Good evening folks. Here is the evening report on the 12 midday outputs of the NWP for today Thursday January 2014.
All models continue to show a new major storm winding up towards the NW of Britain later tonight and tomorrow with a short spell of rain this evening and tonight giving way to showery and very windy weather tomorrow with gales and severe gales in places. Through Saturday further showers look likely as winds remain SW or West and strong though a drier spell is possible before all models show a new surge of Atlantic energy with wet and windy weather on Sunday before returning all areas to showers and blustery SW winds early next week.
GFS then shows Low pressure to the North filling midweek with a lessening in wind and showers for a time. However a further spell of rain looks likely later next week as further Low pressure moves over from the West before High pressure moving up from the SW by next weekend then gives a period of quiet anticyclonic weather with frost and fog problems night and morning and cold bright days.
The GFS Ensembles show that the operational was a colder outlier later in the run with most members supporting a change onto drier and brighter conditions at times through Week 2 but with higher temperatures hinting at High pressure being just to the South or SE of the UK.
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/
UKMO closes it's run next Wednesday showing sunshine and showers with rather lighter SW winds in association with filling Low pressure to the North and rising pressure to the SE and the mid Atlantic.
GEM again tonight keeps things very unsettled throughout it's run maintaining the Atlantic progression of rain bearing troughs though the gales of late should of become less marked than of late. Temperatures look like remaining near average.
NAVGEM also keeps a West or SW feed going later next week though much lighter than of late. There would be continue to be rain at times for all should tonight's charts verify with temperatures close to normal.
ECM also shows maintained unsettled weather as a Westerly flow from the Atlantic is maintained with rain and showers at times. Despite higher pressure values than of late the weather in terms of rainfall will continue to be poor and hardly requisite for flooding levels to fall but at least the wind will be less of a feature as will the temperature values.
The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues it's theme of recent runs with Low pressure most likely towards the NW of Britain near Iceland and High pressure remaining to the South with a SW flow across the UK with the risk of rain remaining for many. This bias indicates relatively few members offer much in the way of reliable relief from wind and rain let alone cold and snow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow pumping quickly across the Atlantic and over the British Isles for the next week or so. Then in line with it's rises of pressure the pattern becomes much more diffuse and unclear with no clear cut signal apparent.
In Summary the weather pattern remains largely disturbed tonight. GFS does offer some better weather and High pressure in it's operational and ensembles but the other models bring any rise of pressure too far to the South to prevent rain areas to continue to affect all areas at times in the persistent Westerly breeze which hold temperatures close to average at least for all areas.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset