GFS showing more wintry potential in FI.  Though it has to be said -although this is still FI -  this seems to be a growing trend, adding that with a number of ensemble members going for cold warrants some moderate debate as to whether we will see our old friend "slider Low" make an appearance this year.

Funnily enough - I was going to post this morning how mhuch the charts are beginning to resemble early last winter (2012/13) with the cold being stuck over Scandinavia and slack lows dropping onto UK but not pulling in cold air.

GFS operational has a less progressive Atlantic.allowing HP to build to  north east albeit temporarily.06H ensembles show 50:50 sli split zonal:anticyclonic ,with at present stalling troughs,  but with as you say potentiall for our old friend the "slider Low"

THE GFS 06h has 60% Antivclonic,.T0 wet your appetite n0s 1,2,3 7,9,11,1214,16,17,18,20.Some real cold there.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&heure=6&jour=7&mois=1&annee=2013&archive=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&heure=6&jour=7&mois=1&annee=2013&archive=1

Here is this dates  operational from GFS.At 144h Scandi hp in place and model forecasting resurgence at around 240h.My memory suggests that the the 144h HP slowly reformed over Scandinvaia and very slowly cold air was introduced to the  UK by 20th January.

Yep. Anything from about p16 onwards resolve in a very cold solution and most of the others have a distinct chill about them far out.

They all seem to bring a degree of real cold to Scandinavia and mainland Europe too, even the warmer members.

Hopefully the trend will continue. I have a feeling we might see a period of cold incursions rather than sustained ice days, but you never know. This is based purely on what usually happens.

Hey all,

Here's today's video update;

Very Wet And Eventually Cold Next Week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Very concerned about the heavy rain next week. Eventually things  could turn colder.

Thanks Gav.

Fingers crossed the Korean model has February nailled then!  

OK this is getting ridiculous now, why can't the NAVGEM or GFS agree wrg strat?

They seem to be showing different analysis charts now?!
I mean wth, the former has quite significant warming, wheras the GFS is not doing much at all?!

GFS is crxp apparantly

Meanwhile the prospect of a wet battleground across the UK is a tad worrying but can be a precursor to cold down the line. 

At least there were a couple of very cold runs in the 6z ensembles, at least for a time and that implies blocking taking a good grip IMO.

I have delayed putting Moomins ark away for the time being

LP's backing West:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010712/gfs-0-90.png?12

..which allows cold air to head South:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010712/gfs-1-96.png?12

The LP in the Atlantic has nowhere to go, further West than 06z:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010712/gfs-0-102.png?12

Could be a decent run this

:P

But I have literally never seen such a difference between two models before of any parameter.

I mean look at this

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014010706/navgemnh-7-144.png?07-11

polar votex literally shrunk to a peanut over the canadian archipeligo. 

GFS meanwhile has -70C air across most of the arctic

wth is going on!?

True.  Ark of HP looks stronger, and so too does the shot of cold air to the North East.  If all three engage better we could be on for a more established easterly from this.

My gut feeling says it will eventually get there, but perhaps not on this run.

Good so far though.

The deeply frigid (-25c to -30c 850Hpa temps) in NE US arrives on the west coast of Ireland on Friday at a hugely modified temperature of -5c.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn722.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140107/12/183/h850t850eu.png

GFS modeling the cold closer again on this run, thats 2-3 days of the cold being modelled closer to the uk, with Rising Pressure becoming more of a feature to the East and North.

YES Rob thats much better

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=5&carte=1

On the plus side, the main cold core then transfers from America towards Scandinavia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.png