theweatheroutlook

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johnm1976
14 January 2014 12:40:28


Until the 12Z comes out, and offers a '300' style battle here is something to keep you interested.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011406/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Do you have acess to strat modelling on GEFS? Would beinterested to know if they back the trend.

Quantum
14 January 2014 12:47:34



Until the 12Z comes out, and offers a '300' style battle here is something to keep you interested.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011406/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


 


Originally Posted by: johnm1976 


Do you have acess to strat modelling on GEFS? Would beinterested to know if they back the trend.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I've checked the NCEP server, and yes that capability does exist. If no website offers it, ill plot them using GRADS tonight for the 12z suite when I have my laptop. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
JACKO4EVER
14 January 2014 12:59:45

Thankfully after Wednesday nights rain - it does look like a drier outlook (despite being under Low Pressure)

small bands of showers rather than large systems of rain look to be the order of the day, which should allow for rivers to empy a bit more. It will be cool though - enough for some snow on the hills in the north.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Yep, quite agree. A drier interlude does now look likely but how long the Atlantic can be held off is anyone's guess. The odd night frost may also be thrown in to keep the coldies happy
Maunder Minimum
14 January 2014 13:21:15

Thankfully after Wednesday nights rain - it does look like a drier outlook (despite being under Low Pressure) small bands of showers rather than large systems of rain look to be the order of the day, which should allow for rivers to empy a bit more. It will be cool though - enough for some snow on the hills in the north.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Yep, quite agree. A drier interlude does now look likely but how long the Atlantic can be held off is anyone's guess. The odd night frost may also be thrown in to keep the coldies happy

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Takes a lot more than that to keep us lot happy, I can tell you...


What we need to be happy, is a prolonged outbreak of and .

New world order coming.
johnm1976
14 January 2014 13:32:31




Until the 12Z comes out, and offers a '300' style battle here is something to keep you interested.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011406/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Do you have acess to strat modelling on GEFS? Would beinterested to know if they back the trend.


Originally Posted by: johnm1976 


I've checked the NCEP server, and yes that capability does exist. If no website offers it, ill plot them using GRADS tonight for the 12z suite when I have my laptop. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Thanks Quantum. I think while trop modelling is throwing up some interesting solutions such as last night's ECM and to a less extent today's 6z GFS anyone who enjoys model watching should keep an eye on this also - winter really could have a sting in its tail....

Gooner
14 January 2014 13:40:42


Fergusson saying now only 10% chance of the easterly, in line with the ECM ens. Perhaps I'll throw in the towel with tonights 12zs


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


See you next month then

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


johnm1976
14 January 2014 14:10:35


Thankfully after Wednesday nights rain - it does look like a drier outlook (despite being under Low Pressure) small bands of showers rather than large systems of rain look to be the order of the day, which should allow for rivers to empy a bit more. It will be cool though - enough for some snow on the hills in the north.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Yep, quite agree. A drier interlude does now look likely but how long the Atlantic can be held off is anyone's guess. The odd night frost may also be thrown in to keep the coldies happy

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Are you taking the pith


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Today is a lovely day, and it looks like we'll get a bit more of the same pending the models' double personality!


Started off with a bonus ice scrape off the car, now sunny and dry IMBY. Now, I might add - minima in my postcode on metoffice were only forecast to be +4c and I live at the bottom of a hill which seems to cause a frost hollow effect, so maybe not everyone in my hood had the benefit of some morning ice, but the sunshine is welcome. Especially as the Thames is only 100m away and this time last week we had the sandbags out.


And if that SSW you were joking about (now moving closer to the reliable and strengthening somewhat at 10hPa on GFS) verifies the cold Feb that Met O mooted could yet happen.


 


 

Russwirral
14 January 2014 14:17:48


Last night, I was thinking how this 'could*' go in a similar but the complete opposite way of the beast from the east that never was last year. In that, there are ingredients there that could play into our favour. No easterly is being strongly forecast. But imagine, we see a flip similar to how the Easterly was forecast then flopped back at the 11th hour back in December 2012. Just sayin... (*Last straws have been clutched and dropped, no more straws being grasped. Literally no evidence to back this up)

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Has this ever happened? There are quite a few examples of dropped easterlies. But have they ever been picked up at the last minute? 


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


I remember a snow event which delivered the last 5"+ snow in these parts - back in March 2006 or 7 i think.  9th or 11th March if i remember correctly.


