Which way will the dice fall over the next couple of days - double 1 or double six?

Just love these threads don't you !

Onwards

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The way things have gone so far, someone will throw the dice and the spots will fall off, leaving a double blank!

Still, I am getting to see some of the white stuff in Copenhagen today and there is always the slight hope of a genuine easterly outbreak down the line.

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This is an awesome bit of model watching. It would be so boring if there was never a struggle or battle! Really good opportunity to root for the underdog here, 12Z is certainly an improvement anyway, that jet stream gets right into North africa! 

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Yes, great fun, a bit like watching a steeplechase slowed down by a multiple of 5000.  And of course the favourite is over the last in front.

 

Can't say I agree with you there, Quantum. Nothing like watching a cold spell appear in FI, then firm-up & even improve as the time approaches.

Since joining here in 2001, I've done more than my fair share of scratching round in the models looking for cold in a mire of zonal gunk, and having tentative hopes dashed.

 

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Yeh but you have to admit, this 12Z was an epic last stand battle between the atlantic and europe, even if it doesn't really bring any cold for us. It does represent a pretty big upgrade though. In the long term we could even start to get height rises in E greenland. 

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At the very least the zonalcoaster is slowing down, and things are struggling to get through. The wavy jet will presumably effect the stratosphere eventually and possibly cause warming. I think February is still all to play for, maybe even end of January. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011312/UW120-21.GIF?13-17

Something very close to good on the UKMO 120. 

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block is winning short term. trough actually getting pushed back. a bit more disruption and undercut and who knows

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

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GFS 12z run, One Step back, and otherwise mainly Cold Weather as well as Windy with heavy rain and hill snow plus some blustery rain hail and snow showers it is not mild, in FI after 240hrs turn mIld but unsettled still with high pressure Ridging in with Low Pressure ready to turn it the other way soon after!.

Temperatures either slightly above average - but often at or a few degrees Celsius colder with each passing low, on the NW flow's.

The Strong West to East Mid North Hemispheric Jetstream rides across N Atlantic with high pressure not able to push in very often from the Azores direction.

Any backers on here for GFS, it showing Consistency as it does.

But it is still quite highly possible that the Outcomes could bring in some brief ridges of Azores high for those saying they need the dry slots in between the PV Low Systems.

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Nice to see you still here in the month of January

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The General Similarity as is often viewed as shows That the UKMO is much the same upto t144 as the GFS is, The Rossby Waves along West to Eastward directed North and NW Atlantic to E N Atlantic West N Europe and the UK is shown, only much of NE Europe is expected to see Cold Siberian East SE winds and Frigid Weather, though not snowy and the winds are stronger further out from the Central 1035 mb's that is shown for Norway and Denmark to Sweden and Belarus etc this Airmass does not have a chance to disrupt the Overrall Southerly Flow East S and SE UK, while in the West and SW of the UK via large N Atlantic PV Cyclonic areas of Zonal West to SE flow at 120 and 144hrs it looks colder in SW and Western UK for that time not due to the High in NE Europe but N Atlantic NW'esterly flow or Northerly Cyclonic- that is good for cold and wintry weather!.

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The pendulum will swing back and forwards between the Atlantic LP and the HP block.However the amplitude of the swing is currently pretty small and not sufficient to bring in any easterly flow.We will see which way ECM goes as the 0h pro blocj  from 168 -240h

GFS 12z is very Atlantic dominated with plenty of wind and rain throughout.

More flooding problems should it verify.

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Speaking of wavy jets I read that there is a correlation between SSWs antecedent by about a month to strong Siberian highs and Aleutian lows. Matt Hugo posted about it + links to papers on netweather, but I got shouted at by the wife before I could read it and I haven't dared reopen it yet.

That pattern is evident in the models now.

I certainly don't see the rainfall amounts of recent times

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-120.GIF?13-0

Looks better

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECM1-120.GIF?13-0

Dark blues making it well to the south...

 

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Lol, is that twice or three times now Beast has threatened to 'see you next month' glad your both still here to commentate! 😝

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I think the ECM144h chart is rather unexpected. On a regular day you would expect it to be enough to keep this thread rather full. 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-144.GIF?13-0

Yep

Can't grumble at that

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH0-144.GIF?13-0

Cold air edging across the N Sea into Scotland

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH100-144.GIF?13-0

Quite a large bank of cold uppers stretching right back to E siberia. Things could be worse. 

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LOL at ECM 144

Lazarus?

 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-168.GIF?13-0

Still not a bad run from ECM

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