Yet yesterday they were talking about an easterly wind or they mentioned it!?? Is it me or is this a down grade after down grade!? - Alsothe we still see the usual rubbish in the Daily Experess - "Big freeze" as four inches fo snow is on the way!!" haha classic!

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map 

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1. 
   
   potential long term hope, guess CF has credability given his link to the met and Beeb, unlike many others who seem keen to post om twitter.   
   




3. 
   
        
   
        Chris Fawkes     ‏@_chrisfawkes                14h       
   

   The trend to note with ECMWF for UK is High W Russia, at least in the long range it gives a chance of having some winter this year

   
   
   
   

Metoffice:

"Developments next weekend are, at this stage, uncertain, but the most likely scenario is thought for conditions to become a little more settled and perhaps also a little colder from the east or northeast. "

Things could easily tip...

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An interesting update today by the Meto... All to play for still :-)

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Given the state of the models I think that uncertainty will be removed today.

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Indeed, although the mentioned uncertainty isn't detailed, so it could just have been the difference between wet and dry.

Certainly there's little in any of the respected outputs to indicate any real wintry weather anytime soon.

Could change of course (before someone feels they have to mention the bleeding obvious every time)

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The Sunday Telegraph and Times have weather related articles .Both imply a potential change to much colder conditions later this week albeit temporarily. Philip Eden in particular hints at a change from next weekend which flies in the face of TWO posters.... Interesting times ahead

Gone now anyway. 

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And how Philip brought up February 1990. That made me judder as that was a rubbish spell of winter weather where it blew a gale practically every other day for six weeks after that infamous St Burns Day storm. I was working as a landscape gardener for the local council at the time and spent most of the winter months maintaining a coastal park area, I certainly did get a bit windswept! I think my face has never been the same since then.
   I don't care if it doesn't snow for the rest of this winter and if it stays mild enough for bluebells and daffodils to start springing up by mid-February then so be it, but I do not want to experience a repeat of that late January and the whole of February 1990.

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Although they do still mention that temperatures will be around average for many, milder (than average) in the SW and cooler (than average) in the NE at the same time point as in the previous forecast. So not a massive change.

Overall the suggestion is of a rather average picture in terms of temperature (but with the risk of cooler night dragging the mean daily values down?)

For clarification this is not my opinion, just comments based on the Met Office forecasts from www.metoffice.gov.uk

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Evening weather chums. 

Here are updated thoughts for the weather in Kent for the next 7-10 days.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK0OP9-QHw8

 

 

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Monday 13 January Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary


Low pressure remains in charge

Last week we discussed that during the weeks ahead the unsettled theme would continue, with generally average temperatures and only brief colder incursions.

The warming effect of the Atlantic on any cold air coming out of North America should never be underestimated even considering the recent cold snap in North America, as a result this week will remain unsettled but not particularly cold.

There will be some snow this week, but mainly over hills over the northern half of the country, much as one would expect during winter. Any precipitation, whether solid or liquid, is not welcome where flooding remains a threat, and there will be periods of rain in the coming week which will be closely monitored.


Monday 13 January—Sunday 19 January

Low pressure continues to dominate

Monday starts with the overnight rain dragging its heels over Shetland; it should be clear of here by the afternoon but it will remain windy with gales likely. Elsewhere, following a cold and in places frosty and icy start, there will be sunny spells and showers. The best of the sunshine will be in eastern areas, where it could stay dry all day. Temperatures will be around the January average.

On Monday night most of the showers will clear away, to leave it cold and frosty with some ice possible once again. This will likely be the last of the colder nights for the remainder of the week.

A few showers will remain into Tuesday around windward coasts. Otherwise Tuesday will start cold and bright, and for many it will be a fine day. The next frontal system will spread cloud and rain across Northern Ireland on Tuesday afternoon, then over the rest of the UK during the evening.

This rain will clear most areas on Wednesday, although there is a risk that the front responsible could stall over southern parts of England. If this transpires, it would undoubtedly increase the risk of further flooding.

