Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 15th 2014.
All models show Low pressure in control of the weather over the UK from now until the end of the weekend as it's position moves in close to the United Kingdom reinforced by secondary features moving within it's circulation at times. After today's mildness and drizzly rain the weather will turn a little cooler and more showery with the concentration of showers close to the windward exposures of the South and West of Britain with some lengthy drier and brighter spells at times in the NE. By Saturday a new area of Low pressure moving North over the UK could give some more significant rainfall and flooding issues in places before a return to more showery weather looks likely over Sunday.
GFS shows next week with the trend towards windier conditions developing later in the week with further showers and outbreaks of rain as Low pressure moves ESE across the far North and sends troughs quickly East across the UK with temperatures remaining very close to average.
The GFS Ensembles shows no change in the overall pattern with just a short relaxation in precipitation amounts early next week. Temperatures remain very respectable given the time of year but with little respite for those flood stricken areas looking likely.
UKMO tonight shows yet another Low pressure area moving ESE into Northern Ireland with fresh Westerly winds to the South bringing rain and showers across the UK yet again next Tuesday with the real prospect shown by the Day 6 chart of another quite wet and windy week being likely throughout next week too.
GEM shows Low pressure sinking slowly SE across the UK next week, filling slowly but taking until the very end of the run to bring any significant improvements to the wet and windy period for much of next week as a weak High pressure ridge topples down over the UK by next weekend.
NAVGEM also shows UK based Low pressure into the middle of next week with further rain and showers for all in average temperatures.
ECM is very changeable again tonight with Low pressure areas continuing to dominate conditions over the UK as they trundle down from the WNW over Northern Britain. A few drier intervals are shown on the exit of next weeks depression but the pattern shown suggests that any improvements late in the run look very short-lived.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart shows the most likely scenario in 9 or 10 days time with the UK biased towards an increasingly mobile Westerly flow between a classic UK winter pattern of High pressure over the Azores and Low pressure near Iceland.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream is shown to continue crossing the Atlantic before turning South to North Africa then turning East over Europe. This general theme will continue into next week before the flow crosses the Atlantic and the UK before moving on through Europe later next week. This will probably serve to encourage more mobility of Low pressure systems and fronts through Britain rather than stalling them over us.
In Summary tonight at the risk of sounding like a broken record things remain very unsettled with rain or showers at times over the UK. Winds will become rather more blustery as we move through next week from a Westerly point so once more not desperately cold. There seems little evidence of yet of any major influence of the Azores High drying things out anytime soon or for that matter any push from the East so for the time being it's more of the same I'm afraid with rain at times continuing to be the biggest feature of the upcoming period.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY