Good morning. Here is the report on today's NWP output for today Tuesday January 7th 2013.
All models show the filling of the deep Atlantic depression to the North of Scotland continuing a pace with less windy weather developing through today. The frequent showers will become less widespread today and the process will continue overnight. However, all models show a disturbance running close to SE Britain tonight and a larger disturbance tomorrow bringing heavy rain back across Southern Britain later. Then after all models show a Westerly flow on Thursday and the rest of the week and start to the weekend with some further showers. Sunday then shows a ridge of High pressure bring a decent day to end the weekend.
GFS then shows next week as another very unsettled and potentially wet week as further Low pressure moves East then SE over the UK, each bringing their own spells of potentially heavy rain followed by showers in blustery winds with the end frames of the run showing a colder push from Europe to the SE briefly on the exit of the last depression of the run.
The GFS Ensembles show a continued pattern of only small changes in both pattern and temperature values with the only trend of note is for the winds to be a little less notable and temperatures to be a little less mild. With regard to rainfall however there is still scope for disruption due to further heavy rain at times from this morning's ensemble set.
UKMO today closes it's run next Monday with a Low pressure centre over Iceland pushing an active Atlantic trough slowly East across the UK with copious rainfall for all through the day.
GEM also shows a very unsettled week next week as a series of depression commencing on Monday move close to the West of the UK with heavy rain on several occasions under blustery West winds before they turn North or NE late in the run with rain turning to snow in places as temperatures would take a sharp dip.
NAVGEM today shows Low pressure up to the NW with fronts crossing NE over the UK with further rain at times to start next week.
ECM next week shows very changeable conditions with pressure relatively high to the East and repeated attacks from the Atlantic sending bands of rain repeatedly into the UK from the Atlantic before becoming slow moving over the UK and sliding away SE. Rain could well be heavy at times and cause further disruption should this run verify.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts show a very worrying trend for those afflicted by fronts. There appears good support for High pressure to set up shop to the East of the UK with troughs ganging up on the UK to the West or over the UK. This could mean slow moving bands of rain affecting the UK throughout the end of next week exasipating flooding issues.
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The Jet Stream Forecast shows the long lasting strong West to East flow of late breaking up somewhat over the coming days before something of a reset takes place but at the European end the flow is forced South to lower latitudes in response to higher pressure to the East or NE.
In Summary this morning it is not a pretty sight for those looking for drier weather as after a brief lull for some at the weekend next week looks again very disturbed and potentially wet but under different type of synoptics than of late. This time higher pressure looks like being maintained to the East of the UK with the Atlantic still quite active. This then has the effect of stalling the rain bearing fronts coming into the West and consequently giving rise to much unwanted rainfall through the week with conditions cold enough for some snow on Northern hills at times. In the models longer term trends it look as though undercutting of the lows in a more SE fashion over Europe may develop and if this verifies it maybe that in 10-14 days that we may finally see something more seasonal from the East become more of a threat for the UK.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset