http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140114/12/177/h500slp.png

YES, the scandi high is splitting!

EDIT:Atlantic too strong, so transaction cannot be completed. We need southerly winds to stay over W greenland. However the fact that we are getting the scandi high split at all is extremely encouraging and offers the possibility of some real significant winter cold. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Ho on METO not pushing as far west as GFS but encouraging.

Has all the hall marks of a model not dealing well with a Scandi high. That low at 192, seems to want to slide, and seems a little more amplified to head south, split jet (not a bad thing to feed the HP. I expect this to develop further. Very encouraging.

Experience tells me that if the Models wanted the Atlantic to storm through the signs would be a little more pronounced by now.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011412/UN144-21.GIF?14-18

That isn't bad at all from UKMO

not such a good ECM with trough disruption. No easterly this time I think

Well, GFS just got the cigar out, and so did UKMO!

Still not close enough on GFS, but UKMO looks decent thanks to much less troughing above the Scandi High, with quite high heights getting to Svalbard. In fact, I daresday it looks very good indeed!

We're once again seeing hints of the mid-Atlantic ridge enticing the Scandi block west, except that it's more of an Azores Ridge as the GFS and UKMO output stands.

If that bit of residual energy would just slip nicely SE, or at least pull out NW... 

I know that any initial easterly isn't looking like anything special, but if we could get that block level with Svalbard, then the potential arises for swinging some new cold through the continent and towards our shores.

ECM rolling out... looking decent for WAA but as TBFTE just pointed out, the trough disruption is not nearly as good.

We could still get somewhere with that bit of energy dropping south, though... waiting and wondering.

ironically ECM most progressive of the big 3 having led the way!

Just wait until that low blasts through.

It's like a woman taking her bra off, only to reveal another bra.

It's like a woman taking her bra off, only to reveal another bra.

 oh dont remind me

On topic please folks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011412/ECH1-216.GIF?14-0

NWlies for the UK

Good finish to the ECM. You can see the Scandi high edging in by about T+1600.

T +1600 is about 2 months off. Sounds about right for this year's Scandi High!

Typical capriciousness from the Euro.

Meanwhile UKMO 144 is known for its proclivity for pointed change from run to run.

GEFS are indicative of a cooler period while we temporarily come under the influence of the "poor man's easterly".

Edit - more support for UKMO - from the Chinese!:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

A step towards a cooler solution from GFS whilst ECM steps back a bit. Tis good consistency

I suspect looking back at this period on the verification stats and they'll be a noticeable dip whilst the models are getting a handle on how much energy to throw at the block and how much of said energy goes over, under or dies in situ.

Could either be an interesting if slow crawl to a cold end to the month or a slow tedious stumble back to zonality.

I do like the fact the GFS op has a few friends with it on the colder path:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

There's a small cooler/cold cluster on the 2m temps too (haven't got a link for them ones) - be interesting to see what the ECM ens show.

Also worth mentioning the GEM run I guess which really isn't having any of it and keeps the Scandi HP well away from us (comparatively). Tends to have more noticeable dips than the 'big 3' imo but verifies well and probably better than GFS if it's not on one of its lost the plot runs.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday January 14th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a warm front crossing the UK as I type with rain spilling East across the UK in rapidly turning milder weather. The South then becomes drizzly later in the night and at first tomorrow while the North sees the early night rain and hill snow continue throughout with any snow turning back to rain. Tomorrow shows a cold front moving East over the UK with showery rain as it goes clearing to showers in the West later. The rest of the week and weekend is typified by the close proximity of Low pressure with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places with some drier and brighter spells as well most likely towards the East and NE.

GFS then shows next week with colder weather making it's way across the UK from the East briefly with the threat of some wintry showers for a time as Low pressure fills it's way SE over France. It isn't long before the pattern reverts to form with Atlantic wind and rain on fronts crossing East in association with depressions to the North takes hold once more. Throughout the run apart from the brief colder interlude early next week temperatures will remain close to average with a rather chilly and strong breeze at times.

The GFS Ensembles reflect the operational run quite well tonight with unsettled and changeable weather expected for all areas through most of the time. A brief colder interlude is shown within the ensembles too early next week though most members that support this go the way of returning milder air back soon afterwards.

UKMO closes it's run with filling Low pressure sliding SE across the UK and on over Europe leaving very slack conditions across the UK with a legacy of cloud and patchy rain or even sleet in places as things turn rather colder.

GEM shows a ridge of High pressure building NE towards Southern Britain early next week with early week rain clearing to a drier and brighter phase in the South for a time. Later the weather returns changeable and wet at times again as further fronts and attendant Low pressure moves East to the North of the UK. By the end of the run winds have swung NW with sunshine and showers, wintry in the North.

NAVGEM shows a similar trend to GEM but develops the ridge less and further South meaning the path to continued Atlantic dominated weather over the UK is easier with further Low pressure areas crossing East over or to the North of the UK with rain and showers at times in average temperatures.

ECM shows largely changeable weather continuing next week. A drier interlude looks likely under a weak ridge at the start of the week before further Atlantic Low pressure continues to deliver rain at times in very average overall conditions for January though it could turn rather colder at times later next week.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts look very similar to this morning with a trough strecthing SE down the East of the Uk from Low pressure to the NW and SE and High well to the SW and NE. Scrolling between the two days shows little overall change with the Azores High notably strong.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream continues to flow to the South of the UK and Southern Europe over the coming week. Later in the output it appears that the flow may strengthen while moving across the Atlantic into the UK before once more progressing into Southern Europe.

In Summary tonight the indecision remains with regard to specific weather detail next week as approaching Atlantic depressions split with one portion sending energy NE while some energy moves SE across the UK with resultant slack pressure at times under Low pressure. As is alwas the case under these synoptics weather details are always hard to pin down with some rain and showers inevitable with some snow on Northern hills while other areas see dry and bright weather at times too. There is still some hope that something might develop from the East should more energy spill SE from these depressions than is currently shown but with the Atlantic remaining strong and some indication of a Jet flow strengthening later next week the favourite option remains for unsettled and Atlantic based weather to continue to run the show over the British Isles for the time being.

18Z GFS looks to have a much less favourable angle of the trough and a much deeper low over Canada

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

18Z is only slightly worse than the 12Z tbh, its just so finelly balanced it doesn't take much to push it over the other way. But tbh the odds are strongly in favour of the pest from the west winning over the beast from the east atm. ECM0Z to save the day? Perhaps, perhaps not?