far enough into France by now to keep the wave across the Channel? Probably depends on how much this wave develops. If it is just a ripple along the front as is currently forecast then should not affect us. If a significant wave develops as it did on Monday's storm then could be a different matter. http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+36.gif


0z Saturday - further waves develop on what is now a slow moving cold front. Hopefully the modelling has it right and the front gets strung out across France and not the SE of the UK where we really don't need any more rain. Would only need to be 100-150 miles further west to cause real problems. http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+48.gif


GFS 6z


Pressure charts
0z http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/18-515UK.GIF?26-6
3z http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/21-515UK.GIF?26-6
6z http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/24-515UK.GIF?26-6
12z http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/30-515UK.GIF?26-6


A spell of fairly heavy rain for most. A bit less for the Midlands but quite a bit for southern England unfortunately.
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/18-779UK.GIF?26-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/21-779UK.GIF?26-6


Not as windy as Monday but still some strong gusts. Looks particularly bad for the Midlands around 9z tomorrow
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/18-289UK.GIF?26-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/21-289UK.GIF?26-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/27-289UK.GIF?26-6


6z NAE


Also shows significant rainfall right along the south coast of 20-25mm with much less over the Midlands. Western facing coasts and hills in the north of England and Scotland will also see a lot of rain. Unfortunately Sussex, Surrey and Kent look to be getting the worst of it again across southern England, along with parts of Devon.


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/26/basis06/ukuk/rsum/13122806_2_2606.gif

26 December 2013 10:24:54

Need to keep an eye on Sunday night as well. A narrow band of very strong winds moving across England and Wales. Gusts possible of 100-110kph even inland (60-70mph) for a short period.


GFS wind gusts
0z Monday http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/90-289UK.GIF?26-6
6z Monday http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/96-289UK.GIF?26-6


Associated with the passage of a cold front (or could well be an occlusion by then based on the current fax charts). The front is along the line of the southward dip in the isobars.
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122606/90-515UK.GIF?26-6


So probably a very active squall line along that front.


A secondary low then develops during Monday bringing more wet and windy weather later on Monday evening to northern areas. Meanwhile at the same time a wave on the cold front develops off the NW coast of Spain which could bring more wet weather into southern England on Monday night. Another low is developing off the eastern coast of Canada which could keep the unsettled weather going if it tracks across the Atlantic.
http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+120.gif

Jive Buddy
26 December 2013 10:27:34

We're still dealing with the after effects of Monday night's storm. We're (British Red Cross Emergency Response) just sorting out a plan of action to assist residents in the Dover area, who've been without power since Monday.


PS - Would it not be better to have a new thread for tomorrow's storm? (new synoptics, possibly new areas involved, etc)


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
tinybill
26 December 2013 10:58:58
watching the news reg byefleet retail park looks a bit wet there at the moment!!
cultman1
26 December 2013 11:33:24
Is there any end to these unceasing storms/rain from the Atlantic? People will be looking to a change in conditions after weeks of this damaging weather...
Saint Snow
26 December 2013 11:50:22

Is there any end to these unceasing storms/rain from the Atlantic? People will be looking to a change in conditions after weeks of this damaging weather...

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


 


Yup, and the same people likely whingeing if it turned colder or snowier.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Matty H
26 December 2013 11:51:49

Is there any end to these unceasing storms/rain from the Atlantic? People will be looking to a change in conditions after weeks of this damaging weather...

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Yup, and the same people likely whingeing if it turned colder or snowier.

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Fortunately it doesn't look like they'll get that option for some considerable time still 👅

The rain is a real concern
26 December 2013 11:54:50

Only subtle changes to the Met Office warnings this morning which remain yellow for now. We could well see some amber warnings later today.


Northern England has been removed from the yellow rain warning. But still 25mm or more expected locally tomorrow for Wales, Northern Ireland and Southern England and 40mm in parts of Scotland and over Dartmoor.


The yellow wind warning has been extended further south to include all of Northern Ireland and additional areas of England. Gusts of 50-60mph widely inland in the warning area with 70-80mph gusts on the coasts and hills.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1388102400&regionName=uk

26 December 2013 12:02:29

Latest fax chart for 06z tomorrow. Looks very nasty for southern Ireland


http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+24.gif


Met Eireann are not messing about and have already issued a red warning for wind in some counties. Warning is effective for 23 hours from 4pm today.


Winds could reach 150kph in exposed coastal areas (93mph).


http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp


 

26 December 2013 12:18:27

Rapid cyclogenesis now taking place with the lastest storm system moving in from the west.


Buoy M6 well to the west of Ireland is reporting a pressure fall of 3.6mb in the hour from 10z to 11z to 980.7mb. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62095&unit=M&tz=STN


Worth keeping an eye on this in the next few hours and also Buoy K4 west of Northern Ireland which should be very close to the centre of the low between about 0z and 3z tomorrow. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62105

marting
26 December 2013 12:24:22
Amber warning for winds now out for north west england
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
dagspot
26 December 2013 12:54:10

Rapid cyclogenesis

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Seems to be in the in-fashion term this season. Don't think Ive seen it mentioned so many times.


Neilston 600ft ASL
AIMSIR
26 December 2013 13:02:16


Latest fax chart for 06z tomorrow. Looks very nasty for southern Ireland


http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+24.gif


Met Eireann are not messing about and have already issued a red warning for wind in some counties. Warning is effective for 23 hours from 4pm today.


Winds could reach 150kph in exposed coastal areas (93mph).


http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp


 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

It looks serious.


Met Eireann are usually very reserved with warnings.


I was surprised to see a red one.

micahel37
26 December 2013 13:33:10
Looks like Ireland is getting the brunt of the winds tomorrow, with Northern England and the Sottish Borders later on.

For the rest of the mainland the real story will be the rain, I suspect, with widespread flooding issues from the start of the week, it does not look too clever for anyone living on a flood plain.
Polbeth, West Lothian 150m asl
nouska
26 December 2013 13:57:05



Latest fax chart for 06z tomorrow. Looks very nasty for southern Ireland


http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+24.gif


Met Eireann are not messing about and have already issued a red warning for wind in some counties. Warning is effective for 23 hours from 4pm today.


Winds could reach 150kph in exposed coastal areas (93mph).


http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp


 


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 

It looks serious.


Met Eireann are usually very reserved with warnings.


I was surprised to see a red one.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html


Red for all the west today and tomorrow - in the context of Meteoalarm, red is usually reserved for the most severe threat - to see it there for two days is not good in terms of impact on people and property.

AIMSIR
26 December 2013 14:28:53




Latest fax chart for 06z tomorrow. Looks very nasty for southern Ireland


http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+24.gif


Met Eireann are not messing about and have already issued a red warning for wind in some counties. Warning is effective for 23 hours from 4pm today.


Winds could reach 150kph in exposed coastal areas (93mph).


http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp


 


Originally Posted by: nouska 

It looks serious.


Met Eireann are usually very reserved with warnings.


I was surprised to see a red one.


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 


http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html


Red for all the west today and tomorrow - in the context of Meteoalarm, red is usually reserved for the most severe threat - to see it there for two days is not good in terms of impact on people and property.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

It's one to watch for sure.


I've seen a few come and go over the past while, but this one has my ears pricked.

Jive Buddy
26 December 2013 15:33:45

Just back from Dover - power has been restored to most, if not all, of the villages we were called to help. I spoke to one poor resident who's had to throw all her food away, having had no power since Monday.


To think it could all be repeated tomorrow


We're on standby from tonight, to assist with expected flood victims in Canterbury next.


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
The Beast from the East
26 December 2013 16:32:38

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn181.png


 


slightly deeper on GFS


 


UKMO a bit less strong


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122612/UW18-21.GIF?26-16


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jive Buddy
26 December 2013 17:23:31

From Twitter, captioned "Maidstone 2013 Christmas in a photo"


http://t.co/YGnU61Z84R


Sums it up I feel!


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Marigold
26 December 2013 17:30:32


Just back from Dover - power has been restored to most, if not all, of the villages we were called to help. I spoke to one poor resident who's had to throw all her food away, having had no power since Monday.


To think it could all be repeated tomorrow


We're on standby from tonight, to assist with expected flood victims in Canterbury next.


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


You and your colleagues do a great job


Southern Yorkshire Dales











Jive Buddy
26 December 2013 17:38:32



Just back from Dover - power has been restored to most, if not all, of the villages we were called to help. I spoke to one poor resident who's had to throw all her food away, having had no power since Monday.


To think it could all be repeated tomorrow


We're on standby from tonight, to assist with expected flood victims in Canterbury next.


Originally Posted by: Marigold 


You and your colleagues do a great job


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


Thanks young yellow digits , but tbh, it's actually a real pleasure helping people - more so than I realised it would be, when I started this lark. I now get a real buzz out if knowing I've made a difference to someone else's day. The sad times, are when we give help to those that have lost everything. I've had 2 such cases inthe last 7 days alone (house fires). Tomorrow looks like we could be seeing more losing their possessions through flooding (assuming we have no fire calls first!)


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
26 December 2013 18:02:19

Rapid cyclogenesis now taking place with the lastest storm system moving in from the west.
Buoy M6 well to the west of Ireland is reporting a pressure fall of 3.6mb in the hour from 10z to 11z to 980.7mb. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62095&unit=M&tz=STN 
Worth keeping an eye on this in the next few hours and also Buoy K4 west of Northern Ireland which should be very close to the centre of the low between about 0z and 3ztomorrow. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62105 

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 



Pressure at station M6 has fallen 25.4mb in the last 6 hours to 955.3mb at 1700
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