Good morning everyone. Here is my website report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 3rd 2013. Transcript lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm.
All models continue to show a powerful storm system close to NW Britain with a windy SW flow with showers across inland UK and severe gales at the coast and a risk of coastal flooding especially in the SW. This pattern continues well into tomorrow before a slow cessation of wind strength is shown but further troughs moving up from the SW tomorrow could enhance rainfall once more with snow possible over Northern hills. On Sunday a brief window of better weather early will evaporate as all models show yet another storm system out to the NW to start next week with renewed severe gales and heavy rain later on Sunday transferring into showers through the start of next week with winds decreasing steadily with time.
GFS then shows showers continuing in lighter winds midweek before a drier interlude gets displaced by troughs of low pressure advancing East slowly across the UK with further rain. This sets the tome for a further spell of changeable and sometimes wet period though severe gales are less likely. It could well turn rather colder too with snow becoming a factor across the North at times as winds turn more ESE here with a Jet stream which ends up to the South of the UK.
The GFS Ensembles look very ordinary though with little evidence of significant cold in our corner of the world. With rain events scattered about throughout the period the likely trend is for a continuation of Atlantic driven weather though effects from excess wind and rain could lessen with time with some members offering some quieter anticyclonic interludes with some frost.
UKMO today shows the period following midweek next week as one of sunshine and showers as Low pressure fills close to the North at the same time as receding away East. Pressure is reluctant to rise significantly over the UK though and it looks only a matter of time before the next Atlantic fronts exiting the West Atlantic make landfall towards the UK by the weekend.
GEM today shows Low pressure gradually moving away East out of the UK from midweek taking a lot of the showery rain with it. A quieter colder period is then shown with a frost risk before the Atlantic brings further troughs into the UK from the West by and over next weekend with further rain at times.
NAVGEM today shows the best chance of seeing somewhat drier conditions across the South at least later next week as it builds High pressure close to the South and SE with dry and possibly milder air pulled NE. However, it also shows a straddling trough caught up under this higher pressure which if verified would bring further rain which extends to most areas again soon after term of the run as the Atlantic feeds another trough East.
ECM continues to look very unsettled with fronts and depression feeding in from the West right up to the end of the UK. There could be a few longer drier phases than of late when it could be rather colder later next week and it will generally be certain to be less windy but any sustained dry weather looks likely to be a scarce commodity with a Low pressure belt again to the North in 10 days time.
The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues to show quite a flat bias in the pattern with Low pressure over Iceland and High pressure to the South. This shows that the bias of members lies with a continuation of a zonal pattern with winds preferring a Westerly aspect with rain at times for all areas in temperatures that never look particularly cold.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream flow blows for another 5 days or so under it's current shape and form before a disruption looks likely for a time later next week. It is short-lived though and seems to reset to a West to East flow close to the UK again late in the period.
In Summary there seems unlikely to be relied upon settled weather over the next few weeks over the UK. Changes in the pattern are trying to occur later next week when pressure rises to the North somewhat but the problem appears that pressure to the South is too high and with an over riding Jet around this the pattern quickly resets to a zonal one once more later in the output. So although there is a window of better and colder weather likely soon after midweek it looks unlikely to move us out of the unsettled spell with further rain at times from the West then taking hold once more. Temperatures for the most part will not be bad considering it's January but it is likely to become somewhat less mild than of late with some snowfall at times possible over Northern high ground. with time.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset