theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

squish
01 January 2014 18:24:15
12z GEM was quite interesting

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014010112/gemnh-0-240.png?12 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Nordic Snowman
01 January 2014 18:36:31

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


Nothing too exciting there.


A safe bet to call the 1st half of January a very unsettled one. I can't see the unsettled weather persisting for the entire month as that would be quite a seldom affair and so the next question is how the drier and more settled weather will develop? My hunch for any big freeze is fast dwindling and I wouldn't bet against a colder mid month before the W'ly type returns. It just seems like a real old fashioned 90s autumn winter to me.

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Gooner
01 January 2014 18:42:35

12z GEM was quite interesting Originally Posted by: squish 

">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014010112/gemnh-0-240.png?12


Indeed , not a bad chrt at all

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


glenogle
01 January 2014 18:43:31

You should probably delete this thread and stick your post in the Model Output Discussion thread,  Might get a reply.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
squish
01 January 2014 18:43:37
GEM/ECM and JMA all quite consistent at +144/168

Major arctic/Russian high ridging SW towards Greenland, next v.vigorous low from the U.states moving up North well west of greenland and a brief window for a potential pattern change as Mondays intense N.Atlantic low winds down to the NW of Scotland......
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gooner
01 January 2014 18:43:40

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-192.GIF?01-0


LP looks set to bomb across from the NW

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


squish
01 January 2014 18:45:42
squish
01 January 2014 18:48:23


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-192.GIF?01-0


LP looks set to bomb across from the NW


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


The window for a pattern change is very small, as the jet stream is very strong this winter....

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gooner
01 January 2014 18:50:40

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-216.GIF?01-0


HP sits over us at 216

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


squish
01 January 2014 18:52:51
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif 

Dry and real potential...
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
some faraway beach
01 January 2014 18:53:47

T+144h looks to be the critical point. GEM builds a ridge off the eastern coast of N America, which finally stops the next Canadian low pressure system entering the Atlantic:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1


The result is a calm chart for the UK in 10 days' time, with anything possible;


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1


GFS fails to build that ridge strong enough:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1


... resulting in more wind and rain in 10 days' time:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1


The UKMO looks a bit less wholehearted about that ridge off Canada than GEM:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021


ECM also not as committed as GEM (no surface high over Greenland at T+144h), but at least there's something there to halt the Atlantic before it gets going, so, like GEM, there should be something interesting for the UK in 10 days' time:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Quantum
01 January 2014 18:55:42

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-384.png?0


NAFES esembles 17th jan


The pattern is unusually well defined so I guess confidence would be higher than usual - very little change. This run has UK LP dominated at the end. Feed will either be maritime tropical or returning polar maritime which corresponds to average or mild conditions generally and ofc unsettled!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
01 January 2014 18:57:15

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-240.GIF?01-0


Ends with HP over us ....as Darren said might happen, could eventually drag some cold air over us


Consistent at least

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chiltern Blizzard
01 January 2014 19:09:04

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-240.GIF?01-0 
Ends with HP over us ....as Darren said might happen, could eventually drag some cold air over us
Consistent at least

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Lots of cold air around both east and west... Besides, a high pressure over us with sub-zero 850s would result in it being pretty cold at the surface.
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
glenogle
01 January 2014 19:12:53


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-192.GIF?01-0


LP looks set to bomb across from the NW


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Looks like one of those 47 charts gavin used 

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
White Meadows
01 January 2014 19:34:40


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-192.GIF?01-0 
LP looks set to bomb across from the NW

Originally Posted by: glenogle 


Looks like one of those 47 charts gavin usedUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Looks totally different to me!
GlenH
01 January 2014 19:49:38


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-216.GIF?01-0


HP sits over us at 216


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


GEM has a similar low that goes east from there.

Chiltern Blizzard
01 January 2014 19:51:18


http://weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1930965&tid=1930902  sorry, no caps shift as right hand in plaster.

Originally Posted by: nouska 

Very useful charts thanks. 06z op really was a massive outlier!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Well knock me down with a featherUserPostedImage


the problem this time round is that there isn't any of the usual consistency in the modelling - the last 3 years were fairly smooth in progressing the warming through the timeline. the Asian warming shown two weeks ago has now verified for example.
the 12Z GFS has the warming where the ECM showed it a couple of days ago - http://i.imgur.com/Dt2WdEw.gif 
the run from yesterday http://i.imgur.com/W5w0aQo.gif 
this volatility between runs and models may continue for a while as that is one mighty cold vortex to deal with.



The volatility in the strat modelling isn't something I can recall happening previously - unprecedented even in recent times perhaps - and appears to signal a very high degree of uncertainty in how our weather will develop later this month - an uncertainty that is perhaps yet reflected to its true extent in the current tropospheric modelling.

My thoughts are therefore that whereas on one hand we shouldn't expect a major pattern change, on the other we shouldn't surprised if something dramatically different does develop. We can neither write-off January for cold, nor expect that a pattern change is imminent... Frustrating for the forecaster, but that's just how it is.

Andrew
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Hungry Tiger
01 January 2014 19:55:34


You should probably delete this thread and stick your post in the Model Output Discussion thread,  Might get a reply.


