Monday 13 January Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook
Summary
Low pressure remains in charge
Last week we discussed that during the weeks ahead the unsettled theme would continue, with generally average temperatures and only brief colder incursions.
The warming effect of the Atlantic on any cold air coming out of North America should never be underestimated even considering the recent cold snap in North America, as a result this week will remain unsettled but not particularly cold.
There will be some snow this week, but mainly over hills over the northern half of the country, much as one would expect during winter. Any precipitation, whether solid or liquid, is not welcome where flooding remains a threat, and there will be periods of rain in the coming week which will be closely monitored.
Monday 13 January—Sunday 19 January
Low pressure continues to dominate
Monday starts with the overnight rain dragging its heels over Shetland; it should be clear of here by the afternoon but it will remain windy with gales likely. Elsewhere, following a cold and in places frosty and icy start, there will be sunny spells and showers. The best of the sunshine will be in eastern areas, where it could stay dry all day. Temperatures will be around the January average.
On Monday night most of the showers will clear away, to leave it cold and frosty with some ice possible once again. This will likely be the last of the colder nights for the remainder of the week.
A few showers will remain into Tuesday around windward coasts. Otherwise Tuesday will start cold and bright, and for many it will be a fine day. The next frontal system will spread cloud and rain across Northern Ireland on Tuesday afternoon, then over the rest of the UK during the evening.
This rain will clear most areas on Wednesday, although there is a risk that the front responsible could stall over southern parts of England. If this transpires, it would undoubtedly increase the risk of further flooding.
Elsewhere on Wednesday and through the rest of the week the unsettled theme continues, often windy with a risk of coastal gales and temperatures around the seasonal average. The showers will sometimes be heavy and blustery, again especially around coasts. Hill snow is possible in the north with these showers. There will be some sunshine in between the showers too, particularly in more eastern parts.
Monday 20 January—Sunday 26 January
Staying unsettled
With low pressure remaining to the west or northwest of the UK, the unsettled theme looks set to continue at first. As the week progresses, indications are that the more unsettled conditions will become confined to the north whilst in the south pressure will rise a little bringing drier, brighter weather for some.
Temperatures are likely to be near normal for most, but with an increasing risk of cold nights returning especially if high pressure builds across southern parts.
Monday 27 January—Sunday 9 February
A long overdue dry spell?
The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled weather, leaving southern and eastern regions tending to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions.
This would certainly be welcome where groundwater is at a maximum; it is too early to tell how prolonged any drier spell would be. It is still possible that a settled period could be interrupted by passing weather systems.
With more settled conditions some periods of colder weather are likely, but overall the indications are currently that temperatures may well remain near normal.
Next week
Is there any sign of significant snow?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 20 January
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com