 


It was forecast within perhaps 2 days, with the charts up until that point looking very flat and boring, the European high was dominating our weather.


 


It was the slightest of easterlies, not well forecast, with the air source coming from a very cold near continent.  I remember seeing north west tonight, and they gave a quick 2 mins explaining where the cold was coming from (as it hadnt been that cold up until that night).  Essentially there was a cold pool of air - no bigger than say wales, at that time over amsterdam, it would rotate around the HP and arrive overnight just when an atlantic front pushed in from the west. 


The front stalled, we got blizzard conditions, and as the snow was so dry - really good drifts over the tops of roofs and cars.


The area of of snowfall was quite thin due to the decaying front.  The snow line ran from Mid wales, up the border, across North west England and into Cumbria.  20 miles either side saw very little or no snow, or heavy rain further west.


edit:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060314.gif


 


I think this was it.


 


Editx 2


 


This was the situation 3 days earlier


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060310.gif


 


 really not a million miles away from what we have now, or will have over the next few days, quite startling really.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Quantum
14 January 2014 15:40:21

Something very interesting showing on the 0Z NASAGEOS model (a short range high resolution model that takes much longer to run than the others)


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/geos/runs/2014011400/geos-0-120.png?14-12


This is tantamount to the ECMWF last night. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
14 January 2014 15:55:34

12z already looks more amplified

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
14 January 2014 15:58:37

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011412/gfsnh-0-96.png?12


Impressive so far

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
14 January 2014 16:04:26

Very interesting so far.....


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011412/gfsnh-0-108.png?12

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Russwirral
14 January 2014 16:06:50


Very interesting so far.....


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011412/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


The Falkland islands are in line for a pasting


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
roger63
14 January 2014 16:09:23


Very interesting so far.....


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011412/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yep it looks as if the LP is heading more SE than the last run.It's more like a slider and could let the south easterly airflow in round the top of the sinking LP.

Russwirral
14 January 2014 16:09:39
Pressure to the north looks better, pressure to the south west looks better too. Much more top heavy look to it, which is nice.

Not the final product we are looking for but i think a trend will be sought on the 18z run.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Quantum
14 January 2014 16:15:06

Lol



Looks like weve fallen in the other direction from this unstable equlibrium!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
14 January 2014 16:19:47

BTW people; I really wouldn't worry about cold uppers or that sort of thing. Once a block like this is established, getting a cold pool to the UK is relativly speaking the easy part. My favourite solution for doing that would be bisecting the scandi HP like the ECM did last night. 


Anyway 12Z, pretty big upgrade, look at those greens getting close too greenland aswell; thats extremely promising for the development of deep cold later down the line. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Karl Guille
14 January 2014 16:20:14

You really couldn't make it up as both GFS and UKMO move towards yesterday's ECM output!


 http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011412/UW120-21.GIF?14-17


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011412/gfs-0-150.png?12


 

St. Sampson
Guernsey
The Beast from the East
14 January 2014 16:20:16

ironically uppers are warmer than the 06z. But wil feel colder with the continental air. We need a trigger low to help advect some of the cold air west round the block


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
14 January 2014 16:23:34


ironically uppers are warmer than the 06z. But wil feel colder with the continental air. We need a trigger low to help advect some of the cold air west round the block


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes but, why concentrate on the scandi high when there is the potential for a far bigger prize from this kind of setup. I guess a trigger low advecting cold air west would be the 2nd best thing that could happen in the long term! 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
14 January 2014 16:24:57

cold air makes at last next tuesday


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
lezrob
14 January 2014 16:25:01
What's been Iinteresting is that the 12z has been moving closer and closer to putting the scandi high in a better position.. quote a common phrase from last winter.. slowly slowly catchy monkey
Been lurking for 7 years... Still know nothing.. Weather fascinates..
Banbury Oxon
SnowyHythe(Kent)
14 January 2014 16:25:02
Chilly continental flow, yes but a waste having a SH if there is no cold to tap into..
The Beast from the East
14 January 2014 16:26:56

And an easterly as well from UKMO, just about.


Perhaps something has changed from Fergusson's morning briefing when he said only 10% risk


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
14 January 2014 16:28:28

Low pressure over svalbard at 171h. Is this low going to be strong enough to bisect our scandi high? 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
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