party pooper

A major swing of the pendulum with Atlantic going dead at 240h. Wiil ECM be followed by other models? .Will the easterly persist into reliably timeframe(96H)?.Or our we looking at another mirage- a fools  easterly?

Although you could argue it is the second run after this mornings

But I take your point

Thanks a sensible post was needed!

Maybe getting a bit carried away there Quantum with 2010 comparisons! The vortex in 2010 was much weaker

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-11-21-0-0.png

I can understand some excitement in the forum though after a couple of days of disappointment. The ECM ens have never stopped showing the chance of a colder spell (they have just pushed it back and lessened it).

Its a welcome site from all the gloom we have had

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Done an annotated map of 240, its unfortunate its so far out, because this map shows so much potential. In paricular we have a situation that could transition from something fairly benign (abeilt cold enough for snow showers) into something much more interesting. 

What I like about this chart is that at the same time 24 hrs ago the UK trough just managed to spit a little energy south into central Spain, which at least indicated the Atlantic wasn't enjoying a trouble-free passage eastwards. But today the whole trough is pointing SSEwards, right at the Balearics and potentially the rest of the Med.

What I'm trying to say is that, never mind the post-day 5 eye candy on offer, in the nearer term the models are gradually and plausibly calculating a route from the default westerly regime to an abnormal, easterly set-up.

GFS 120h http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011312/gfs-0-120.png?12

UKMO 120h http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011312/UW120-21.GIF?13-18

ECM 120h http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECM1-120.GIF?13-0

Big differences at 120h. So often I've seen people here talking about UKMO showing a blended solution of GFS & ECM and this is a perfect example. Whether that makes it the most likely solution I don't know but I would hazard a guess and say GFS is being overly progressive (shocker) and ECM is too strong on the blocking.

Probably not an unreasonable statement - not sure if the stats back it up but I do recall someone saying ECM tends to overplay HP a bit, particularly further in FI. GFS of course tends to have the reverse issue

Overall though not surprising to see ECM showing a cold run as the potential is still there (even on GFS, particularly if it *is* overplaying the amount of energy and how much goes North of the block).

Whether said potential is realised, particularly against the back drop of the active Atlantic we've had recently is of course the question

Here we go again, wasn't it about this time last week ECM was toying with the easterly then backed off through the week? Would be great if ECM is right but some real disagreement going on in the models so I'd want to see 2-3 days of this with cross model agreement after the ECM big dipper of last week!  Nice to see but I'd like it all in the nearer time frame but let's see what tomorrow brings, hopefully not some razor blades

Well only verification stats for specific biases avalible to 120h so idk.

But to be fair, the GFS12z trended in the right direction too, it was much more of a struggle for the atlantic than it was on the 6Z. 

It will be gone from Fantasy Island tomorrow as a new mirage appears, perhaps this time of a Scandinavian beauty, scantily clad, just for Beast.

Verification at 8 days (+192), SLP over the NH, 00z over past month:

ECM 0.688

GFS 0.631

GEM 0.599

Verification at 10 days (+240), SLP over the NH, 00z over past month:

ECM 0.523

GFS 0.419

GEM 0.445

Verification at 8 days (+192), SLP over the NH, 12z over past month:

ECM 0.669

GFS 0.623

GEM 0.631

Verification at 10 days (+240), SLP over the NH, 12z over past month:

ECM 0.491

GFS 0.422

GEM 0.457

Just checking back on those stats Nick, the sample size for GEM is only 9 rather than 31 for some reason, so GEM's verification is to be taken with a pinch of salt.

No but I mean, the verification stats only tell you where the models over or under predict specific pressure patterns up to 120h. 

Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday January 13th 2014.

All models show a similar pattern with just small differences on specifics for the next 6-7 days. Low pressure remains the driving force of the UK weather over this period with tomorrow offering the best day's weather as a weak ridge crosses East over the UK. By Wednesday Low pressure sends troughs NE across the UK followed by further unsettled weather with rain or showers at times. With Low pressure becoming slack and slow moving over or close to the UK later in the week areas of rain and showers will be slow moving in lighter winds which while heavy and even thundery in places will affect only limited places with plenty of dry weather around too for some. Temperatures will be non problematic on the whole though some frost at night could develop under clear skies and light winds here and there.

GFS then shows next week with continuing changeable conditions with winds largely between West and NW bringing rain and showers at times with the heaviest rainfalls gradually transferring more towards the North and West with time. All this due to Low pressure areas continuing to cross East just to the North of the UK and sending associated rain bearing troughs across the nation with sunshine and showers in average temperatures.

The GFS Ensembles continue the very average levels that have become the norm for much of this Winter Season. With plenty of rainfall shown nationwide spread throughout the run the Atlantic flow of Low pressure and troughs remains stubbornly persistent for all parts of the UK hindering any chance of any major improvement in alleviating the water from flood plains anytime soon.

UKMO tonight ends it's run with a slack Westerly flow under Low pressure with some dry weather but also a fair chance of heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain continuing to plague the UK with temperatures close to the average for mid January.

GEM maintains Low pressure close to or over the UK with rain and showers for all continuing throughout the run with some heavy rain at times and just brief drier spells from a transitory ridge early next week.

NAVGEM also shows deep Low pressure close to Southern Britain moving away slowly next week but maintaining showers or longer spells of rain in temperatures close to or a little below average.

ECM tonight shows a cold SE breeze developing early next week as Low pressure transfers position from being over the UK to slipping SE to the SW of the UK by midweek. Some heavy rain or showers is very likely for many before drier weather eases down from the North with frost by night becoming much more of an issue. By the end of the run slack Low pressure to the SW and equally slack High pressure to the North setting up something rather colder from the East with the risk of wintry showers in the South.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue the theme of this morning with the bias of members showing a UK based trough as the most likely scenario through the middle of next week with Low pressure to the NW through the UK to the Med and High pressure well to the SW and NE too far away to be of a direct influence to the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream forecast from GFS show the flow riding across the Atlantic and then turning SE to the SW of the UK then East across Southern Europe. This general pattern is maintained through the period of the output which is hardly surprising given the uniformity of conditions for the UK shown by tonight's model output.

In Summary tonight the weather remains very changeable with rain at times, some of which will be heavy and prolonged but with an equal mix of drier interludes shown by some charts too. Temperatures look like never straying far from the long term average for this time in Winter. ECM has thrown a curve ball with it's operational tonight enhancing the effects of rising pressure from the North and lower pressure to the South next week resulting in an Easterly flow and even the risk of a wintry shower or two should it verify.

Its actually worth simply looking at T120 on any model and almost disregarding anything beyond it. The trend being established at that range is where I usually aim my assessments, not the selection of various perturbations at long range which might or might not show the extended evolution. For example, the meto 0z was keen to establish a Scandi HP at T120. That, in itself, should be cause for encouragement