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Quantum
17 January 2014 13:29:03





I think he meant it was "poor" that out-of-date or incorrect maps are used that disagree with what the forecaster was saying. And if so then I agree. Surely in this day and age, maps can be modified and tweaked or completely redrawn in minutes if necessary? 50 years ago you had people drawing isobars on a glass screen with a pen, live on telly. At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I think even the most specific hi res models only update four times a day, perhaps its too much of a hassle to tweak the processed graphics so much, particualrly if they are nearly always fine. I tend to think of the maps more as a guide anyway, and try to listen to what the forecaster is saying. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


A guide


 


How can it be a guide when the winds were from Denmark and Betty boy says " winds from the South"


 


Come off it Q


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Because the models are clearly struggling with the sitation at the moment. I haven't seen so much disagreement in years, and that is saying something considering how much the models have improved, since, say 2005. If the maps have easterly winds, and the presenter says southerly winds; then its best to plump with the presenter. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I'm not arguing that , I am saying it looks poor, and makes him look foolish IMO


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It shouldn't though, as he can be hardly blamed for it. Tweaking the BBC graphics to fit the mets intepretation is probably much harder than it sounds, if we still had the symbols then okay sure. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gusty
17 January 2014 13:33:09

The Met Office are thinking that the mobile westerly theme will keep going until at least Mid February.



UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Feb 2014 to Saturday 15 Feb 2014:


Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into early February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the best spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems.


Updated: 1159 on Fri 17 Jan 2014


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Quantum
17 January 2014 13:38:32


The Met Office are thinking that the mobile westerly theme will keep going until at least Mid February.



UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Feb 2014 to Saturday 15 Feb 2014:


Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into early February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the best spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems.


Updated: 1159 on Fri 17 Jan 2014



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Awful 


Anyway the singularities (avg historical weather) suggest the single most likely time in the whole winter for snow, is the last week of february, a repeat of 2005 would suit me fine. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
17 January 2014 14:41:05



The Met Office are thinking that the mobile westerly theme will keep going until at least Mid February.



UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Feb 2014 to Saturday 15 Feb 2014:


Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into early February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the best spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems.


Updated: 1159 on Fri 17 Jan 2014



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Awful 


Anyway the singularities (avg historical weather) suggest the single most likely time in the whole winter for snow, is the last week of february, a repeat of 2005 would suit me fine. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 January 2014 14:42:39






I think he meant it was "poor" that out-of-date or incorrect maps are used that disagree with what the forecaster was saying. And if so then I agree. Surely in this day and age, maps can be modified and tweaked or completely redrawn in minutes if necessary? 50 years ago you had people drawing isobars on a glass screen with a pen, live on telly. At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think even the most specific hi res models only update four times a day, perhaps its too much of a hassle to tweak the processed graphics so much, particualrly if they are nearly always fine. I tend to think of the maps more as a guide anyway, and try to listen to what the forecaster is saying. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


A guide


 


How can it be a guide when the winds were from Denmark and Betty boy says " winds from the South"


 


Come off it Q


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Because the models are clearly struggling with the sitation at the moment. I haven't seen so much disagreement in years, and that is saying something considering how much the models have improved, since, say 2005. If the maps have easterly winds, and the presenter says southerly winds; then its best to plump with the presenter. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I'm not arguing that , I am saying it looks poor, and makes him look foolish IMO


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It shouldn't though, as he can be hardly blamed for it. Tweaking the BBC graphics to fit the mets intepretation is probably much harder than it sounds, if we still had the symbols then okay sure. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


would you stand infront of a camers broadcasted to millions and say something opposite to what was being shown?......maybe you would?  I wouldn't , of course it is his fault , the words came out of his mouth......didnt they?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Essan
17 January 2014 15:39:55


D Bett at 22:30


" winds from the South"


Yet the wind arrows were coming across the N Sea from Denmark


Originally Posted by: Gooner 





You can have both you know     Indeed, it's exactly would I'd expect on Sunday: strong easterly winds coming across Denmark into the North Sea, but a gentle southerly breeze across much of England, especially the south.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Sevendust
17 January 2014 15:55:32



The Met Office are thinking that the mobile westerly theme will keep going until at least Mid February.



UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Feb 2014 to Saturday 15 Feb 2014:


Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into early February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the best spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems.


Updated: 1159 on Fri 17 Jan 2014



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Awful 


Anyway the singularities (avg historical weather) suggest the single most likely time in the whole winter for snow, is the last week of february, a repeat of 2005 would suit me fine. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I thought the Buchan singularity occured towards mid-February, not at the end?

Rob K
17 January 2014 16:07:10


The Met Office are thinking that the mobile westerly theme will keep going until at least Mid February.



UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Feb 2014 to Saturday 15 Feb 2014:


Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into early February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the best spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems.


Updated: 1159 on Fri 17 Jan 2014



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


That doesn't sound like a mobile westerly theme so much as a "we don't have a clue so let's cover all bases" forecast. Which is unsurprising, as Ian Fergusson et al have said the uncertainty is huge.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
17 January 2014 16:23:46



D Bett at 22:30


" winds from the South"


Yet the wind arrows were coming across the N Sea from Denmark


Originally Posted by: Essan 





You can have both you know     Indeed, it's exactly would I'd expect on Sunday: strong easterly winds coming across Denmark into the North Sea, but a gentle southerly breeze across much of England, especially the south.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


But the forecast only showed a strong wind from the East, nothing from the South, I suggest you look at the forecast

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
17 January 2014 16:24:53



The Met Office are thinking that the mobile westerly theme will keep going until at least Mid February.



UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Feb 2014 to Saturday 15 Feb 2014:


Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into early February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the best spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems.


Updated: 1159 on Fri 17 Jan 2014



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Awful 


Anyway the singularities (avg historical weather) suggest the single most likely time in the whole winter for snow, is the last week of february, a repeat of 2005 would suit me fine. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Interesting that you mention Feb 2005 Quantum. I mentioned the winter of 2004/05 winter in a previous model thread recently and commented about how December 2004 and much of January 2005 were broadly similar in nature to how this winter has panned out thus far. Tet the tail end of February, and the first half of March that year, gave us our coldest period of that particular winter.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Essan
17 January 2014 16:38:08




D Bett at 22:30


" winds from the South"


Yet the wind arrows were coming across the N Sea from Denmark


Originally Posted by: Gooner 





You can have both you know     Indeed, it's exactly would I'd expect on Sunday: strong easterly winds coming across Denmark into the North Sea, but a gentle southerly breeze across much of England, especially the south.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


But the forecast only showed a strong wind from the East, nothing from the South, I suggest you look at the forecast


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Ah, but the southerly is too light to justfy wind arrows


Anyway sounds like the real problem was a lack of proper synoptic chart?   The isobars would have made everything clear

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
tallyho_83
18 January 2014 01:20:31
Outlook by Weather Online:


Month ahead - January 17, 2014


Valid from 30/11 to 27/12 2013

Winter arriving?


Issued: Friday 17th January 2014
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


A wintry start to February?

There have been signs for some time that temperatures would become cooler at the end of January and into the first half of February.
It may be that a spell of wintry weather occurs through this period as east to northeast winds develop.
Turning milder once again by the middle of the month, and overall remaining unsettled throughout.


24/1/14 to 30/1/14*
A trough is looking set to be through the country during the course of this week. This is going to be maintaining low pressure as the main feature of the weather, and as a result conditions are likely to be remaining unsettled.
Winds may well be from the west or northwest overall, and this is going to lead to cooler temperatures.
Although not expected to be cold, it will be cooler than recently. Snow is likely over the hills at times, especially in the north, but increasingly over southern hill tops at times too.

*31/1/14 to 6/2/14*
There are some indications that this could become a fairly stormy period. Deeper areas of low pressure could affect the country again as the jet stream intensifies.
Areas of rain will be driven eastwards through all parts of the UK and Ireland bringing a risk of localised flooding. There is the possibility that as winds swing into the northwest, a brief period of snow could develop. This is though to be short lived and will mainly affect hills.
This wintry mix of conditions could last through the rest of the week.

*7/2/14 to 13/2/14*
This week is expected to be remaining unsettled. Confidence is low, but there are again indications of some wintry weather around through this week. Sleet or snow will most likely affect eastern and southern parts of the UK with the north and west tending to be drier.
Later in the week the weather may start to become milder once again.

*14/2/14 to 20/2/14* A milder and changeable middle part of February. Temperatures are likely to be nearer normal. There will be further rain at times, some of it heavy and slow moving, although the winds should ease.


They got the date and year wrong but never mind!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&DAY=20140117 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
18 January 2014 08:11:29


Comedians in my opinion

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
18 January 2014 13:11:13

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/nathan-rao/454115/What-happened-to-the-dreaded-Beast-from-the-East


 


Have hope people, the daily express is now saying there isn't going to be snow and cold which can only mean we will all be snowed under in a couple of weeks.


