http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

ECM at day 10 showing raging zonality.

GEM shows undercutting:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

GFS showing zonality albeit the Azores has some influence.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

Yes a backward step this morning including less warming regards the SSW event, however to be expected at this range. Let's see what the next two sets of runs bring.

Morning all.

Huge uncertainty between models- though I am not surprised. What is evident, however, is that there has been a fairly large step backwards if its cold your looking for. I smell a problem for the Stratospheric Warming event, though only time will tell. In the meantime lots of wind and rain to come.

To the contrary, I think even GFS wants to bring the high post mid January. I think the odds are shifting towards a more settled and seasonal outlook. Cannot a make a call just based on one run but I think days of wind and mild much are numbered.

It's already started, so it won't suddenly stop now! What effect it has, of course, is still very much to be decided.

In the meantime the ECM ensembles show slightly fewer blocked / high pressure solutions but even so it still looks like a pattern change is on the way. As before, that doesn't necessarily mean a cold pattern, merely a drier, less windy one.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/2mfbtjb.jpg

Good morning everyone. Here is today's review of the 12 midnight outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 2nd 2014.

All models continue to show the UK weather driven by a strong Jet flow across the Atlantic towards the Southern UK. Within this flow large depressions are shown to move up towards NW Britain with strong to gale SW winds and periods of rain running through on active troughs followed by periods of sunshine and squally showers. This process occurs through tonight and tomorrow and again on Sunday and Monday with just brief drier interludes in between principally today and again later on Saturday. Early next week then shows a large Low close to NW Britain filling steadily but maintaining rather showery conditions across the UK but with decreasing winds and temperatures a little lower, especially by night in the more sheltered East.

GFS then shows the midweek period with a continuing SW feed under rising pressure and further showers before a longer spell of rain associated with new troughs pushes East across the UK late in the week. This is followed by drier weather moving across from the West under a brief anticyclone close to SE England for a time next weekend. The pattern remains changeable however and it isn't long before further Atlantic fronts and Low pressure threaten the dry period with further rain at least for a time late in the run.

The GFS Ensembles maintain next to no chance of major cold over UK shores within the two week spell keeping temperatures very close to average with rain at times throughout the run though amounts may well reduce from the amounts experienced of late, at least for a time.

UKMO today shows filling Low pressure up to the NW later next week with SW winds decreasing and a broad trough just to the West. As a result further sunshine and showery type weather looks likely in average temperatures or a little above and with some Eastern areas becoming largely dry.

GEM keeps very unsettled weather going throughout it's later stages as further Low pressure forms to the SW and later West with rain and showers continuing for all areas at times with temperatures close to average.

NAVGEM shows gently rising pressure through next week but doesn't eradicate the risk of rain at times anywhere although the North will see the majority of it later next week as pressure rises enough over the South to give at least some dry and bright weather at times. Temperatures would stay close to average but slight ground frost at night could be possible in the South under light winds and clearing night time skies.

ECM without the earlier support of it's ensembles has dropped it's High pressure phase later next week as it now shows a continuation of Low pressure being fed in off the Atlantic from the West to maintain frequent areas of rain and showers across all areas in strong winds at times and fairly standard and average January temperatures.

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a bias of pressure being High to the South and Low to the North-West near Iceland. The resultant Westerly flow indicates the weather is likely to remain somewhat unsettled and probably rather mild in the South with closer proximity to higher pressure to the South than recently.

ECM 10 Day Mean Chart

The GFS Jet Forecast continues to blow strongly East over the Atlantic close to Southern Britain before it shows less clear signals later but with a bias to maintain a course similar to currently but less strong than of late particularly at the European end.

In Summary today there seems little to indicate anything other than a continuation of the Atlantic based weather pattern. It looks certain that after the early week storm that some lessening in the depth of unsettledness and strength of depressions flowing in from the West will lead to less gales and heavy rain but will nevertheless keep things generally changeable with some rain at times. With High pressure looking possible to creep in close to the South at times the feed of air from the West or SW could become rather mild at times in the South later. There remains little concrete evidence in this morning's output of any risk of severe cold, ice or snow anywhere in the UK anytime soon.

It is looking increasingly likely that winter will only start towards the end of the month, perhaps with the help of the SSW.

In the meantime, hopefully it will dry up a bit. Would be nice to see some frosts as well

GFS has moved to the ECM solution regarding a powerful storm across the Central U.S. in 5-6 days time. That event acts to shift  the region of storm development to the west, with troughs peaking close to the East Coast rather than more towards the UK.

Slowly but surely, this is reflected in high pressure ridging across the UK. This is not a bad thing to have when blocking highs are developing in the Arctic, as it means we have more chance of supressing the trough energy with blocking and sending it sliding.

As ECM in particular makes clear, it will take time for the trough energy near to the UK to subside enough to produce promising charts for a cold incursion. In the mean time, the trough positioning will tend to promote an Atlantic flow without much cold air reaching us.

I'll be keeping an eye out for corrections south in the trough positioning, as that's not uncommon when there's blocking being developed in the Arctic.

That's what we need more than anything right now- a drier spell. Much as many here may want to see some snow, that in itself would only cause further complications for those affected by flooding caused by the recent very wet weather. In many ways, we're in the same position we were in at the end of 2012/ start of 2013.

Only problem for the strat event is that there are two teams(wave 1 and 2), one playing push and the other playing shove. The teams keep changing position (location) and numbers (temp) but are unable to make much headway other than to move the vortex back and forth. Last year the teams joined forces and job done in no time at all. These guys need to get together or add more members to each team (to get a split) - we could be at this stage for a while.

Still looking Atlantic dominated throughout the output today.

Less in the way of strong winds but still a fair amount of rain.

Pattern change I think not!

Really? I don't think so.

There are still signs of a pattern change coming in my view. I'll be amazed if, by the 9th, we're not looking at a different type of outlook from the stormy, rain-drenched spell we're having at the moment.

I'm not convinced at this stage Darren.

Past mid month who knows.

With a NAEFS output like this

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-384.png?0

I would be amazed if there is any pattern change before mid month

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-3-1-384.png?0

Even the lowest 10% of the 850 temps predicted struggle to get the -5C into england.