Good morning everyone. Here is my website report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 3rd 2013. Transcript lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm.

All models continue to show a powerful storm system close to NW Britain with a windy SW flow with showers across inland UK and severe gales at the coast and a risk of coastal flooding especially in the SW. This pattern continues well into tomorrow before a slow cessation of wind strength is shown but further troughs moving up from the SW tomorrow could enhance rainfall once more with snow possible over Northern hills. On Sunday a brief window of better weather early will evaporate as all models show yet another storm system out to the NW to start next week with renewed severe gales and heavy rain later on Sunday transferring into showers through the start of next week with winds decreasing steadily with time.

GFS then shows showers continuing in lighter winds midweek before a drier interlude gets displaced by troughs of low pressure advancing East slowly across the UK with further rain. This sets the tome for a further spell of changeable and sometimes wet period though severe gales are less likely. It could well turn rather colder too with snow becoming a factor across the North at times as winds turn more ESE here with a Jet stream which ends up to the South of the UK.

The GFS Ensembles look very ordinary though with little evidence of significant cold in our corner of the world. With rain events scattered about throughout the period the likely trend is for a continuation of Atlantic driven weather though effects from excess wind and rain could lessen with time with some members offering some quieter anticyclonic interludes with some frost.

UKMO today shows the period following midweek next week as one of sunshine and showers as Low pressure fills close to the North at the same time as receding away East. Pressure is reluctant to rise significantly over the UK though and it looks only a matter of time before the next Atlantic fronts exiting the West Atlantic make landfall towards the UK by the weekend.

GEM today shows Low pressure gradually moving away East out of the UK from midweek taking a lot of the showery rain with it. A quieter colder period is then shown with a frost risk before the Atlantic brings further troughs into the UK from the West by and over next weekend with further rain at times.

NAVGEM today shows the best chance of seeing somewhat drier conditions across the South at least later next week as it builds High pressure close to the South and SE with dry and possibly milder air pulled NE. However, it also shows a straddling trough caught up under this higher pressure which if verified would bring further rain which extends to most areas again soon after term of the run as the Atlantic feeds another trough East.

ECM continues to look very unsettled with fronts and depression feeding in from the West right up to the end of the UK. There could be a few longer drier phases than of late when it could be rather colder later next week and it will generally be certain to be less windy but any sustained dry weather looks likely to be a scarce commodity with a Low pressure belt again to the North in 10 days time.

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues to show quite a flat bias in the pattern with Low pressure over Iceland and High pressure to the South. This shows that the bias of members lies with a continuation of a zonal pattern with winds preferring a Westerly aspect with rain at times for all areas in temperatures that never look particularly cold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream flow blows for another 5 days or so under it's current shape and form before a disruption looks likely for a time later next week. It is short-lived though and seems to reset to a West to East flow close to the UK again late in the period.

In Summary there seems unlikely to be relied upon settled weather over the next few weeks over the UK. Changes in the pattern are trying to occur later next week when pressure rises to the North somewhat but the problem appears that pressure to the South is too high and with an over riding Jet around this the pattern quickly resets to a zonal one once more later in the output. So although there is a window of better and colder weather likely soon after midweek it looks unlikely to move us out of the unsettled spell with further rain at times from the West then taking hold once more. Temperatures for the most part will not be bad considering it's January but it is likely to become somewhat less mild than of late with some snowfall at times possible over Northern high ground. with time.

seems a case of the op and control trying to lead the way to the new pattern, with little support from the ens. Often the way when blocking is concerned

The models are showing a tendency for heights to be generally higher around the Iceland/Greenland area than we've seen for a long time now. This persists even with the massive number of shortwaves on the 00z ECM op run.

GFS is suggesting that the region of higher heights gradually gains influence over the UK during the coming fortnight, as the PV energy winds down and energy becomes more willing to head down into Europe.

The transition period could see slow moving troughs across the UK giving a lot of rainfall, and the 00z ECM op run ends lining up a big one of those for day 11, as the trough meets some resistence from the N and NE.

It's a shame that the other route, with high pressure ridging up to the Arctic via the UK, doesn't look to be on the cards, as that would give some welcome relief from the deluge as opposed to something that could end up resembling late December 2012 - though I hope the blocking then goes on to be at least a little bit stronger, as the early stages of last year were often close but no cigar here!

Nonsence friend , i wasnt on about a severe winter (yes thats the express spew) something that has either been conveniently forgotten about was the UKMO who did say a below average December and a slightly below average Jan & Feb ,leading to a slightly below average Winter. if i have to i will look through every post regarding that met office statement in their contingency plans coz i know im right about seeing that

It may not be a wintry nirvana of endless ice days and blizzards as models (and indeed actual weather) have shown in recent years,  but in terms of potential, I'd definitely say it's there in spades compared to the past few weeks.... Indeed, a fortnight today looks like a snowy slider for western and central UK, albeit very marginal, and besides, far too far out to have confidence in the detail.  Also, some of the frosts thereafter look moderately severe (at least to what we've previously expeienced this winter!)  However, firstly, it's all a long way off in weather model terms, and there's little support from the ensembles, so nothing to get excited about yet, maybe just ever-so-slightly hopeful.

Andrew

Those statements don't fit together.

The MetO forecast which I saw only said at the time it was the most likely outcome, not that it was a certainty. The Met Office at least show probabilities and even if there's a 60% chance of something happening it's still relatively likely not to happen.

The same can't be said of the "forecasters" Madden and Powell, oft quoted in the Express, who don't quote percentages at all in the media.

FWIW, looking at the ECM ensemble plumes for the Netherlands it looks like the chance of an easterly or NE'ly flow post-day 8 is around 20%, a non west or SW flow looks to be around 35%. There are two main clusters by the latter stages (post day 10) of the run, one (at 55%) of a generally mild SW'ly-dominated, zonal flow and the other (at 45%) of a colder, less mobile or blocked flow.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

Please do

Well GFS 00z has actually managed to come up with a genuinely wintry FI - Who would have thunk it?

Still the Atlantic keeps on giving though maybe slowing down somewhat but not overly convincing is it at this stage.

No susprise to see the 6z go the way it does. Interesting, n'est ce pas?

What's also interesting is that by 384 the jet profile is quite different to the 0z yet it still builds a block to the NE.

The seeds are sown much earlier, once that jet splits around 144 it greatly increases the odds of a blocking high building somewhere near the UK. As it happens 144 is the 9th, the day the models picked out almost a week ago as heralding the end of our current very unsettled spell.

Looks like GFS is picking up on something today. Will be interesting to see whether this goes the same way as the other Phantom Easterlies that we've had this winter.

Always worth remembering it only takes a week of bitter/snowy weather in an otherwise mild winter (thinking 82/83 and perhaps 2011/2012)  to mean that people's perceptipns of that winter are changed quite a lot.

Lets just hope the blocking sits in the right place rather than a euro or Azores ridge instead.

Something here on GFS.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Whether this materialises or not - Its another matter.

I am getting the feeling though that coldies will have something they like.

There is an awful lot of winter time left - over 8 weeks in fact.

Looks cold enough to me? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3722.png

Fits in with the trend from the 00Z of definite cooling: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

The amount of energy going over the top worries me. Any port in a storm and all that, but I don't see it being sustainable - and likely to be a bit of a toppler, albeit an unconventional one.