Good morning. Here is the latest report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for the final day of 2013.
All models show a continuing very unsettled period between now and the end of next weekend with details slightly different between the models but all saying the same message of Low pressure over or to the NW of the UK with a strong to gale West or SW flow over all areas. The wet and very windy spell is going to persist through the first week of 2014 with strong winds and heavy rain alternating with brief drier and more showery interludes. Temperatures will remain close to average largely offset for much of the time by the strength of the wind.
GFS then moves into next week showing very little change with the rest of it's run typifed by continuing very strong West winds and further spells of rain with some colder periods over the North with wintry showers at times over the hills. There seems only a small chance of much in the way of anything more than very short dry interludes between the rain bands.
UKMO closes it's run next Monday with an intense depression under 950mbs just off Northern Ireland with gale or severe gale force WSW winds over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain rushing through on the breeze through the day in very average temperatures for early January.
GEM is also reluctant to show anything other than more of the same towards the end of it's run with the chance of a rather colder and less windy period later next week when wintry showers might occur almost anywhere for a time.
NAVGEM too shows frequent Lows crashing across the Atlantic and into the UK bringing repeated bands of wind and rain, heavy at times across all areas in average temperatures.
ECM today shows a slight change towards the middle of next week with a pause in the Atlantic bandwagon allowing for a quieter couple of days with a few wintry showers in colder air before I'm afraid the next system over the NW Atlantic regains supremacy with fronts crossing East over the UK by the end of the week returning wind and rain to all areas as well as returning temperatures to average values.
The GFS Ensembles paint all too familiar a picture again this morning with an Atlantic bias throughout carrying forward the very unsettled, wet and often windy period to which we have become accustomed right out to the far end when there are quite a few members showing an Anticyclonic end to the run biased towards the South of the UK.
The Jet Stream remains very strong crashing over the Atlantic and into the UK or Northern France for the next week to 10 days before the High pressure based bias in the ensembles pushes the flow further North across towards Iceland at the end of the run.
In Summary it seems my innitial encouraging thoughts towards a break in the pattern to something more wintry last night was a tad premature as any such thoughts from this morning's output have been largely dwarfed or removed as the seemingly immovable train of Atlantic weather systems remain. There does seem some indication of a slow down of intensity of the wet and windy period later in the outputs as High pressure does show more of a hand but not necessarily in the right place for cold weather to become established.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset