This WSW regime seems to be the ultimate setup for showers here - once again it's been chucking it down on and off ever since darkness fell.
Shame there's no thunder this time - in fact no flashes at all as the unpredictable rain cancels many firework plans.
Another line of organised convection is about to move through, followed by yet another from the west, after which a larger mass of rain looks to come along - possibly consisting of two convective lines merged together. There's popcorn convection behind that, but looking at the Met Office projections it appears that only the strongest of those will survive long enough to reach here.
Looking further ahead, there looks be a further load of showers behind the rapidly moving frontal system tomorrow night, many of them becoming organised again.
It's these showers that the models struggle to predict, and which lead to event totals higher than the model projections in some places... but it does tend to be sporadic, with other places falling short instead... across a given river catchment it probably averages out not far from the model projections of NAE and WRF. Not sure about GFS.
Of course, standing water and streams can respond sharply to a string of successive downpours, as is very much in evidence around here these days!
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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On