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
glenogle
18 January 2014 13:39:13


http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/nathan-rao/454115/What-happened-to-the-dreaded-Beast-from-the-East


 


Have hope people, the daily express is now saying there isn't going to be snow and cold which can only mean we will all be snowed under in a couple of weeks.



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


"Some forecasters warned of heavy snow, particularly in the North where up to four inches was predicted to hit high ground."


This has happened several times over the last few weeks.  Just shows how safe a bet it is during the winter despite the weather pattern not being as precicted.  


I am pretty sure, that some would use that as a verification stat for their "wrong" forecast.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
bledur
18 January 2014 13:56:22

Comedians in my opinion


what is that supposed to mean?fair enough januarys forecast was off the mark but most times they are pretty accurate. hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Quantum
18 January 2014 14:04:11



http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/nathan-rao/454115/What-happened-to-the-dreaded-Beast-from-the-East


 


Have hope people, the daily express is now saying there isn't going to be snow and cold which can only mean we will all be snowed under in a couple of weeks.



Originally Posted by: glenogle 


 


"Some forecasters warned of heavy snow, particularly in the North where up to four inches was predicted to hit high ground."


This has happened several times over the last few weeks.  Just shows how safe a bet it is during the winter despite the weather pattern not being as precicted.  


I am pretty sure, that some would use that as a verification stat for their "wrong" forecast.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Well its important to understand that the scottish highlands are a completely different climate to low land britian. Metoffice anoch mor forecast for the next five days is virtually constant snow or heavy snow, and sub zero temperatures the likes of which anywhere else would only see during '63! 


Looking at the historical data the last time another mountain site, cairngorm summit, got above freezing was almost exactly a month ago on the 19th December, and thats in a mild winter! Mild winters in mountain sites are colder than cold winters on lowland sites! 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
18 January 2014 14:38:53

EDIT: Sorry should be for the MO thread


 


Ive pasted it in the right thread. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
tallyho_83
18 January 2014 15:49:53
Not even 1600 yet but here is the Met Office update:


UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014:

Mostly unsettled on Thursday with showers and some longer spells of rain, especially northern and eastern areas. The best of any dry, bright weather likely to be in the southwest, extending to most southern areas later. Rain will return to the northwest overnight into Friday, whilst the southeast remains largely dry. Temperatures near normal, with overnight frosts across inland areas with localised fog and ice patches. Fairly light winds, but becoming stronger in the northwest. From the weekend onwards the unsettled theme is likely to continue; especially in the north and west. This would mean bands of rain, with hill snow in the north, interspersed with clearer, colder and more showery conditions, and brisk winds. Temperatures near or slightly below normal with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog.

UK Outlook for Sunday 2 Feb 2014 to Sunday 16 Feb 2014:

Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into the middle of February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the best spells of drier and brighter weather. Some colder periods are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems.

Issued at: 1600 on Sat 18 Jan 2014

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
18 January 2014 16:15:33
The real reason for the flooding: gay marriage.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-01-18/ukip-councillor-blames-flooding-on-same-sex-marriage 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
dagspot
19 January 2014 12:16:18
TS on BBC News - Next week slowly turning colder, perhaps very cold by the weekend. Will be interesting to see how that transpires in the Weather for the Week after 1pm.
Neilston 600ft ASL
The Beast from the East
19 January 2014 12:19:09

TS on BBC News - Next week slowly turning colder, perhaps very cold by the weekend. Will be interesting to see how that transpires in the Weather for the Week after 1pm.

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


I'm surprised they would be so bullish. Only UKMO shows something remotely "very cold", and even then only for a day

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
19 January 2014 12:19:18

TS on BBC News - Next week slowly turning colder, perhaps very cold by the weekend. Will be interesting to see how that transpires in the Weather for the Week after 1pm.

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


where is he getting that from

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


NDJF
19 January 2014 12:21:50

Think we should realy follow only one form of medium for continued accuracy and thats the MO.


Reminds me of the programme Catchphrase " say what you see" and what you see now is diferent to what you see in 5 seconds time.


 


Really,  roll on summer.







  1.               4 hrs       

    Someone has stolen the cold agai! After yesterday's signs, it's back to the trough and WNW today






Whether Idle
19 January 2014 13:23:46


TS on BBC News - Next week slowly turning colder, perhaps very cold by the weekend. Will be interesting to see how that transpires in the Weather for the Week after 1pm.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I'm surprised they would be so bullish. Only UKMO shows something remotely "very cold", and even then only for a day


Originally Posted by: dagspot 


Models are not everything.  Try your gut

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
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