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Whether Idle
03 January 2014 18:54:38




http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-168.GIF?03-0


Interesting ECM


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Quite interesting Marcus, but you were saying all this a month ago before I flew out to Oz! LOL....


Groundhog day on the weather charts, just like it was watching the cricket!!


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I think you will find that is the first time this Winter I has posted the two words " interesting ECM"


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Kettley high in gestation.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
03 January 2014 18:56:56
At 240 the high is slipping away southeast. A tantalising glimpse but not this time.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
03 January 2014 18:57:26

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0


Ends with a slack Easterly over us


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH0-240.GIF?03-0

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
03 January 2014 18:58:16
Whether Idle
03 January 2014 19:00:09


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0


Ends with a slack Easterly over us


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH0-240.GIF?03-0


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Most encouraging!  We need rid of this feckin wind and rain!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
shiver
03 January 2014 19:02:51


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0


Ends with a slack Easterly over us


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH0-240.GIF?03-0


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Most encouraging!  We need rid of this feckin wind and rain!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



GOOD GRIEF were as that run come from ? One can hope 🙂
Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2014 19:06:20

Nearly there!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif 

Originally Posted by: Phil G 





Very close to something special. Even on this run there would be snow around.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
03 January 2014 19:07:20



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0


Ends with a slack Easterly over us


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH0-240.GIF?03-0


Originally Posted by: shiver 


Most encouraging!  We need rid of this feckin wind and rain!


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



GOOD GRIEF were as that run come from ? One can hope :)

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


To be fair the signs have been there for a while, last nights runs and this mornings were suggestive, now its there in an op run within 10 days.


What I find most encourgaing here is that my model of choice - the UKMO is very close to ECM at 144


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021 - UKMO


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 ECM


 


 EDIT - stonking Arctic High JMA  


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0


 


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
03 January 2014 19:14:33
Another Kettley High perhaps? If it does make it, then there is proper cold air around. From flood to freeze in a matter of days. Well, we can only hope!
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
haghir22
03 January 2014 19:14:40
What's that coming over the hill, is it a monster?
YNWA
Charmhills
03 January 2014 19:15:09


The UK force field is in full effect on the ECM :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif


 


-5C uppers almost as far south as the Azores to our southwest, and just across the North Sea, but we manage to stay mostly clear of them...


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Cold rain!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2014 19:15:30
JMA very nearly delivers something special as well.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Phil G
03 January 2014 19:19:10

Nearly there!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 





Very close to something special. Even on this run there would be snow around.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html 

Originally Posted by: Phil G 



At this range, just looking at the general trend rather than specifics and with pressure falling over the Med and HP to the NE, going in the right direction. Just a few more ingredients to fall into place.
doctormog
03 January 2014 19:19:37
It's nice to see consistency from the ECM and UKMO (as both also had encouraging output this morning at a similar timescale). The GFS is not playing ball but to be honest I'd be happy with anything less unsettled!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chiltern Blizzard
03 January 2014 19:53:51
Very encouraging ECM, and other models too for that matter. Just 24 hours ago the models appeared unremittingly zonal, with a high degree of consistency... Now the atlantic train looks like it might struggle to last the week! Even if we don't get a deep freeze it's looking like drying up which I hope we can all agree is a good thing whether mild or cold is your thing.

Andrew.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Gooner
03 January 2014 19:59:02

Nearly there!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 





Very close to something special. Even on this run there would be snow around.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Indeed , certainly feel nippy, It's about time we saw something decent

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hade Edge Snowman
03 January 2014 20:07:50


There's a lot more to weather than snow snow snow.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


This is for your mouth


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
David M Porter
03 January 2014 20:22:42

Closing shortly.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
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