Good morning. Here is the report on this morning's output of the NWP for today Wednesday January 15th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show Low pressure over the Atlantic gradually drifting in closer to the UK over the next day or two. As a result today's mild and damp conditions will change to somewhat cooler and more showery conditions from the West from later today. The showers will be heavy in places and focused most on the South and west of the UK with some Northern and Eastern areas seeing a fair amount of dry weather. By Saturday Low pressure remains close to the West of the UK with a new frontal feature moving NNE across the UK with further heavy rain likely over England and parts of Wales with Sunday too seeing further unsettled weather for all in light winds and temperatures near to or just a little below average as Low pressure fills and slides SE.
GFS then shows new Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of the UK through next week, each dragging troughs East across Britain continuing to bring rain and showers at times in basically Westerly winds with temperatures quite close to the seasonal average.
The GFS Ensembles show little evidence of any significant change in the unsettled pattern this morning under temperatures largely close to average. There may be some cooler and blustery intervals in showery NW winds but no substantial cold events look likely.
UKMO shows a weak ridge across the UK with the UK itself in a 'col' type situation where almost anything goes but the most likely event will see a rather cold and dry interlude with a night frost but a dry bright day perhaps with a shower, wintry on hills.
GEM shows the unsettled weather giving way from the North to a colder Easterly flow next week with some wintry showers in the East and South with frost developing at night especially in the clearer North.
NAVGEM shows Low pressure up to the NW of the UK by midweek with a broad Westerly flow. The unsettled weather of early in the week will be superseded by the effects of fresher Atlantic winds and further rain bearing troughs crossing East over all areas as Low pressure maintains the upper hand as far as the UK is concerned.
ECM this morning keeps very unsettled weather going with deep Low pressure areas continuing to affect all areas of the UK throughout the week with spells of rain, heavy at times accompanied by strong Westerly winds at times too. On the plus side temperatures do not look like being far from the January average.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today show a bias favouring a trough down the North Sea connected to Low pressure most likely towards the NW of the UK. This as of the last few outputs closes the door on any cold from the East and most likely maintains the unsettled theme across the UK with rain at times in average temperatures and Westerly winds.
The Jet Stream continues to blow across the Atlantic, turning Southeast to the South of the UK and then over Southern Europe. This pattern is maintained into the start of next week. Later next week the flow looks like strengthening again and piling East across the Atlantic and across the UK.
In Summary the weather remains very unsettled over the next two weeks with Low pressure never straying far from the UK shores throughout the period. The thrust of energy from these Lows is SE'wards for the next 5-6 days before the thrust then looks more East to the North of Scotland next week with an increase of Westerly winds likely at times, giving rise to somewhat more mobility allowing systems to pass through more quickly with time though still with only short drier spells in between. There is nothing again to suggest any change to colder conditions of note anytime soon from this morning's output with the glimmer of hope from the GEM operational looking the only straw to clutch this morning.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset