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micahel37
15 January 2014 16:10:50



According to Exacta, a solar flare is to blame for cancelling the easterly


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Oddly, solar activity only ever affects the weather in Britain, and never anywhere else in the world .......


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I have certainly seem folks claim just that!


Polbeth, West Lothian 150m asl
15 January 2014 17:05:18


According to Exacta, a solar flare is to blame for cancelling the easterly (see the PDF linked to in this tweet).

https://twitter.com/Exacta_Weather/status/423194317167923200

I'm not sure what cancelled the November and December snow, though.


 


But it was cold in the USA, so of course he claims to be a weather guru. Though I don't see how his forecasts came up with record breaking cold weather in both the US and Europe for most of the winter. I can't think of many synoptics that would produce that.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Doesn't explain why last weekend he will still banging on about cold and widespread snow for this week, after the last solar lare had hit!

Quantum
15 January 2014 17:09:20



According to Exacta, a solar flare is to blame for cancelling the easterly (see the PDF linked to in this tweet).

https://twitter.com/Exacta_Weather/status/423194317167923200

I'm not sure what cancelled the November and December snow, though.


 


But it was cold in the USA, so of course he claims to be a weather guru. Though I don't see how his forecasts came up with record breaking cold weather in both the US and Europe for most of the winter. I can't think of many synoptics that would produce that.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 



Doesn't explain why last weekend he will still banging on about cold and widespread snow for this week, after the last solar lare had hit!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The media should give the metoffice more coverage, and these independant thingies less. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
15 January 2014 18:28:04

N Miller keeps mentioning last year,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,with a grin


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
15 January 2014 23:30:47

Just watched One Wild Winter and they were explaining how last years SSW took the Met office by surprise ??? did it?


Showed how the Votex split and never really recovered , hence all our cold air.


Old news but worth a mention


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
16 January 2014 02:20:12

"UK Outlook for Monday 20 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 29 Jan 2014:


Remaining changeable at first, with bright or sunny spells and showers. The far northeast may see some persistent rain, still with a risk of gales, while towards the southeast it may be mainly dry. By the middle of the week, a change to more unsettled conditions is expected with bands of rain spreading eastwards interspersed with clearer, more showery spells. There is a risk of hill snow in the north and perhaps also to lower levels at times. It will become windier for all areas, especially in the north and west, with a risk of gales. Temperatures will be near or slightly below average with overnight frost and patchy fog likely in the clearer spells.


UK Outlook for Thursday 30 Jan 2014 to Thursday 13 Feb 2014:


Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting through the end of January and into early February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, meaning that temperatures overall may well be near or a little below normal.


Issued at: 0400 on Thu 16 Jan 2014"


 


Metoffice forecast. 


 


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
16 January 2014 18:31:52

D Bett showed Sunday with strong Easterly winds from Northern parts of EA Northwards


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arcus
16 January 2014 19:18:48


D Bett showed Sunday with strong Easterly winds from Northern parts of EA Northwards


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes, it's noticable that the forecast for Sunday issued by the MetO has changed completely for my neck of the woods. Earlier today it was sunny with a few showers, winds from the west. Now it's rain on and off for most of the day with a stiff wind coming in from the east. Shows how things are changing in the short to mid-term.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
cultman1
16 January 2014 19:55:50
The Daily Telegraph today is still banging on about a cold snap at the end of the month,sting in the tail etc, yet posters on TWO still imply mild conditions right into February (as a rule of thumb). Are there signs of a proper change?
Rob K
16 January 2014 19:59:04

The Daily Telegraph today is still banging on about a cold snap at the end of the month,sting in the tail etc, yet posters on TWO still imply mild conditions right into February (as a rule of thumb). Are there signs of a proper change?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


I don't think anyone is suggesting mild conditions right into February. Most people seem to be stressing the uncertainty rather than a definite zonal outlook.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
16 January 2014 22:39:03

D Bett at 22:30


" winds from the South"


Yet the wind arrows were coming across the N Sea from Denmark


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
16 January 2014 23:01:21


D Bett at 22:30


" winds from the South"


Yet the wind arrows were coming across the N Sea from Denmark


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Where the forecasters and maps disagree, rule of thumb is to go with what the forecaster is saying. Same on the metoffice website, text forecasts are always the way to go. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
16 January 2014 23:08:15



D Bett at 22:30


" winds from the South"


Yet the wind arrows were coming across the N Sea from Denmark


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Where the forecasters and maps disagree, rule of thumb is to go with what the forecaster is saying. Same on the metoffice website, text forecasts are always the way to go. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Poor


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arcus
17 January 2014 07:25:00



D Bett showed Sunday with strong Easterly winds from Northern parts of EA Northwards


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Yes, it's noticable that the forecast for Sunday issued by the MetO has changed completely for my neck of the woods. Earlier today it was sunny with a few showers, winds from the west. Now it's rain on and off for most of the day with a stiff wind coming in from the east. Shows how things are changing in the short to mid-term.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


...and back we go again. Sunday now forecast to be mainly sunny and dry, as the pattern shifts eastward once more. When the music stops, the forecast sticks.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Quantum
17 January 2014 11:19:01




D Bett at 22:30


" winds from the South"


Yet the wind arrows were coming across the N Sea from Denmark


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Where the forecasters and maps disagree, rule of thumb is to go with what the forecaster is saying. Same on the metoffice website, text forecasts are always the way to go. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Poor


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


What do you mean? I thought this was standard, the maps the BBC use are going to be based on model data,what the forecasters are saying is the mets intepretation, and perhaps something more up to date which is why its important to listen to forecasts as well as watch the graphics. What do you mean poor? One word answers are never helpful, they just make more effort because they need to be clarified. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
17 January 2014 11:23:50
I think he meant it was "poor" that out-of-date or incorrect maps are used that disagree with what the forecaster was saying. And if so then I agree. Surely in this day and age, maps can be modified and tweaked or completely redrawn in minutes if necessary?

50 years ago you had people drawing isobars on a glass screen with a pen, live on telly. At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
17 January 2014 11:27:37

At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Even if the actual weather didn't




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
17 January 2014 11:29:45


At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Even if the actual weather didn't



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not the Corporation's fault if the weather is faulty.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
17 January 2014 11:29:55

I think he meant it was "poor" that out-of-date or incorrect maps are used that disagree with what the forecaster was saying. And if so then I agree. Surely in this day and age, maps can be modified and tweaked or completely redrawn in minutes if necessary? 50 years ago you had people drawing isobars on a glass screen with a pen, live on telly. At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I think even the most specific hi res models only update four times a day, perhaps its too much of a hassle to tweak the processed graphics so much, particualrly if they are nearly always fine. I tend to think of the maps more as a guide anyway, and try to listen to what the forecaster is saying. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
17 January 2014 12:55:58

I think he meant it was "poor" that out-of-date or incorrect maps are used that disagree with what the forecaster was saying. And if so then I agree. Surely in this day and age, maps can be modified and tweaked or completely redrawn in minutes if necessary? 50 years ago you had people drawing isobars on a glass screen with a pen, live on telly. At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I did indeed Rob, how can the forecaster say one thing when the chart behind shows something different


 


so ...................poor


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 January 2014 12:57:01


I think he meant it was "poor" that out-of-date or incorrect maps are used that disagree with what the forecaster was saying. And if so then I agree. Surely in this day and age, maps can be modified and tweaked or completely redrawn in minutes if necessary? 50 years ago you had people drawing isobars on a glass screen with a pen, live on telly. At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think even the most specific hi res models only update four times a day, perhaps its too much of a hassle to tweak the processed graphics so much, particualrly if they are nearly always fine. I tend to think of the maps more as a guide anyway, and try to listen to what the forecaster is saying. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


A guide


 


How can it be a guide when the winds were from Denmark and Betty boy says " winds from the South"


 


Come off it Q


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 January 2014 12:58:39

Actually the forecaster would be better off saying nothing about wind direction.


 


Of course he could have been honest and said the chart behind me is crap  so ignore the wind direction.............


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
17 January 2014 13:01:14



I think he meant it was "poor" that out-of-date or incorrect maps are used that disagree with what the forecaster was saying. And if so then I agree. Surely in this day and age, maps can be modified and tweaked or completely redrawn in minutes if necessary? 50 years ago you had people drawing isobars on a glass screen with a pen, live on telly. At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I think even the most specific hi res models only update four times a day, perhaps its too much of a hassle to tweak the processed graphics so much, particualrly if they are nearly always fine. I tend to think of the maps more as a guide anyway, and try to listen to what the forecaster is saying. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


A guide


 


How can it be a guide when the winds were from Denmark and Betty boy says " winds from the South"


 


Come off it Q


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Because the models are clearly struggling with the sitation at the moment. I haven't seen so much disagreement in years, and that is saying something considering how much the models have improved, since, say 2005. If the maps have easterly winds, and the presenter says southerly winds; then its best to plump with the presenter. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
17 January 2014 13:03:09


Actually the forecaster would be better off saying nothing about wind direction.


 


Of course he could have been honest and said the chart behind me is crap  so ignore the wind direction.............


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Sometimes they do, especially when the maps are showing the Low res UKMO model. I can understand why the BBC doesn't bother to tweak the models that update 4 times a day. The amount of effort would be excessive, when they are usually very accurate. Instead the presenter can just say what the current intepratation is, listening to what the forecaster says gives far more insight than the BBC maps which you can probably get on weatheronline.co.uk under NMM or something. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
17 January 2014 13:17:34




I think he meant it was "poor" that out-of-date or incorrect maps are used that disagree with what the forecaster was saying. And if so then I agree. Surely in this day and age, maps can be modified and tweaked or completely redrawn in minutes if necessary? 50 years ago you had people drawing isobars on a glass screen with a pen, live on telly. At least those maps agreed with what they were saying!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think even the most specific hi res models only update four times a day, perhaps its too much of a hassle to tweak the processed graphics so much, particualrly if they are nearly always fine. I tend to think of the maps more as a guide anyway, and try to listen to what the forecaster is saying. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


A guide


 


How can it be a guide when the winds were from Denmark and Betty boy says " winds from the South"


 


Come off it Q


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Because the models are clearly struggling with the sitation at the moment. I haven't seen so much disagreement in years, and that is saying something considering how much the models have improved, since, say 2005. If the maps have easterly winds, and the presenter says southerly winds; then its best to plump with the presenter


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I'm not arguing that , I am saying it looks poor, and makes him look foolish IMO


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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