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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 January 2014 17:43:36

I'll try and do a risk map tonight when all the 12Zs have run. Basically we have an evap cooling situ going on here, with some pockets cold enough to produce snow even to lower levels. Very marginal, whether snow falls will be dependant on a huge variety of factors; 850hpa temps incidently will not be useful determinators. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
03 January 2014 18:10:55
Going by NAE, the most action is going to be in northwestern Ireland.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prty/14010412_0312.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
haghir22
03 January 2014 19:17:00
I was looking at this earlier and thinking the Midlands could be in one for quite a surprise?
YNWA
03 January 2014 19:37:26
Temperatures dipped in this squally mix of rain and hail, gone from 8C at 16.00 to 5.1C in last couple of hours, no sferics to report here yet...... You saying a chance of some of the white stuff then tomorrow in Leicester area??
Cheers
VSC
Essan
03 January 2014 20:32:10

Can't see much snow outside of the Pennines myself. 

Edit: and Ireland


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
03 January 2014 21:37:10

The area covered by Met Office warning seems to have expanded considerably this evening.



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ne&fcTime=1388793600


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 January 2014 22:09:53

This has to be the single wierdest snow distribution map I have ever done



Based on Soundings and other parameters from mostly high res forecast models. Important caveat: The purpose of these maps is to indicate snow probability for lower ground; obviously large parts of highland scotland and the pennines are well above sea level however they are not intended to be as espcially accurate for such high ground). They will be good for cities in these regions and other fairly low lying areas especially.


Map is for snow risk for any given location in a region for 24 hours starting midnight tonight. 


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Lionel Hutz
03 January 2014 23:07:59
Might be a nice surprise for me - although I appreciate that I'm not in the most at risk area. Your work on this is much appreciated, Quantum!
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



peeps in west oxon
04 January 2014 11:59:04
Any updates from anyone, or just rain?😊
West Oxfordshire, 80M ASL
ARTzeman
04 January 2014 12:01:13

Rain here.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
peeps in west oxon
04 January 2014 12:35:45
Yes just rain here, but I wasn't expecting anything else.
West Oxfordshire, 80M ASL
ARTzeman
04 January 2014 12:53:59

Maybe Northern Ireland or north Scotland where the dam may be low enough to snow..






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
NDJF
04 January 2014 13:18:41

cool and wet here in the western midlands, 6.1c and rain, checkeed the webcams around cat and fiddle (400m ASL) no signs anything wintry there either.  role on spring please, this winter is a drag already.

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 January 2014 20:20:54

Getting recent reports of snow in cornwall in the 20% region on the map, can anyone confirm? 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Karl Guille
04 January 2014 20:36:46
Just tried to log in to rain today premium but lost my password and can't currently retrieve it!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 January 2014 21:05:25

Just tried to log in to rain today premium but lost my password and can't currently retrieve it!

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Rain today is showing small areas of grey although there are a few observations floating around about quite a heavy snow event. Difficult to confirm though, I wouldn't use raintoday or these unofficial citings as good evidence. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2014 21:18:17

Very little precipitation of any kind here so no chance of evaporative cooling getting going.
It was in that risk area around 4C with light wind though.


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 January 2014 21:28:01


Very little precipitation of any kind here so no chance of evaporative cooling getting going.
It was in that risk area around 4C with light wind though.


Originally Posted by: four 


I've counted 5 unofficial reports now of snow in cornwal (4 on twitter, 1 on metcheck) in that area, plus raintoday was showing a rain/snow mix in some parts. Some of those showers on lands end were even rated as mixed. Still nothing official though. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ARTzeman
04 January 2014 23:08:50

Snow in Princetown Devon. 21;05 according to regional discussions South West. on N-W. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
04 January 2014 23:13:40

Snow Watch Facebook .Snow falling heavy in Anglesey N. Wales.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 January 2014 23:24:06


Snow Watch Facebook .Snow falling heavy in Anglesey N. Wales.  


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Do you have any reports of snow falling in parts of Ireland today? I would be really interested to try and critically evaluate how well that distribution map represented the actual snowfall today. I (and some of the models I used to make the map) clearly got the wales snow wrong.  


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
dagspot
04 January 2014 23:39:37
rain fell in the high risk zone southern Scotland
Neilston 600ft ASL
NickR
05 January 2014 01:08:32
Looks like Lancs and Yorks are getting snow, Quantum... Bradford, Leeds.. might get to York.
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
snow 2004
05 January 2014 01:20:16

Looks like Lancs and Yorks are getting snow, Quantum... Bradford, Leeds.. might get to York.

Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


We just had a light ice pellet shower about ten minutes ago. Before that it was 1c and frosty. Such a shame we're not 20 miles further North where the heavier showers are. I wonder if they are proper snow showers.


Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 January 2014 01:37:49

Looks like Lancs and Yorks are getting snow, Quantum... Bradford, Leeds.. might get to York.

Originally Posted by: NickR 


Rain today is showing those showers as a real mess! We have snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain all in there. Looks like they seem to be turning more and more snowy too. Do you think some of the places you mentioned could end up with a suprise dusting? 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
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