The long term signal for a block somewhere to our NE remains this morning.
While it's looking like a case of 'close but no cigar' in the next 10 days, ECM shows LP on the slide again on day 10 and with an amplifying pattern upstream that could generate a ridge over the top of our slider, then enticing the Russia/Scandi block westward.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser
Well, GFS just got the cigar out, and so did UKMO!
Still not close enough on GFS, but UKMO looks decent thanks to much less troughing above the Scandi High, with quite high heights getting to Svalbard. In fact, I daresday it looks very good indeed!
We're once again seeing hints of the mid-Atlantic ridge enticing the Scandi block west, except that it's more of an Azores Ridge as the GFS and UKMO output stands.
If that bit of residual energy would just slip nicely SE, or at least pull out NW...
I know that any initial easterly isn't looking like anything special, but if we could get that block level with Svalbard, then the potential arises for swinging some new cold through the continent and towards our shores.
ECM rolling out... looking decent for WAA but as TBFTE just pointed out, the trough disruption is not nearly as good.
We could still get somewhere with that bit of energy dropping south, though... waiting and wondering.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser