Well this is a MO discussion, the only settled weather that is showing up is the bad sort.

It seems unusually consistent to me.

EPS: Dire

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010212/EDH101-240.GIF?02-0

GEFS: Dire

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-240.png?12

GEMS: Dire

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gensnh-0-1-240.png

NAEFS: Dire

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?12

NOGAPSS: Dire

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/nogaps/run/gens-21-1-240.png

Then a disussion about the whole of Jan should be binned

But at the moment you are correct ............ up to the 17th it is unsettled and then we haave an HP over us

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010212/gfs-0-384.png?12

I know the long range models get alot of flak, but the CFS doomsday scenario seems to be playing out pretty well atm. Also that 2 week NAEFS mean is unusually prescise with a very small spread of temps over the UK. Same for the GEFS. I would say there is a possibility we might go to settled weather by mid january, but everything points to azors build; which could turn out to be even milder. 

I may be wrong here, but didn't the Azores High play at least a small part in ending the zonal rut we found ourselves in at the end of 2012 & start of 2013 and then help to set us up for the colder spell that came later? I recall that it did turn drier where I live from about the 8th of January last year, and gradually colder as time went on.

Then at the moment that is in disagreement with the text updates from the Met...............interesting

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Jan 2014 to Friday 31 Jan 2014:

Current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through mid-January. Some signals are emerging suggesting that the weather may undergo a change later this month allowing colder conditions to then become increasingly likely. This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January. A change to a colder weather type would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Issued at: 1600 on Thu 2 Jan 2014

My point about it being an MO discussion rather than media. The fact the metoffice are refering to settled and cold weather rather than unsetteld and cold perhaps indicates euro style faux cold blocking, UK blocking or even northern blocking if you read between the lines. But I really can't see it, myself on the models; I would guess that some of the more exclusive ones are showing something rather different to the 'plebs'. But who knows, we don't have acsess to these VIP models like the full ECM, MOGREPS, full UKMO e.c.t.; I can only comment on what I have. 

The consistancy is still high at 16 day, I chose 10 day because that was the maximun range of some of the ensembles. Only GEFS and NAEFS go to 16 days; both of which are showing either rpm or tm airmasses. Run to run consistency has also been excellent. One thing that I particulary find stagering is how high the absolute value of the anomolies are at day 16. Usually you would see very pale colours and an almost homogenous environment by day 16 on the NAEFES, however there are still +-20hpa anomolies quite widely in NH which implies higher confidence than usual. The EPS have lower confidence and a greater spread admitadely although its worth noting the NAEFS takes the ECM into account. 

Unbelievably the NAVGEM and GFS are still fighting to the death over the temp of the stratosphere, with less than 100 hours to go now one model is going to end up very red faced....

That arctic high really is becoming a semi perminant feature and is even offering some rather pathetic resistance. I'd say if it wasn't for that deep cold over canada we would have already had a week or so of northern blocking and face more to come. If the high can become more of an upper level feature and maintain itself (this will be really helped by any strat warming effects) then we could be looking at a very respectable cold spell at the end of the month or february. 

At least the FFS is showing some semblance of a battleground, although the Atlantic (if less angry) wins out in the end.

Well the GFS pub run is in serious of being rather interesting . . . .

Using the if word any sceanrio is possible.

As it happens the 18z is an object lesson in how feeble attempts at northern blocking are readily obliterated by a rampant jet.

See how this:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

soon becomes this:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0

then this:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

This really has taken the wind out of my sails. We have WAA coming into canada, a monster siberian high and rather dramatic cyclosis in the atlantic. I'm betting an outlier. 

Looks Zonal for the UK

Its transitioning between zonal and blocked. The overall NH pattern is very good. I can't quite believe this run though, given it is a polar opposite to every run preceeding it. Most likely scenario imo is that this run is drunk and tommorow morning it will be back to buisness as usual.