Originally Posted by: glenogle 


Done and moved to official MO thread.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Chiltern Blizzard
01 January 2014 20:02:45

Can I dispell the myth that once zonality is set in, it is hard to shift? It depends on whether the conditions will allow it to shift. Zonality will last as long as those conditions that favour it last. Sometimes, it is just a week, sometimes it could be nearly 3 months ala autumn 2000.

If you know how long zonality will last then you can tell me how long a piece of string is.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



Excellent post - fully agree.

It's all too easy (and I include myself in this) to underestimate the uncertainty in models where they are consistently showing a particular weather pattern at a 10-14 day range. It can feel locked-in, when in reality, it's far from it.

Andrew
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
David M Porter
01 January 2014 20:03:56
http://weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1930965&tid=1930902  sorry, no caps shift as right hand in plaster.

Very useful charts thanks. 06z op really was a massive outlier!

Well knock me down with a featherUserPostedImage

the problem this time round is that there isn't any of the usual consistency in the modelling - the last 3 years were fairly smooth in progressing the warming through the timeline. the Asian warming shown two weeks ago has now verified for example. the 12Z GFS has the warming where the ECM showed it a couple of days ago - http://i.imgur.com/Dt2WdEw.gif  the run from yesterday http://i.imgur.com/W5w0aQo.gif  this volatility between runs and models may continue for a while as that is one mighty cold vortex to deal with.

The volatility in the strat modelling isn't something I can recall happening previously - unprecedented even in recent times perhaps - and appears to signal a very high degree of uncertainty in how our weather will develop later this month - an uncertainty that is perhaps yet reflected to its true extent in the current tropospheric modelling. My thoughts are therefore that whereas on one hand we shouldn't expect a major pattern change, on the other we shouldn't surprised if something dramatically different does develop. We can neither write-off January for cold, nor expect that a pattern change is imminent... Frustrating for the forecaster, but that's just how it is. Andrew


Going by the Met Office medium range outlooks from over the past week or so, that is how they seem to be reading it as well. They have since the end of last week been talking about colder weather later in January than we have seen thus far, so we'll have to wait and see whether they maintain this line of thinking in the coming days. As far as the models go, I think last night's ECM 12z was the first to show HP returning towards the end of next week, so that's three ECM runs in a row that have shown pressure rising to some extent over the UK. GFS seems to want to keep it unsettled though.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
01 January 2014 20:08:54

Can I dispell the myth that once zonality is set in, it is hard to shift? It depends on whether the conditions will allow it to shift. Zonality will last as long as those conditions that favour it last. Sometimes, it is just a week, sometimes it could be nearly 3 months ala autumn 2000. If you know how long zonality will last then you can tell me how long a piece of string is.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Excellent post - fully agree. It's all too easy (and I include myself in this) to underestimate the uncertainty in models where they are consistently showing a particular weather pattern at a 10-14 day range. It can feel locked-in, when in reality, it's far from it. Andrew

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 




I wonder if a stormy spell can sow the seeds of its own demise by dissipating energy.


The North Atlantic has cooled a lot as a result of the stream of depressions presumably.

North York Moors weather 
Gooner
01 January 2014 20:19:14

Can I dispell the myth that once zonality is set in, it is hard to shift? It depends on whether the conditions will allow it to shift. Zonality will last as long as those conditions that favour it last. Sometimes, it is just a week, sometimes it could be nearly 3 months ala autumn 2000. If you know how long zonality will last then you can tell me how long a piece of string is.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Excellent post - fully agree. It's all too easy (and I include myself in this) to underestimate the uncertainty in models where they are consistently showing a particular weather pattern at a 10-14 day range. It can feel locked-in, when in reality, it's far from it. Andrew

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Kev is of course correct, and lets remember we have only had zonal conditions for 3 weeks

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chiltern Blizzard
01 January 2014 20:20:43

Can I dispell the myth that once zonality is set in, it is hard to shift? It depends on whether the conditions will allow it to shift. Zonality will last as long as those conditions that favour it last. Sometimes, it is just a week, sometimes it could be nearly 3 months ala autumn 2000. If you know how long zonality will last then you can tell me how long a piece of string is.

Originally Posted by: four 

Excellent post - fully agree. It's all too easy (and I include myself in this) to underestimate the uncertainty in models where they are consistently showing a particular weather pattern at a 10-14 day range. It can feel locked-in, when in reality, it's far from it. Andrew

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 




I wonder if a stormy spell can sow the seeds of its own demise by dissipating energy.
The North Atlantic has cooled a lot as a result of the stream of depressions presumably.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



The impact of ocean cooling caused by strong winter storms developing off the eastern seaboard would be an important factor in the longevity of a zonal spell, but only one amongst a host of other inter-related factors. Any pattern change will result from the net impact and interplay of all atmospheric factors rather than being 'caused' by x,y or z.
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
01 January 2014 21:04:40
how can watching the period t168 to t192 become the better time to find success in finding the GFS, UKMO and the ECMWF to run into common agreement, as it does not want to bugger out of the way- I suppose at t168 and t192 we are often just clutching at straws what with the period to t144 always tied in GFS UKMO and ECMWF Unity.

So it is in FI don't trust this unless the period before it falls under favoured PFJ Low P - disrupt it.

always a dream eh.
While we sit there watching them show us the Vortex's and Trofs Zooming across the UK.

Have a good night all.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Users browsing this topic

    Remove ads from site

    Ads