Hi folks. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 3rd 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm.
All models continue the very unsettled and disturbed spell of weather with the showery SW flow being complicated by morning by further troughs moving up from the SW late in the night with further heavy rain at times in squally winds. Tomorrow shows this troughing moving North over the UK with showery west winds returning to the SW later. On Sunday a short window of better weather is the precursor to further strong winds and rain later in the day and into Monday in association with another powerful Winter storm winding up to the West and NW of Scotland on Monday. There will be sunshine and very squally showers from the word 'go' in the SW returning later in the day to all areas. Then over Tuesday and Wednesday all models show pressure rising slowly as the Low pressure to the North fills but with a trough close to the South further prolonged rain may affect the South for a time towards midweek while showers largely continue elsewhere.
GFS then shows further unsettled weather later next week and through next weekend as less significant troughs bring bands of rain Eastward across the UK at times in average temperatures. Then later in the run the Atlantic flow strengthens again with further big storms possible to batter the UK with rain and gales by the runs end in continuing temperatures close to average.
The GFS Ensembles show little change from previous runs with the majority of members maintaining largely average temperatures for this time of year with Westerly winds carrying rain and strong winds at times across the UK though on this set not to the severe extent of recent events.
UKMO tonight closes it's run next Thursday with a showery WNW flow ahead of a brief ridge of High pressure covering the UK in sunshine and showers with further unsettled conditions out to the West in the Atlantic poised to affect the UK again late in the week and into the weekend.
GEM keeps things very unsettled again all the way out to the end of its run in 10 days time. With west and then SW winds there will be further rain or showers at times in blustery winds less strong than recently.
NAVGEM shows a belt of Low pressure still across Northern waters with a Westerly flow still blowing across the UK albeit much lighter than of late. There is still scope for occasional rainfall though the South could become rather drier as pressure has built stronger to the South and SE later next week.
ECM shows a very complex pattern setting up later next week as a gentle shift towards colder but still unsettled weather is well on the cards on tonight's operational. High pressure builds over Scandinavia and with a Jet flow moving South some undercutting is permitted throwing the risk of rain, sleet and snow coming up from the SW late next week with a colder, less windy period likely to last through the weekend and into the following week.
The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues to look as this morning heavily biased towards Low pressure more likely to be towards the NW of the UK and High to the South with a Westerly flow still indicative over the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow retaining it's current strong East trajectory over the Atlantic towards France or Southern Britain over the next 5 to 7 days. Thereafter it tends to more Southerly levels over the second period of the run indicating the threat of colder weather, though this more likely from Polar maritime air from the NW rather than the East on this run.
In Summary there remains a lot of support for the weather to remain largely unsettled across the UK over the next few weeks with sustained dry weather looking unlikely. However, the strong winds of late should decrease to more modest and average levels given the synoptics as shown. ECM looks much more encouraging for cold weather lovers tonight with it's operational showing a Scandinavian High and undercutting Low pressure towards the SW throwing the risk of lower temperatures and the chance of snowfall to some areas even in the South in among the rainier spells. Whether this is a one off or is expanded upon over subsequent runs is open for debate but it shouldn't be discounted as the Atlantic train, though not lying down becomes less of a ferocious beast with time creating better opportunity for pressure to rise either to the South or North-east later.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset