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The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:36:06

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-168.GIF?13-0


Fat lady has been squashed

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
13 January 2014 18:38:47

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-168.GIF?13-0


I see some real options here. 


The issue is we are relying on 'warm' 500s in scandanavia, and 'cold' 500s in Europe. That's all very well, but eventually the supplies of LP over Europe will die out causing the scandi HP to collapse, since it itself isn't really that strong (no magic 552 isopleth). However, if we can get some height rises over greenland; there is some really cold air over siberia that could start to drain our way and promote some severe (rather than mild) cold. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:39:21

Shame we dont know what UKMO 168 looks like. Perhaps Fergusson will impart his pearls of wisdom later


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:43:51

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-192.GIF?13-0


The Beast is back!


Oh God, back on the emotional rollercoaster again

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
13 January 2014 18:44:03

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-192.GIF?13-0


Still decent from ECM

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
13 January 2014 18:44:14

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-192.GIF?13-0


OMG this is nearly 2010esque a week or so before it got cold. 


if we can just get some of those greens over greenland 


Look at that depression in the baffin and its southerly orientation; loads of welcome WAA!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
13 January 2014 18:45:06


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-192.GIF?13-0


The Beast is back!


Oh God, back on the emotional rollercoaster again


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I have been sat on it for days. You back then or will be see you in 18 days

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:47:40

Probably a massive outlier

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
13 January 2014 18:48:46

http://oi39.tinypic.com/1y3i50.jpg


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:50:03


http://oi39.tinypic.com/1y3i50.jpg



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


For one night only.......

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
13 January 2014 18:51:07

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-216.GIF?13-0


Atlantic still at bay , we have a slack Easterly flow , plenty of time for cold to develop

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:51:31

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-216.GIF?13-0


Not a sinker. snow for the Jocks and northerners

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
13 January 2014 18:51:37

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-216.GIF?13-0


OK, that LP over the barents north of russia; what we want is for it to dive south and cut our scandi ridge in half; sending the bit on our side directly to greenland; ending the period of faux cold and opening the floodgates to siberia. 


Or.. the LP just pushes our scandi HP south into Europe 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Hungry Tiger
13 January 2014 18:53:38

Whatever the results - this is pointing tentatively at a cold February and that has been hinted at for some time.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:53:55

I think the Daily Express has hacked into the EC server


I cant believe it.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
jondg14
13 January 2014 18:55:55


http://oi39.tinypic.com/1y3i50.jpg



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


A good ol' battle is shaping up again. Not seeing a dominant Scandi high yet but the Atlantic isn't bludgeoning it's way through either. Eventually pretty cold uppers cover the whole UK on this run.


The roller coaster that just keeps on rolling!


 

The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:57:00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-240.GIF?13-0


 


Holy Cow


Yeah right, pull the other one!

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
13 January 2014 18:57:21

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-240.GIF?13-0


Certainly can't grumble at that


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH0-240.GIF?13-0


And with cold air

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
13 January 2014 18:58:09


I think the Daily Express has hacked into the EC server


I cant believe it.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


http://preview.images.memegenerator.net/Instance/Preview?imageID=1148734&generatorTypeID=&panels=&text0=One%20does%20not%20simply&text1=hack%20into%20ecmwf&text2=&text3=


I think the possibilities here are much greater than a pathetic scandi HP though. 


http://www2.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS_Global/2010111818_1_nh.gif


This was November 2010 before the real cold started.


Notice the scandanavian high, bringing quasi cold air to the UK. Of course there was a much bigger prize waiting to its north. 


Once the scandi high was bisected and terminated, this happened


http://www2.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS_Global/2010112300_1_nh.gif


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 18:58:32

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECM0-240.GIF?13-0


I need to lie down now

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
David M Porter
13 January 2014 18:59:09


I think the Daily Express has hacked into the EC server


I cant believe it.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Either the Daily Express has hacked into it, or James Madden has.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
13 January 2014 18:59:25

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-240.GIF?13-0


OMG OMG


ITS BEEN BISECTED


2010 here we come!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Phil G
13 January 2014 19:00:17
jondg14
13 January 2014 19:00:39

A good looking chart at 240h for a more prolonged cold spell


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECH1-240.GIF?13-0


Heights rising over the pole with a nicely split vortex as can be seen on this 


http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf100f240.gif


Shame it's all at 240h but at least the promising signs start earlier on!

doctormog
13 January 2014 19:01:06
One run, one model (albeit the most reliable one). Just one of many options on the table but I guess at least it is still an option. In the big picture, in isolation, it is interesting but as yet little more than that.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
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