Elsewhere on Wednesday and through the rest of the week the unsettled theme continues, often windy with a risk of coastal gales and temperatures around the seasonal average. The showers will sometimes be heavy and blustery, again especially around coasts. Hill snow is possible in the north with these showers. There will be some sunshine in between the showers too, particularly in more eastern parts.


Monday 20 January—Sunday 26 January

Staying unsettled

With low pressure remaining to the west or northwest of the UK, the unsettled theme looks set to continue at first. As the week progresses, indications are that the more unsettled conditions will become confined to the north whilst in the south pressure will rise a little bringing drier, brighter weather for some.

Temperatures are likely to be near normal for most, but with an increasing risk of cold nights returning especially if high pressure builds across southern parts.


Monday 27 January—Sunday 9 February

A long overdue dry spell?

The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled weather, leaving southern and eastern regions tending to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions.

This would certainly be welcome where groundwater is at a maximum; it is too early to tell how prolonged any drier spell would be. It is still possible that a settled period could be interrupted by passing weather systems.

With more settled conditions some periods of colder weather are likely, but overall the indications are currently that temperatures may well remain near normal.


Next week

Is there any sign of significant snow?


Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 20 January

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UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Jan 2014 to Monday 27 Jan 2014:

Sunny spells through the weekend but probably still on the unsettled side with some showers. These are most likely near southern and western coasts, and they could be wintry over high ground. Also, some more persistent rain is possible in the north at first. Temperatures near or just below average for many, but rather cold for northern parts by night with a risk of frost and fog patches. Into the following week and it is likely to become slightly more unsettled. It may turn windier, especially in the northwest, as rain spreads in from the west, probably preceded by some hill snow. Later in the period and it is likely to remain at least a little on the unsettled side, especially in the north. Temperatures near or below normal.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 11 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting through the end of January and into early February, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of this month. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled weather leaving southern and eastern regions tending to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.

Issued at: 1600 on Mon 13 Jan 2014

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/chatham-medway#?tab=regionalForecast

 

Apart from Hill Snow, not much in the way of snow, maybe some colder spells.

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The metoffice wouldn't have seen the ECMWF12z before 4pm though. Interesting to see what their update says at 5am when we have the 0Zs too. 

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Not much change:

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 28 Jan 2014:

It will remain changeable at first with bright or sunny spells and showers, perhaps merging into more persistent rain at times. There is a chance of hill snow in northwestern parts of the UK at times too. Into the following week, a gradual transition to more unsettled weather is expected. Some dry weather is likely at first but wetter weather will spread eastwards later in the week, bringing hill snow in the north of the country and perhaps to lower levels for a time too. Temperatures will be near or slightly below average with overnight frost and patchy fog likely. Little change is expected as we head towards the following weekend, with southern parts seeing the best of any dry weather, and the most unsettled conditions further north and west.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 12 Feb 2014:

Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting through the end of January and into early February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, meaning that temperatures overall may well be near or a little below normal.

Issued at: 0400 on Tue 14 Jan 2014

 

Cherry-pickers will notice that "near normal" right at the end has become "near or a little below normal".

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N Miller commenting how little snow there has been this winter, showing a comparson to last year when snow  was across the UK

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As if we need reminding

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He did seem rather happy

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Cmon people, there is the whole of february! Plus I might win the CET competition this month. Every cloud has a silver lining. 

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According to Exacta, a solar flare is to blame for cancelling the easterly (see the PDF linked to in this tweet).

https://twitter.com/Exacta_Weather/status/423194317167923200

I'm not sure what cancelled the November and December snow, though.

 

But it was cold in the USA, so of course he claims to be a weather guru. Though I don't see how his forecasts came up with record breaking cold weather in both the US and Europe for most of the winter. I can't think of many synoptics that would produce that.

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I'd like to stick a solar flare up his......

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Where the sun doesn't shine?

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Oddly, solar activity only ever affects the weather in Britain, and never anywhere else in the world .......

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