theweatheroutlook

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Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 December 2013 13:09:06
Mild and often wet and windy for some considerable time to come as things currently stand.

Usual rules apply.

Happy New Year all. 😄
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
nickl
31 December 2013 13:25:05

i suspect you meant the opposite of what you wrote martyn !!!


definitive signs now that winter will arrive some time in january.  whether it is before mid month or we have to wait until the final third is now the question.


 

Gooner
31 December 2013 13:31:53

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


ENS that the guys are talking about

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
31 December 2013 13:42:23

As mentioned in the last thread it's quite rare to see a blob of 510dam air out in the western approaches, at a lower latitude than the UK! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn783.png


All of that cold air pouring out of North America must be cooling the Atlantic down quite a bit.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
polarwind
31 December 2013 13:52:57


As mentioned in the last thread it's quite rare to see a blob of 510dam air out in the western approaches, at a lower latitude than the UK! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn783.png


All of that cold air pouring out of North America must be cooling the Atlantic down quite a bit.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think it was about 1972 that a long period of very cold winds in the same area cooled the ocean such that the southern ice boundary expanded so that it essentially was in a straight line from Newfoundland to the southern tip of Greenland.


Can't remember anything like it since, but, I've not been really watching.


 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Sevendust
31 December 2013 15:19:14

I would point out that apart from a north-easterly outbreak at the end of January 1972 it was a poor winter for cold.


The cooling of the North Atlantic, which is tempered year round by the NAD, has liitle direct impact on our weather apart from keeping any fast direct feed from west a bit cooler than would other wise be expected - indeed it is just evidence of how cold Canada is.


If it promotes a radical change of synoptics away from zonal then thats fine but I'm not sure it helps that much?


 

some faraway beach
31 December 2013 15:31:19


I would point out that apart from a north-easterly outbreak at the end of January 1972 it was a poor winter for cold.


The cooling of the North Atlantic, which is tempered year round by the NAD, has liitle direct impact on our weather apart from keeping any fast direct feed from west a bit cooler than would other wise be expected - indeed it is just evidence of how cold Canada is.


If it promotes a radical change of synoptics away from zonal then thats fine but I'm not sure it helps that much?


 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Shouldn't the cooling of the North Atlantic result in less fuel for our current run of storms? For that reason alone, I'd imagine they should soon lose strength, enabling different synoptics to take their place. 


Happy to be put right on this though.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Sevendust
31 December 2013 15:38:57



I would point out that apart from a north-easterly outbreak at the end of January 1972 it was a poor winter for cold.


The cooling of the North Atlantic, which is tempered year round by the NAD, has liitle direct impact on our weather apart from keeping any fast direct feed from west a bit cooler than would other wise be expected - indeed it is just evidence of how cold Canada is.


If it promotes a radical change of synoptics away from zonal then thats fine but I'm not sure it helps that much?


 


Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Shouldn't the cooling of the North Atlantic result in less fuel for our current run of storms? For that reason alone, I'd imagine they should soon lose strength, enabling different synoptics to take their place. 


Happy to be put right on this though.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Its obviously more complex than that but the theory that the contrast between Eastern Seaboard temps and the Atlantic promotes cyclogenesis is reasonable to a point. The key here is contrast not the ambient temperature of the NA.


 

some faraway beach
31 December 2013 15:44:40




I would point out that apart from a north-easterly outbreak at the end of January 1972 it was a poor winter for cold.


The cooling of the North Atlantic, which is tempered year round by the NAD, has liitle direct impact on our weather apart from keeping any fast direct feed from west a bit cooler than would other wise be expected - indeed it is just evidence of how cold Canada is.


If it promotes a radical change of synoptics away from zonal then thats fine but I'm not sure it helps that much?


 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Shouldn't the cooling of the North Atlantic result in less fuel for our current run of storms? For that reason alone, I'd imagine they should soon lose strength, enabling different synoptics to take their place. 


Happy to be put right on this though.


Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Its obviously more complex than that but the theory that the contrast between Eastern Seaboard temps and the Atlantic promotes cyclogenesis is reasonable to a point. The key here is contrast not the ambient temperature of the NA.


 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Fair enough. With temps off Newfoundland so anomalously low right now, I see why cooling of the temps further out into the Atlantic isn't enough to reduce the contrast sufficiently to prevent these storms. I guess the occasional ensemble members which do keep signalling a pattern change at 10+ days out, but never nearer, are runs where this temperature difference has indeed fallen enough to slow down storm formation.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
polarwind
31 December 2013 16:02:57


I would point out that apart from a north-easterly outbreak at the end of January 1972 it was a poor winter for cold.


The cooling of the North Atlantic, which is tempered year round by the NAD, has liitle direct impact on our weather apart from keeping any fast direct feed from west a bit cooler than would other wise be expected - indeed it is just evidence of how cold Canada is.


If it promotes a radical change of synoptics away from zonal then thats fine but I'm not sure it helps that much?


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Yes, it was. I was disappointed and It was about this time that circulation patterns (to me) started to be different from a long run of previous winters. It was also the time or perhaps a little later that some scientists acknowledged this fact.


It was more a case of "summats up" - what's happening? - and being obvious by 1974.


Global warming became the reason. 


But, as you know its only a part of the answer as far as I still see things.


The point to remember here is that recently the circulation patterns have to some degree  reverted to what we saw before 1972. In the 70's and early 80's the patterns were sometimes unbelievable.


Will this scenario continue? Will the fact that the jet is more west-east orientated presently than the SW - NE predominent circulation of most of the time these last three decades, have consequences to short term forecasting?


IMO, don't expect outcomes based on the recent decades.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Gavin P
31 December 2013 16:09:45

Hi all,


Here's the final video update of 2013;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Just an 8-10 day look ahead - Hint: It's staying very unsettled, LOL!


Can I thank you all for your support of the website and the videos during 2013. Special thanks to Brian and the mods for allowing me to post my updates in the threads.


Happy New Year.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
llamedos
31 December 2013 16:14:27


Hi all,


Here's the final video update of 2013;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Just an 8-10 day look ahead - Hint: It's staying very unsettled, LOL!


Can I thank you all for your support of the website and the videos during 2013. Special thanks to Brian and the mods for allowing me to post my updates in the threads.


Happy New Year.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Top stuff this year Gavin.......a huge amount of work greatly appreciated by so many of us

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Gooner
31 December 2013 16:17:38



Hi all,


Here's the final video update of 2013;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Just an 8-10 day look ahead - Hint: It's staying very unsettled, LOL!


Can I thank you all for your support of the website and the videos during 2013. Special thanks to Brian and the mods for allowing me to post my updates in the threads.


Happy New Year.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 

Top stuff this year Gavin.......a huge amount of work greatly appreciated by so many of us


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Agreed

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
31 December 2013 16:24:40

Thanks all.


 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Sevendust
31 December 2013 16:27:58




Hi all,


Here's the final video update of 2013;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Just an 8-10 day look ahead - Hint: It's staying very unsettled, LOL!


Can I thank you all for your support of the website and the videos during 2013. Special thanks to Brian and the mods for allowing me to post my updates in the threads.


Happy New Year.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Top stuff this year Gavin.......a huge amount of work greatly appreciated by so many of us


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Agreed


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Scandy 1050 MB
31 December 2013 16:35:24




Hi all,


Here's the final video update of 2013;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Just an 8-10 day look ahead - Hint: It's staying very unsettled, LOL!


Can I thank you all for your support of the website and the videos during 2013. Special thanks to Brian and the mods for allowing me to post my updates in the threads.


Happy New Year.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Top stuff this year Gavin.......a huge amount of work greatly appreciated by so many of us


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Agreed


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Yes thanks Gavin, very much enjoyed all of them and especially liked the SSW one recently - a ray of hope in a mild, windy and wet gloom!  Happy new year.

Polar Low
31 December 2013 16:44:46

Same here Gav thanks very much and a very happy and safe new year, loved your dec 1981 just great






Hi all,


Here's the final video update of 2013;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Just an 8-10 day look ahead - Hint: It's staying very unsettled, LOL!


Can I thank you all for your support of the website and the videos during 2013. Special thanks to Brian and the mods for allowing me to post my updates in the threads.


Happy New Year.


Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

Top stuff this year Gavin.......a huge amount of work greatly appreciated by so many of us


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Agreed


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Yes thanks Gavin, very much enjoyed all of them and especially liked the SSW one recently - a ray of hope in a mild, windy and wet gloom!  Happy new year.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Gooner
31 December 2013 16:49:53

12z Op doesn't even give us a hint of anything , lets see what the ENS give us

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
31 December 2013 17:15:26
TENT-ATIVE Signs from 12z GFS as it is updating right at the Minute that by Friday 10th Jan. To Sunday 12 Jan. and Beyond- is the Cold and NNW or NW blast of winds and Weather of the Winter characteristics on the offers list, hey GFS, it will be Mild and Wet a couple of days before you bring this System in, and the Former Sunday to Thursday period you are forecasting Modelling for the UK a Mild Period and the somewhat briefly colder and showery period before the three to five day 10th Jan. onwards of much colder and wintry weather thank God for that.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Whether Idle
31 December 2013 17:24:39

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0


Pretty much sums it up - windy mildish and wet as far as the eye can reliably see.  The aquifers do need recharging

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
31 December 2013 17:28:43
Good Video Gavin, I watched it and everything talked in there, I check these various outputs as well.

Good Character.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
JACKO4EVER
31 December 2013 17:33:54
Cheers Gav! Excellent again, looks like a very wet period coming up and by the looks of the latest 12z Op quite mild too!
Happy New Year folks!
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
31 December 2013 17:39:21
Hmm, not too jaw dropping GFS 12z by 10th and the following 48 hours- less Storm of Low Pressure, a bit wavy uninspiring and Greener Output charts- less dark blues at both 500 hPa and t850hPa - the Cold air being sent SE from Greenland and Canada Newfoundland and N Atlantic to cross UK- 10th to 12th January 2014- a downgrade from the 06z GFS oh dear.

This is being wasted and washed away out by the green colours- less blue will not be very wintry just a bit.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Osprey
31 December 2013 17:52:25


Hi all,


Here's the final video update of 2013;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Just an 8-10 day look ahead - Hint: It's staying very unsettled, LOL!


Can I thank you all for your support of the website and the videos during 2013. Special thanks to Brian and the mods for allowing me to post my updates in the threads.


Happy New Year.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Thank you Gavin


Best wishes

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
sriram
31 December 2013 17:58:20


Hi all,


Here's the final video update of 2013;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Just an 8-10 day look ahead - Hint: It's staying very unsettled, LOL!


Can I thank you all for your support of the website and the videos during 2013. Special thanks to Brian and the mods for allowing me to post my updates in the threads.


Happy New Year.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


 


Thanks Gavin


 


May I take this opportunity to thank you for all your videos this year which are much appreciated, and to wish you and your family a happy and successful New Year of 2014


Best Wishes


Sriram



 


 

Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
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